February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

That second punch is too far West

At least early on.

[snow_wizard]

EPS still pushes the second trough over us pretty quickly.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Not excited about the next snow potential with that NW flow, it can really kill my area of precipitation.

Yeah.  That is your Achilles heel over there.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Not excited about the next snow potential with that NW flow, it can really kill my area of precipitation.

NW flow usually looks like this here

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

NW flow usually looks like this here

 

Yeah, I'm also not thrilled about it. I need NE flow. 

[Timmy]

Wise words on a common issue here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

20 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Not excited about the next snow potential with that NW flow, it can really kill my area of precipitation.

There will be a bunch of other chances besides that 24hr period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah.  That is your Achilles heel over there.

Not worried, plenty of chances. We will do good with any frontal action once the cold air gets here. Looks like several overrunning events are possible.

Edited February 21 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[SnarkyGoblin]

Can't get over how bare Snoqualmie looked driving over the pass.  Drought seems like a certainty at this point given we're going into an El Nino summer.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Yeah, I'm also not thrilled about it. I need NE flow. 

Therein lies the problem around here.  We all need something different to score.  It makes for a lot of angst on here.  The really cold months where we get numerous snow chances from different scenarios are the really awesome and special ones.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

wow summit west only has a 50 inch base. Terrible. I'd bet this time next week the base is around 80.

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Can't get over how bare Snoqualmie looked driving over the pass.  Drought seems like a certainty at this point given we're going into an El Nino summer.

In the next 7 days the Euro gives Snoqualmie 26" and the GFS gives them 42". Thank goodness.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Can't get over how bare Snoqualmie looked driving over the pass.  Drought seems like a certainty at this point given we're going into an El Nino summer.

The Nino is about to crash so that might save us.  2010 is a great example.  Big Nino to Nina transition that year and the summer was cool by recent standards.  Trust me....the Nino will be gone by summer.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

wow summit west only has a 50 inch base. Terrible. I'd bet this time next week the base is around 80.

That is terrible.  One concern is that possible warm /wet window showing up on the models.

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

wow summit west only has a 50 inch base. Terrible. I'd bet this time next week the base is around 80.

Stevens has 50" and West at Snoqualmie 1,000 feet lower reports 52". I have serious doubts Snoqualmie actually has that much considering how many times the snow level has been between 3,000-4,000 feet and how often it's been in the low 30's at Stevens and mid 30's at Snoqualmie the last month.

[TT-SEA]

Full 12Z EPS run...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Stevens has 50" and West at Snoqualmie 1,000 feet lower reports 52". I have serious doubts Snoqualmie actually has that much considering how many times the snow level has been between 3,000-4,000 feet and how often it's been in the low 30's at Stevens and mid 30's at Snoqualmie the last month.

Alental reporting 58 at base.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

alpental top is 108 inch, thats impressive but this time of year they should be close to 200

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not worried, plenty of chances. We will do good with any frontal action once the cold air gets here. Looks like several overrunning events are possible.

You have been very optimistic about snow chances with every cool shot of air this season.  Next Wednesday looks like a decent shot at some over running snow in select areas. Probably not a regional event again though. 

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Can't get over how bare Snoqualmie looked driving over the pass.  Drought seems like a certainty at this point given we're going into an El Nino summer.

 

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Nino is about to crash so that might save us.  2010 is a great example.  Big Nino to Nina transition that year and the summer was cool by recent standards.  Trust me....the Nino will be gone by summer.

The best ENSO analogs for this spring/summer are looking like: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1995, 1983, 1973, and 1964. Most of those years were not very hot or dry.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Where is Phil?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Therein lies the problem around here.  We all need something different to score.  It makes for a lot of angst on here.  The really cold months where we get numerous snow chances from different scenarios are the really awesome and special ones.

I've done okay this season, so im cool with missing out. I'm kinda ready for spring anyway.

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

alpental top is 108 inch, thats impressive but this time of year they should be close to 200

The SNOTEL obs are the most reliable records.

Stampede Pass is 5th lowest in 42 years of observations. I would imagine Snoqualmie is similar. 

Olallie Meadows (near top of Summit Central) is 7th lowest in 42 years. 

