Gorgeous sunset from Mt Tabor park. Lots of big, downed trees on the north and east side of the park from our ARCTIC WINDS three weeks ago. But honestly the damage wasn’t quite as bad as I feared. I guess the historic shelter took a pretty good hit but that part of the park was cordoned off.
I was intrigued so I looked up the average high and low temperatures across WA for August of 1899. Olga's average low of 45F is pretty impressive as it's about 4 degrees colder than anything we've seen in the last 50 years. The fact it's so much colder than every other location on the west side does make me wonder if there was an error with the thermometer at that time or maybe it was just incredible cold winds blowing off the straight.
The Seattle average high for the month was almost 10 d
I don’t know that the GFS and GEFS add any value to the forecast for next week, in fact they may be making the forecast worse by inflating the odds of a ridge when the superior EPS has already dropped the ridge odds down to 20% or less.
I’m not as confident as you w/rt the downstream/PNW ridge, but agree the GFS solution near/south of the Aleutians is BS. That’s a classic GFS failure mode (phasing/deepening ULLs).
The operational CMC shows how a big western ridge could legitimately happen. Very different than the GFS over the NPAC.
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