February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

That actually happened here in 1937. 26” of snow fell at Shawnigan lake on December 25th. 40” between the 23rd and 25th. Could you imagine 2+ feet of snow falling on Christmas Day.  

did the palm trees survive?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z GFS is showing some pockets of snow/ice tomorrow morning west of the Cascades and then more ice Saturday morning.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Anyone got the 18z euro kuchera maps? We might get DUMPED on tonight, anywhere from 6-11" is my guess, assuming we won't be too far south.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

33 degrees currently, high of 37, which is much cooler than forecast (called it), but our poor 5 inches of snow got rained on, and now its only 2" of snow. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Thank you for this excellent clarification.

I recently saw a nature documentary on PBS that took the "atmospheric river" metaphor to absurd lengths, with woozy new-agey narration saying that atmospheric and terrestrial rivers are just the same because they're both life-giving forces, or some such drivel.

Really makes me cringe when they do this. I'm all in favor of bringing science to the masses, but let the science stand on its own without distortion or exaggeration for dramatic purposes.

My quick hot take: some exaggeration and skipping over details is fine in the right context. I got into the weather by looking at big, dramatic storms and colorful maps. The background knowledge came secondary. Some shock and awe is just the humanity coming out... Think about the audience. Is this NatGeo at 10:30pm or an AMS conference with PhD guest speakers?

The kind of misinfo I really can't stand is political nonsense, particularly in the context of climate change, i.e.; "It's all made up," or "We'll all be dead by 2050." Bad CGI and shotty facts on atmospheric rivers aren't so bad, if it all makes for a fun program.

On a kind of related note I hate the movie Twister, not because the meteorology is unrealistic, but because the people are. They're so petty and egotistical about the whole thing. In reality we're all a bunch or goobers, storm chasers or not, staring at the sky in awe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was absolutely pouring in Linn County this afternoon.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

My quick hot take: some exaggeration and skipping over details is fine in the right context. I got into the weather by looking at big, dramatic storms and colorful maps. The background knowledge came secondary. Some shock and awe is just the humanity coming out... Think about the audience. Is this NatGeo at 10:30pm or an AMS conference with PhD guest speakers?

The kind of misinfo I really can't stand is political nonsense, particularly in the context of climate change, i.e.; "It's all made up," or "We'll all be dead by 2050." Bad CGI and shotty facts on atmospheric rivers aren't so bad, if it all makes for a fun program.

On a kind of related note I hate the movie Twister, not because the meteorology is unrealistic, but because the people are. They're so petty and egotistical about the whole thing. In reality we're all a bunch or goobers, storm chasers or not, staring at the sky in awe.

[GHweatherChris]

Surprisingly still have 2" of snow in the grass, Aberdeen proper ended up with about 1/2" total, that was all gone by the time I left work.

Also, my comment finally got approved on Cliffs blog last night, hours later lol!!

[Meatyorologist]

The drive to work today was kind of fun... My route summits both Maple Leaf and Queen Anne, so I sample the better part of 400' of elevation. The top of Queen Anne was mixing with distinct snowflakes, with some leftover white from the burst of snow last night. Dropping down to sea level in interbay there weren't even any postitive splats, and the ground was bare. Kinda cool.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Surprisingly still have 2" of snow in the grass, Aberdeen proper ended up with about 1/2" total, that was all gone by the time I left work.

Also, my comment finally got approved on Cliffs blog last night, hours later lol!!

Is this one you?

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Is this one you?

Yep lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was absolutely pouring in Linn County this afternoon.

Still pouring in Lane County. 50F in Springfield.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Pour one out for Phil

Watch this turn into a super niña, only to end up like 1933/34.  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ok so since we’re supposedly going back to a La Niña next fall/winter and a decent one at that, what is the QBO predicted to be? Or can those be predicted that far out?

Likely descending +QBO (downwelling westerlies). Still questionable whether they reach 50mb by winter or take a little longer.

Obviously, the faster they downwell, the more likely it is that next winter will be cold/blocky (assuming a niña). If it’s a lazy transition with slower descent to 50mb, it’s more likely to be a warmer/zonal outcome.

[Phishy Wx]

I've been watching this new Prototype Rapid Refresh model from NOAA this winter.  Its done really good on the events we've had over here.  this was the 15z for today, it predicted 2.6" for Spokane, officially the airport has had 2.7" as of now for today.

 

the RRFS A

 

 

[Eugene-5SW]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

My quick hot take: some exaggeration and skipping over details is fine in the right context. I got into the weather by looking at big, dramatic storms and colorful maps. The background knowledge came secondary. Some shock and awe is just the humanity coming out... Think about the audience. Is this NatGeo at 10:30pm or an AMS conference with PhD guest speakers?

The kind of misinfo I really can't stand is political nonsense, particularly in the context of climate change, i.e.; "It's all made up," or "We'll all be dead by 2050." Bad CGI and shotty facts on atmospheric rivers aren't so bad, if it all makes for a fun program.

