February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

On 1/30/2024 at 10:21 PM, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

On February 23rd-24th there will be a widespread snowstorm from Everett to Medford. Mid to south Willamette Valley and South Puget Sound will get the most snow, both ending up with a minimum of 11 inches, the region will have 4 subfreezing highs from the 24th-27th,  and the night of the 26th-27th afternoon will drop a widespread few inches, then we will slowly warm up as the cold air filters out, no overrunning event. Then from March 4th-29th there will be a long stretch of mountain snow, and cold rain in the lowlands, bringing the snowpack up to 150%.

 

Edit: and in April there will be some type of poison from bugs that will wipe out all palm trees in the pnw, they will be all gone by spring 2025.

Forget the first part of that comment, I CALLED A Feb 26th-27th SNOW EVENT! 27 DAYS BEFORE! If it ends up happening, it will not play out how I said it will, but still REALLY a good guess! Mt bachelor better consider hiring me as their long range forecaster!

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Gummy said:

787 days now since Seattle had a decent event with greater than 3" of snowfall. Late time was that amazing storm that hit the day after Christmas in 2021.  Hopefully the winter of 24-25 can end the streak.  I would hate to reach 1000 days, that would be very depressing. 

3" is actually a fairly high bar for a number of days since count.  Many times that PDX and SEA have gone way longer than that.

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The interplay between snowpack and wildfire was my main area of study at your rival state university, so it’s not like I’m making this stuff up. It all goes together. A large snowpack that peaks at a normal time and melts at a normal rate would suggest at least average temps in the spring, as opposed to the latter half of April kickoff to summer we’ve all gotten used to more often than not in recent years. Obviously weather conditions during the summer play a role too, but even with our typically mostly dry 2-3 months a year, high soil moisture content and healthier, less stressed vegetation brought about by a robust peak snowpack can play a role in mitigating fire conditions.

And I don’t want to seem cynical, but your “concern” over our warming summers seems a little empty when just yesterday it sounded like you wouldn’t even be living in the region anymore if we backslid toward more average warm seasons at any point.

I'm pretty sure most of our disagreements are based on misunderstandings...

I never said anything yesterday about my personal opinion on warm summers. I was describing the general consensus of people I was associated with at the time. Most people don't like cold and cloudy summers, that is obvious by the memes about Seattle's weather that are all over the Internet. 

I like temperate weather. I don't like any weather that I can't go running in, which includes both extreme cold and heat, but cold is kind of fun for the novelty factor. I like the wet/dry season mediterranean climate that this region offers. I prefer it to the humid continental climate that I grew up. The weather in this region suits my expertise in mountain and mesoscale meteorology. 

If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. If climate change gives you a warmer climate, grow lemon trees. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Seattle is easily better than Fife or Puyallup. Especially north Seattle, which at least can get in on CZ action sometimes.

Downtown Seattle is probably about equal to Fife, being that they are both on the water. Puyallup seems like they get a little less shadowing at least? 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Downtown Seattle is probably about equal to Fife, being that they are both on the water. Puyallup seems like they get a little less shadowing at least? 

Seattle does get the occasional C-Zone though.  Also downtown had a big snow in Dec 1996 when it was only ZR south of there.  Probably also way outdid Fife in Jan 2012.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any ensemble improvements on the second trough?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any ensemble improvements on the second trough?

Yes....more cold members and a colder mean.

Sorry about last night BTW.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Nobody ever posted the 12 eps snow map....

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Nobody ever posted the 12 eps snow map....

How did it look?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yes....more cold members and a colder mean.

Sorry about last night BTW.

No worries I can be abrasive at times. 

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle does get the occasional C-Zone though.  Also downtown had a big snow in Dec 1996 when it was only ZR south of there.  Probably also way outdid Fife in Jan 2012.

That storm was actually deeper the further south you went. Amounts peaked around Lewis County where they had 17-18" in Centralia. But the South Sound did quite well up through Tacoma, while I think Downtown Seattle had about 4" with the main event and then a couple inches with the initial c-zone. 

It's rare for Seattle to be at the epicenter of any event, outside of the odd c-zone. Geography pretty well sees to it with the shadowing and quick moderating power of the Sound. That's what made December 1990 so special, because they got clobbered in downtown while ironically SEA only got a fraction. March 2002 was another one. 

Edited February 21 by BLI snowman

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How did it look?

That's exactly what I wanna know, how snowy was it? There should be a "@WeatherbellSubscribers" feature for when you want someone with a weatherbell subscription to post a EPS/GEFS map or a ECMWF kuchera map.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That storm was actually deeper the further south you went. Amounts peaked around Lewis County where they had 17-18" in Centralia. But the South Sound did quite well up through Tacoma, while I think Downtown Seattle had about 4" with the main event and then a couple inches with the initial c-zone. 

