March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

39/32 today with light flurries and graupel showers through mid afternoon.  

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Went through our records, we had 94/25 day in Sept 2018!

I remember when I lived in the Santa Cruz mtns in CA we had a 106/41 I think it was in August of 2013

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

Looks like operational run is quite an outlier.   00Z GEFS looks much more solid with the ridge.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I remember when I lived in the Santa Cruz mtns in CA we had a 106/41 I think it was in August of 2013

Wow! I did not know that area could pull off such impressive temp swings! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like operational run is quite an outlier.   00Z GEFS looks much more solid with the ridge.

I can put up with (and enjoy) 5-7 days of that, after that we're going to need some more mountains snow. Hopefully that ridge doesn't continue for a long time.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wow! I did not know that area could pull off such impressive temp swings! 

in the dry summer above the fog belt it can.  we sat in a valley at about 1000' above sea level near Felton CA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I can put up with (and enjoy) 5-7 days of that, after that we're going to need some more mountains snow. Hopefully that ridge doesn't continue for a long time.

At least on the 18z ensemble it retrograded fairly quickly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These patterns seem to have a habit of producing inexplicably warm temps, but at face value the ridge is only over top of us for a couple days and then the strongest anomalies drift off to the north and west. A warm dry stretch for sure, but at this point I’m not super worried about it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

in the dry summer above the fog belt it can.  we sat in a valley at about 1000' above sea level near Felton CA

Did you ever get snow? 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

For once I agree with you. We need to have official weather stations in fields/forests not surrounded by asphalt, to better represent how our climate actually is. An airport station might represent the climate people experience if they live downtown in a city, but that's about all it's good for. We need airport stations AND stations in more remote locations.

 

There are a lot of home weather stations people have out in places like that, but obviously those are not accurate enough.

 

That’s why they invested so much money in the USCRN! 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/

Ive been to the Lake Quinault one, it’s a pretty neat setup. 

The most exciting thing in Washington State is the massive investment that WSU AgWeatherNet is putting into building out a decent Mesonet. I believe they have almost 50 upgraded stations now and they are high quality instruments on par with ASOS stations. 

[lowlandsnow]

Why is the 00z Euro done running at 10:07?

[Phishy Wx]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you ever get snow? 

we had a dusting in dec 2013 I believe it was.  the mtn tops ~3500' ish would get measurable snow about every other winter

[Phishy Wx]

its snowed down to sea level in Santa Cruz a couple times in history, just not when we lived in the vicinity (2012-2016)

[Slushy Inch]

Why is euro coming out so fast now?

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Why is euro coming out so fast now?

time sped up, an hour is now only 51 min

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why is euro coming out so fast now?

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

11 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Why is the 00z Euro done running at 10:07?

In a few days 10:07 will be 11:07. Thank God it started running early, just in time for DST.

 

We need to make standard time permanent, DST is not good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

That’s awful, the good news is most models have that time being essentially the peak before things start improving dramatically. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I find it humorous our idiotic legislature approved permanent daylight savings a few years ago and now has approved permanent standard time…

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

OUCH!

[snow_wizard]

This is almost looking like a 1998 type crash in the ENSO regions.  This cold spot has only been there three days and it is growing very fast.

[Deweydog]

Could be nice relocating weather for those fleeing the region?

[snow_wizard]

Another cold one tonight.  I had my doubts with all the clouds earlier.  Already down to 33 here.

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

I could get used to a fast euro! Next winter is going to be fun, less of that annoying wait between the gfs and euro when model riding.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gotta love those rising GOA heights later on showing up in the ensembles. Could be heading towards some late month FROST!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is almost looking like a 1998 type crash in the ENSO regions.  This cold spot has only been there three days and it is growing very fast.

What are you rooting for? Super Nina or a weak to low end moderate like the EURO shows?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are you rooting for? Super Nina or a weak to low end moderate like the EURO shows?

I think moderate would work very well for us.  Strong Ninas have a mixed history.  Some strong ones have been epic though.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I find it humorous our idiotic legislature approved permanent daylight savings a few years ago and now has approved permanent standard time…

I was pretty worried when they were trying to make DST permanent. It used to save electricity, but now with AC being so widely used, standard time saves a LOT of electricity. If you get home 1 hour later relative to sunset, you won't need to leave your AC on as long, and will be able to open your windows 1 hour earlier relative to when you get back home. That will REALLY add up after a couple months, and will save a ton of electricity.

 

Sorry for getting a little political, I try to avoid doing that, but I really think DST is just terrible.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is almost looking like a 1998 type crash in the ENSO regions.  This cold spot has only been there three days and it is growing very fast.

Wow! Part of it is already -2C! SUPER NINA IS COMING!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think moderate would work very well for us.  Strong Ninas have a mixed history.  Some strong ones have been epic though.

I agree. Though 2020-21 failed pretty hard regionally and that was a moderate Nina. I get there was a nice 3-4 day stretch in February 2021, but aside from that it was a complete turd. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. Though 2020-21 failed pretty hard regionally and that was a moderate Nina. I get there was a nice 3-4 day stretch in February 2021, but aside from that it was a complete turd. 

I think we should all root on the record super nina. We don't know what it'll be like if it's a record nina, so I root for it! Will be a fun year of model riding, and it'll be a HISTORIC COLD AND SNOWY WINTER, A -2.6C LA NINA, ITS COMING!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Clearing out nicely this evening. Those mid level clouds were pretty thicc earlier, so good to see. Already down to 35.

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Clearing out nicely this evening. Those mid level clouds were pretty thicc earlier, so good to see. Already down to 35.

+6F from yesterday here

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

+6F from yesterday here

Never said it was colder than last night, but it’s on track to get a lot colder than it would have if the clouds had stuck around.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

13.7 currently, 4 degrees colder than it was at this time last night. Got down to 5 last night, so at this point I'd say 0 degrees or maybe even sub 0 is still possible.

 

It would be pretty crazy if we pulled off a sub 0 low with this airmass.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

13.7 currently, 4 degrees colder than it was at this time last night. Got down to 5 last night, so at this point I'd say 0 degrees or maybe even sub 0 is still possible.

 

It would be pretty crazy if we pulled off a sub 0 low with this airmass.

Last time we got below 0 in March was 2022 when we got to -3.4, and before that was 2015 when we got to -.2

 

Good night! 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

Looks like I’ll get that early season melt off after all. I figure once all the forests burn down; then we won’t have to contend with a smoke season anymore.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Upgrades.

00Z ECMWF is solid.

Fully prepared for this to be a predominant pattern until May when this will become the 4CH and put us in the blast furnace.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we're down to 28F out there.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Looks like I’ll get that early season melt off after all. I figure once all the forests burn down; then we won’t have to contend with a smoke season anymore.

Fun fact... 500mb heights used to be well below normal perpetually.   Ridges didn't exist.