Stevens Pass is 8th lowest in 44 years. 

The Olympics, North Cascades and most of British Columbia are generally 2nd or 3rd lowest in the past several decades. 

Adding 6-10 inches of SWE over the next two weeks would result in massive improvement. It would get many of those spots out of the top-10. Some places like Stampede could get close to normal. Or, that AR will come and we'll wash out most of the improvements almost immediately. But the passes tend to hang on longer as snow in ARs so I expect they will come out of this looking ok. 

 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Full 12Z EPS run...

Lots of red for Phil! 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Where is Phil?

In a dark room scouring the dark web for that one rouge model that still might show an El Niño for next winter.

[Gummy]

787 days now since Seattle had a decent event with greater than 3" of snowfall. Late time was that amazing storm that hit the day after Christmas in 2021.  Hopefully the winter of 24-25 can end the streak.  I would hate to reach 1000 days, that would be very depressing. 

[SnowWillarrive]

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I’m going with 1-3” of slop here next week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

Washington s turn. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

I think it has a chance to be the opposite and be a low fire year... with a Nino to Nina transition and more frequent rain this summer.   

[the_convergence_zone]

16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

Wildfire predictions are one where we have essentially zero skill at this lead time. It only takes 2 weeks of warm/dry weather to create hazardous fire conditions. The majority of large wildfires are human caused and no model can predict if an idiot will be at the wrong place at the wrong time. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Washington s turn. 

Yeah, we already had 2020. They can enjoy a record fire year of 2024!

[Omegaraptor]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

In a dark room scouring the dark web for that one rouge model that still might show an El Niño for next winter.

I regret to inform you that the Zimbabwe model shows a strong Nino next winter. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

37 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Wildfire predictions are one where we have essentially zero skill at this lead time. It only takes 2 weeks of warm/dry weather to create hazardous fire conditions. The majority of large wildfires are human caused and no model can predict if an idiot will be at the wrong place at the wrong time. 

A low snowpack and the chance of yet another early starting, long, and hot summer this year (at least no transplants will be packing their bags!) stacks the deck in favor of a bad fire season. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A low snowpack and the chance of yet another early starting, long, and hot summer this year (at least no transplants will be packing their bags!) stacks the deck in favor of a bad fire season. 

That's a bold claim to say there will be a low snowpack. Nothing is set in stone yet. Also doesn't below average precip in winter and spring mean there will be less shrubs?, those things are the big fire starters. What's most important is if you have a moist summer or a dry summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Wildfire predictions are one where we have essentially zero skill at this lead time. It only takes 2 weeks of warm/dry weather to create hazardous fire conditions. The majority of large wildfires are human caused and no model can predict if an idiot will be at the wrong place at the wrong time. 

Also, with our normally cool and wet antecedent background conditions coming out of spring, it takes way more than just a few dry weeks to put us in a bad spot for fire. There’s a lot wrong with this post, and it very predictably shifts the blame away from the nice elephant in the room, which are the scorching hot, early starting summers that quickly zap whatever snowpack we do have then drag on forever. That has been the single biggest culprit in the bad fire seasons this past decade.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Gummy said:

787 days now since Seattle had a decent event with greater than 3" of snowfall. Late time was that amazing storm that hit the day after Christmas in 2021.  Hopefully the winter of 24-25 can end the streak.  I would hate to reach 1000 days, that would be very depressing. 

Been three of them here since then. 4/11/2022, 2/22/2023 , and 1/13/2024. 

Snowfall wise, Seattle is probably the worst inland place in Western WA. 

Edited February 21 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been three of them here since then. 4/11/2022, 2/22/2023 , and 1/13/2024. 

Snowfall wise, Seattle is probably the worst inland place in Western WA. 

The Roseburg of western Washington.

[SnarkyGoblin]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think it has a chance to be the opposite and be a low fire year... with a Nino to Nina transition and more frequent rain this summer.   

I'll believe it when I see it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

And destroy portions or entirities of cities. If we have a shit March-May then we are so fucked with all this underbrush and broken branches dead all over the place thanks to the worst ice storm here that many have ever seen. By the end of August, if an east wind event presents itself, then it would be a good idea to pack a fire bag.