On a kind of related note I hate the movie Twister, not because the meteorology is unrealistic, but because the people are. They're so petty and egotistical about the whole thing. In reality we're all a bunch or goobers, storm chasers or not, staring at the sky in awe.

I think it's quite possible to make "real" science accessible and entertaining for the NatGeo-level crowd without sacrificing its integrity. Plenty of examples abound. For me, much of the beauty of science is in its inherent truth. Like Neil deGrasse Tyson said, "The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it." There's no excuse to be sloppy or inaccurate.

I agree that once a scientific topic becomes politicized, it's all over. I wouldn't know where to go these days to have a meaningful, rational, entirely science-based discussion about climate change or vaccines, for example. Wish I did.

[Phishy Wx]

why are you so sad about everything I post Cascadia?  Are you depressed?  Do you need medication?

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Watch this turn into a super niña, only to end up like 1933/34.  

Sorry Phillip…Not going to happen. Going to be a December 2008 redux here next season! 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

did the palm trees survive?

28/18 that day.  Perfectly tolerable temperatures for palm trees.  Also snow is a great insulator and there was plenty of it on the ground.   

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've been watching this new Prototype Rapid Refresh model from NOAA this winter.  Its done really good on the events we've had over here.  this was the 15z for today, it predicted 2.6" for Spokane, officially the airport was had 2.7" as of now for today.

 

the RRFS A

 

 

This looks pretty close for my area today. We had about 1/2” or a little less. The hills to our SW look like they probably had 1-1.5”. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

28/18 that day.  Perfectly tolerable temperatures for palm trees.  Also snow is a great insulator and there was plenty of it on the ground.   

Took this photo this weekend in Seattle and your profile reminded of it. Looks just like Miami!!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

why are you so sad about everything I post Cascadia?  Are you depressed?  Do you need medication?

Probably. He'll get sad over someone even mentioning wanting sunshine and spring weather, in spring.... or he'll give them the weenie reaction.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Took this photo this weekend in Seattle and your profile reminded of it. Looks just like Miami!!

The ones along the beaches in Vancouver are much healthier and more mature looking.  They have been planted in lots of public spaces starting in 1989. 
 

 

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The ones along the beaches in Vancouver are much healthier and more mature looking.  They have been planted in lots of public spaces starting in 1989. 
 

 

Looks like the key to healthy palms might be goose poop. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

52 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

why are you so sad about everything I post Cascadia?  Are you depressed?  Do you need medication?

Just matching what I assume to be the tone of your posts.

I would have been pretty thrilled to get the storm you did today  

[Cascadia_Wx]

I do like that it’s cool to question people’s mental health and suggest they get on meds now, based on react emojis

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Likely descending +QBO (downwelling westerlies). Still questionable whether they reach 50mb by winter or take a little longer.

Obviously, the faster they downwell, the more likely it is that next winter will be cold/blocky (assuming a niña). If it’s a lazy transition with slower descent to 50mb, it’s more likely to be a warmer/zonal outcome.

Layman’s terms? So it likely is going to be a +QBO? Just don’t know when? 

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I do like that it’s cool to question people’s mental health and suggest they get on meds now, based on react emojis

Ya, I didn't know that emojis would cause someone to question mental health lol!!

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just matching what I assume to be the tone of your posts.

I would have been pretty thrilled to get the storm you did today  

investigating a new model does not imply i'm sad, not sure where you got that.  seems like it was pretty accurate. what i've noticed from other events this winter, close on those too.

Cheers

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, I didn't know that emojis would cause someone to question mental health lol!!

nah he tags all my posts with a frown.  wanted to make sure he wasn't reaching out for help or implying I needed it

[Phishy Wx]

Sunriver is now also on Team Sad

[umadbro]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

why are you so sad about everything I post Cascadia?  Are you depressed?  Do you need medication?

He needs attention. This is the only place he gets it.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Sunriver is now also on Team Sad

It was a joke...

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

investigating a new model does not imply i'm sad, not sure where you got that.  seems like it was pretty accurate. what i've noticed from other events this winter, close on those too.

Cheers

Cheers  

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

It was a joke...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, I didn't know that emojis would cause someone to question mental health lol!!

React emojis are more triggering than palm trees I guess  

[MossMan]

Yep…Storms over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a wet night down south. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Temp is 28 with moderate snow with about an inch new on top of yesterdays 5 which had mostly melted today. Expecting it to snow through the night til about dawn or so. Local Mets say about 4-8”. Shouldn’t go anywhere the next few days as high temps struggle to reach freezing both days, except for the usual streets and blacktops due to solar heating. Nice little winter over considering it’s an El Niño. About to hit my seasonal average of 24”. 
 

I have a feeling about next winter. With us plunging into a moderate La Niña (most likely) after this El Niño. Hoping for a +QBO to go with it. Phil explained it earlier but didn’t get all the lingo. So to anyone else, can they predict a qbo out to next winter like they do enso?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a wet night down south. 

Well it's better than the 40+ 90F burgers.