February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like it's comparable to 2014-15 in the southern section of BC (although significantly worse everywhere else) and not quite as bad as 2004-05 in the southwest section when Vancouver Island was only 11% of average on February 1st!

Spring and summer 2005 turned really reasonable starting in mid-March. There is hope.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, umadbro said:

I was up in Port Angeles for work last week. And you’re right. It is the desert wasteland you claim it is. Nevermind the green and soggy ground. Otherwise a beautiful area.

Port Angeles =/= the foothlls towards Sequim. Precip drops rapidly every mile East you travel from downtown PA

[TT-SEA]

Live view at home... says mostly sunny and dry in caption but camera tells another story. 

And live view here.   Mostly sunny and dry would be accurate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Step back on snow amounts per 12Z ECMWF compared to 00Z run.

Wow i missed this, so euro shows 5-6 here and mm5 shows a foot. 6-10 looks very possible. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol you dudes fall for the bait every single time the GFS throws out a carrot (yesterday)

 

let's just say we were supposed to have 2-4" last night, ended up instead with .33" of rain, and still raining.

 

it ain't coming

[bainbridgekid]

24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol you dudes fall for the bait every single time the GFS throws out a carrot (yesterday)

 

let's just say we were supposed to have 2-4" last night, ended up instead with .33" of rain, and still raining.

 

it ain't coming

Analyzing and comparing runs does not mean falling for bait. It's what we do here for fun and most of us realize it's too tenuous of a pattern to get lowland snow (besides Hood Canal and the usual suspects) without quite a few things going perfectly.

[TT-SEA]

Small step back on control run but lots of EPS members still show lowland snow.   

[Slushy Inch]

EPS still looking good in the long range.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, umadbro said:

Three years ago today an epic snowstorm was underway. Central and southern valley was being destroyed by ice

We ended up with a pretty persistent but extended period of light to moderate snowfall here from the night of the 12th to the morning of the 15th

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS still looking good in the long range.

Wonderful. Thank you.

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We ended up with a pretty persistent but extended period of light to moderate snowfall here from the night of the 12th to the morning of the 15th

 

Same here. Occasional sleet mixed in during the day on the 13th but the precip was non stop. Had about the same amount of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS still looking good in the long range.

Good to see, GFS is kind of flailing in that range. 

[Slushy Inch]

Meteograms anyone?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Meteograms anyone?

Mostly 34-37 degree snow for first event.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good to see, GFS is kind of flailing in that range. 

Yes... a 50-member mean from the ECMWF suite compared to a single run of the GooFuS.     Nice to see you occasionally recognize its much more meaningful even if that only happens when you like what it shows.   

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Small step back on control run but lots of EPS members still show lowland snow.   

Let's lock in member 8, it gives me the most snow. And if not that, 38 and 44 are good too!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Let's lock in member 8, it gives me the most snow. And if not that, 38 and 44 are good too!

We need a form... everyone has to get their orders in by 5 p.m. today! 

[ShawniganLake]

18Z nam took away a lot of the snow for the central sound.  Still looks good for snowmizer

[Snowlova]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Small step back on control run but lots of EPS members still show lowland snow.   

That seems like pretty decent agreement across the board to me that at least flakes will fly. Basically every member shows at least something for Puget Sound region

[Meatyorologist]

I make a three paragraph post about how locked in the baroclinic setup is.

Next morning the models completely switch to shredding the boundary and bringing in split flow 

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

18Z nam took away a lot of the snow for the central sound.  Still looks good for snowmizer

Gfs and NAM seem to often show fake snowstorms a few days out.

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I make a three paragraph post about how locked in the baroclinic setup is.

Next morning the models completely switch to shredding the boundary and bringing in split flow 

Nino gonna Nino

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I make a three paragraph post about how locked in the baroclinic setup is.

Next morning the models completely switch to shredding the boundary and bringing in split flow 

Not sure I really saw it on Euro.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and mostly cloudy. Hope y'all are good on International Epilepsy Day. Wish I could say the same.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

wow 18z icon moves the low south into oregon and leaves western Wa high and dry. Massive move from the 12z

[ShawniganLake]

18Z ICON abandoned the Washington snow. Looks cold and dry for Washington with a potential snow event for Portland. That’s different!

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good to see, GFS is kind of flailing in that range. 

perhaps you should have compared it to the GEFS instead

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

18Z ICON abandoned the Washington snow. Looks cold and dry for Washington with a potential snow event for Portland. That’s different!

Yeah i doubt that is correct, Euro didnt move.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah i doubt that is correct, Euro didnt move.

The only other model that looks close to that suppressed is the NAVGEM

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

18Z ICON abandoned the Washington snow. Looks cold and dry for Washington with a potential snow event for Portland. That’s different!

At least this might indicate models are still in flux. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

At least this might indicate models are still in flux. 

I would imagine they are given it’s still at least 2.5 days out

[MossMan]

Drizzle! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I would imagine they are given it’s still at least 2.5 days out

Hard to imagine but sometimes they are locked in at this point

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Hard to imagine but sometimes they are locked in at this point

Not this time, not with how they are still flipping and flopping about who is in the score zone.

[Slushy Inch]

Run to run changes are big on gfs.

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS wraps up the low tighter and 5mb stronger, but that just pulls it further West and splits/shreds the baroclinic band even more as it moves into Western Washington Wednesday night leaving us drier.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Well that run kills it for my area. Hood canal special. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like it's comparable to 2014-15 in the southern section of BC (although significantly worse everywhere else) and not quite as bad as 2004-05 in the southwest section when Vancouver Island was only 11% of average on February 1st!

Northwest needs to put it together.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z GFS wraps up the low tighter and 5mb stronger, but that just pulls it further West and splits/shreds the baroclinic band even more as it moves into Western Washington Wednesday night leaving us drier.

Rough 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Well that run kills it for my area. Hood canal special. 

Pretty big pullback for them too.  Just less moisture available and the lighter precip rates won’t help much with evaporational cooling either.