It's rare for Seattle to be at the epicenter of any event, outside of the rare c-zone. Geography pretty well sees to it with the shadowing and quick moderating power of the Sound. That's what made December 1990 so special, because they got clobbered in downtown while ironically SEA only got a fraction. March 2002 was another one. 

I had 14 inches. This shows the Seattle heat island effect well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How did it look?

Sorry I turned my WB subscription off for the season. I didn't think I would need it this time...

[Hawksfan2008]

[Meatyorologist]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had 14 inches. This shows the Seattle heat island effect well.

It also shows that random CZ from mid January over north Seattle!

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That storm was actually deeper the further south you went. Amounts peaked around Lewis County where they had 17-18" in Centralia. But the South Sound did quite well up through Tacoma, while I think Downtown Seattle had about 4" with the main event and then a couple inches with the initial c-zone. 

It's rare for Seattle to be at the epicenter of any event, outside of the odd c-zone. Geography pretty well sees to it with the shadowing and quick moderating power of the Sound. That's what made December 1990 so special, because they got clobbered in downtown while ironically SEA only got a fraction. March 2002 was another one. 

I thought about that after I posted it.  I was thinking about part 2 where there was a lot of snow north of where I live, but I think that was north of Seattle too.

1996 was another one where downtown got clobbered and SEA didn't have much due to ZR. 1990 was simply a case of not much moisture making it south of Seattle.  I was sure living in a good place on that one!

SEA can do well in Fraser outflow events if the north winds associated with the Arctic front get hung up for a while.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

19 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

WOW! There are quite a few AMAZING members! This has got some GREAT potential!

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had 14 inches. This shows the Seattle heat island effect well.

I think that might have been a case of too far north for the main round of snow and too south for snow with the big ZR / snow event after that.  I ended up with 10.2" that month which fell on 4 consecutive days.  Big ice storm in there too.  What are the depths for the various colors?

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

WOW! There are quite a few AMAZING members! This has got some GREAT potential!

These daffodils are going to be buried next week  

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

These daffodils are going to be buried next week  

 

 

 

Way too early for those.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way too early for those.

Not anymore   

[Cold Snap]

Quite the spread where I am in Alabama today with a 70/27 spread. 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Quite the spread where I am in Alabama today with a 70/27 spread. 

Where the skies are so blue…

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see the 0z run tonight.  The 18z ECMWF had even more back digging than the 12z at hour 90.

[T-Town]

 NWS actually mentions the S word in the zone forecast for snow starved Tacoma. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That little high latitude piece the models have been showing at the top of the offshore ridge is getting stronger in the home stretch.  It causes the trough to dig more sharply.

 

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

18z tries to develop a low off our coast monday and spreads snow into parts of western washington

The 18z GFS trended colder for next week. Yeah it develops a surface low as the trough digs deeper allowing for more moisture. Most of us should see snow down to sea level by Monday evening.  522 thickness already down to Northern California also by Monday evening. Great run!

[Slushy Inch]

Really looking better and better as we get closer

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Really looking better and better as we get closer

Snow map?

[Cold Snap]

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Where the skies are so blue…

It was actually kind of smoky today believe it or not. It’s been dry here recently.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Snow map?

There will be surprises.

[snow_wizard]

18Z EPS control is snowier than the 12z for Monday night.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Really looking better and better as we get closer

No doubt.  Every run digs the trough just a tad sharper than the run before.

[snow_wizard]

Believe it or not the airmass gets cold enough Monday night that we could be looking at higher than 10:1 ratios.  850s drop to -9 and surface temps in the upper 20s.  Areas north of Seattle could see snow during the day on Monday as well.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18Z EPS control is snowier than the 12z for Monday night.

If trend continues. Next run will be probably be a little more southwest with trough so it spins up a low like gfs shows.

[Timmy]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18Z EPS out-of-control is snowier than the 12z for Monday night.

Fixed it for you

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Way too early for those.

Apparently not. I took that picture today.  But they probably will have snow on them next week. 

[TT-SEA]

The fact that the 18Z control run shows snow in the same general area at the same time as the GFS is definitely compelling evidence that there will be some lowland snow on Monday.

[umadbro]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18Z EPS control is snowier than the 12z for Monday night.

Good thing I gave 4 wheel drive. Getting to work looks like a legit issue.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think that might have been a case of too far north for the main round of snow and too south for snow with the big ZR / snow event after that.  I ended up with 10.2" that month which fell on 4 consecutive days.  Big ice storm in there too.  What are the depths for the various colors?

Have you not played around with that site? I spend hrs on it looking up past storms an d depths. Goes back to 2002. It's very accurate.