February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Snowier than the 12z by a fair margin and it was snowier than last night's run.

Looks good. Post the ensembles please when they drop

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wind is BACK!

Wooopy....

Another F'd up low temp.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks good. Post the ensembles please when they drop

That is ensemble you mean meteogram?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is too warm for lowland snow.  Probably wouldn't even be sticking snow here with strong S and SW wind starting Sunday through the end of the run.  Would also make it impossible to go below freezing. 

The situation is evolving.  Very high potential.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Wooopy....

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The situation is evolving.  Very high potential.

Not unless we can get systems to come in to the south.   Going to need much more digging.  Right now it looks like a cold onshore flow and strong wind situation.  Absolutely stellar for the mountains though.   A week of that pattern could make up snowpack deficits in a hurry.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not unless we can get systems to come in to the south.   Going to need much more digging.  Right now it looks like a cold onshore flow and strong wind situation.  Absolutely stellar for the mountains though.   A week of that pattern could make up snowpack deficits in a hurry.

Should be few more Arctic members on this eps run. Going to post meteogram soon.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snowier than the 12z by a fair margin and it was snowier than last night's run.

2 feet over me, and 65 inches at mt hood! This is an AMAZING ensemble run, this would bring the mountain snowpack above average!

 

This is 100% coming and will verify because ECMWF/EPS have the highest verification rates, so they'll be right this time. The only time the GFS is more accurate than the euro is when the gfs shows more snow

[Slushy Inch]

Still not that exciting. But a few in there with sub 40 highs and mid 20s

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS saves us again! 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Should be few more Arctic members on this eps run. Going to post meteogram soon.

Maybe... but doesn't seem like an arctic air pattern.   At least not yet.    

But I think cold onshore flow is the best situation right now anyways for snowpack.  

[snow_wizard]

Getting really good!

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not unless we can get systems to come in to the south.   Going to need much more digging.  Right now it looks like a cold onshore flow and strong wind situation.  Absolutely stellar for the mountains though.   A week of that pattern could make up snowpack deficits in a hurry.

We can get snow with onshore flow.  I'm sure you know that.

[Dave]

I have my interior thermostat set at 70 degrees. It's crazy how much warmer it feels inside when it is warmish outside. If it is 30 degrees outside with obviously low dew points I need a warm sweatshirt inside at 70 degrees. If it is 55 degrees and raining, I am warm in just a t-shirt despite the inside temperature being the same. Dew points are a huge factor even when it isn't 90 degrees out.

[snow_wizard]

A very good number of members that go below 25 on this run.  The mean spits out a 42/29 for SEA which is way below normal for early March.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We can get snow with onshore flow.  I'm sure you know that.

It's very hard to get sticking snow in my backyard at any time of the year with a strong SW wind and that is what the ECMWF shows from Sun-Wed.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Dave said:

I have my interior thermostat set at 70 degrees. It's crazy how much warmer it feels inside when it is warmish outside. If it is 30 degrees outside with obviously low dew points I need a warm sweatshirt inside at 70 degrees. If it is 55 degrees and raining, I am warm in just a t-shirt despite the inside temperature being the same. Dew points are a huge factor even when it isn't 90 degrees out.

I think it has to do with the dp.  When the already dry air gets dried out even more in the house it makes it seem cooler than when the air is more damp.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's very hard to get sticking snow in my backyard at any time of the year with strong SW wind and that is what the ECMWF shows from Sun-Wed.

I think it takes 850s of about -6 for you and -7 or -8 here.  It's very easy to get a small low embedded in the flow which can deaden the SW winds if it tracks south of us.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it takes 850s of about -6 for you and -7 or -8 here.  It's very easy to get a small low embedded in the flow which can deaden the SW winds if it tracks south of us.

Not sure lowland snow without arctic air is "very easy".    Except maybe up around Randy's house which is the likely spot for c-zones with strong SW wind.

[Dave]

I just hope the mountains get what they (and myself) need. The peak of the snowpack at around pass level in Oregon is usually about the end of March. Snowmobile season usually doesn't ramp up here until about late January or early February, but the only weekend it was good to go this year was when we had that devastating ice storm so it wasn't realistic to even go up there. Most sledders like to go off trail and much of the area has huge lava flow rocks that need deep snow to be safe. Need more snow! The next week doesn't look helpful for the Oregon snow pack, but it looks like there is some optimism after that.

[BLI snowman]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This one always unsettled me.

https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2005/07/oakridge_mystified_by_campsite.html

Yeah, also makes me think of this one that happened the following year. Sadly both cases are very unlikely to be solved at this point.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/unsolved/one-mans-relentless-search-for-killer-in-its-18th-year/281-5d26dcb4-a3e5-4bcf-b8e4-dba203f30a2e

 

Edited February 19 by BLI snowman

[BLI snowman]

7 hours ago, MV_snow said:

I definitely agree when it comes to Tim’s posts these days. He also posts plenty of cold maps that his detractors seem to just ignore. That said, I’ve been lurking here off and on since 2015 and the 2015-19 version of Tim was much worse with the blatant trolling. I think a lot of old timers here have just had a hard time moving past the old days and accepting the new and better version of him. He’s honestly one of my favorite posters now.

2015-19 Tim was an absolute saint next to 2006-12 Tim.

The combination of much warmer spring/summer weather and him no longer being such a recent SoCal transplant boob really allowed him to morph into the beautiful soul he is today. 

Edited February 19 by BLI snowman

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, also makes me think of this one that happened the following year. Sadly both cases are very unlikely to be solved at this point.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/unsolved/one-mans-relentless-search-for-killer-in-its-18th-year/281-5d26dcb4-a3e5-4bcf-b8e4-dba203f30a2e

 

Much more recent, of course, but reminds me of this one too.

 

https://www.clackamas.us/sheriff/2019-08-12-CCSOPR-SuspiciousDeathInvestigation.html

 

Lots of unsolved cases in our region, unfortunately. Not to mention that possible serial killer in the metro this past year as well.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cougars!

7 straight wins. Although my parents' neighbor is from Tacoma and a proud UW Seattle alum and told me that he can't support seven year old's Cougar fandom lol. I should have asked him if he misses the snow, having been in CA the last twenty years.

We'll see if there's any convection here in CA tomorrow then back to KGEG on Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

Those outlying GEFS members on the 0z might have been onto something.  This is getting good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is still an absolute lost cause in the long range. It's interesting how much better the EURO and the EPS is right now.

Edited February 19 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

We will have been back from our trip a week by tomorrow and there has been a total of 0.00 in North Bend in that time span.    Guessing that debt is about to be paid back starting Sunday.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will have been back from our trip a week by tomorrow and there has been a total of 0.00 in North Bend in that time span.    Guessing that debt is about to be paid back starting Sunday.

The SW flow is going to make me the dry spot this time around. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a very dry month here in terms of total precip. Only 3.23”. However it has rained on most days… drizzle and 43 right now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I know it won’t snow IMBY in March, but maybe something in late Feb like last year?

[MossMan]

1.41” for the month, 6.85” for the year. 

[Slushy Inch]

Pscz showing up again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s interesting the GFS is way better than the GEM with the first trough, but then does the ridge pump thing. GEM has a 2nd very potent trough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty wet morning underway here in the Salem area.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

1.41” for the month, 6.85” for the year. 

Drought 

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs and 6z eps have both moved first trough a litter east and have moved more ridging into Alaska. Hopefully results in a colder outcome.

[Slushy Inch]

Got to like it.

[Slushy Inch]

Trend. More it tilts clockwise the colder it will get.

[Slushy Inch]