March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's completely inexcusable how bad they are. Zero reason for a weather model in 2024 to predict sticking snow while the temperature is in the upper 30's and they do it all the time.

Models are never going to be perfect. Sometimes they are going to predict 32 degree snow and a low goes North or South or downslope winds end up stronger than predicted and it turns to 35 degree rain. We can live with that kind of error.

But they need to at least be internally consistent and predict things that are physically possible given the other parameters the model is predicting. I just don't understand how they've gotten so much worse at that. 

There's something unique about this event that is causing the errors. My suspicion is that it has to do with the ocean-atmosphere coupling. There's almost no in situ sampling of the Pacific Ocean upstream of us other than a couple of buoys. From satellites we know the SST well and we know the middle and upper atmosphere temps well. But the boundary layer, which is what this event is most sensitive to, is not well sampled out there. So you are dependent on the model to correctly transfer heat between the relatively warm ocean and this frigid arctic air mass. 

It seems to me like some of the models are under-doing this heat transfer (GFS, Euro) and others like the ICON are closer but possibly over-doing it. 

Just my hunch...

[Timmy]

52 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Radar is pretty good but it seems just a bit too warm. The west hills had some snow

Sticking snow at about 500’ here.  Seems like most every model had accumulation here this morning at the lowest elevations. Just a little too warm through

[Doinko]

Rain/snowing right now, mostly snow now with some heavier precip.

Ended the winter with 24.59" of precip! Last year we had 15" of rain for Dec-Feb, and 14.79" in 2021-22

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Sticking snow at about 500’ here.  Seems like most every model had accumulation here this morning at the lowest elevations. Just a little too warm through

Starting to switch mostly to snow. Not sticking but nice to see!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Every model has been treating this like December and not March. Why do we keep getting fooled every year?

Most of us close to sea level need a Columbia Basin Cold Pool and offshore flow to get sticking snow. The Cold Pool is just not there and it gets tough to get one in March.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is send our potential big snow event early next week way south.

[OysterPrintout]

Mostly snow in Hillsboro. Nice to see at 10 am! Temp 36 at KHIO

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing at matlock again and tahola Right on the coast.

[snow_wizard]

I want to believe.  For some reason the ECMWF gives us nighttime precip while the other models don't.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Snowing at matlock again and tahola Right on the coast.

The snow on the coast is a pretty big deal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is they have to fix the model snow maps.  It should be easy to ax the 36 to 40 degree snow they show right off the bat.

If the models show snow down to the surface it seems to be too generous in adding accumulations. It will not stick if the ground is too warm.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I want to believe.  For some reason the ECMWF gives us nighttime precip while the other models don't.

ECMWF is bad enough... but using 10:1 map is even worse.   

[Tanis Leach]

Fully snowing in Sherwood, but not sticking. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is bad enough... but using 10:1 map is even worse.   

 

Kuchera is actually higher here somehow!

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, icyasf said:

1.5” at my parents house west of of campus!! 

Looks Icy As Fu**. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Most of us close to sea level need a Columbia Basin Cold Pool and offshore flow to get sticking snow. The Cold Pool is just not there and it gets tough to get one in March.

This is…..not meteorology.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Doinko said:

Kuchera is actually higher here somehow!

Total vs 48 hr

[snow_wizard]

Now this is a situation where King County often scores.  Backwash behind a departing surface low over south central / SE WA.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is bad enough... but using 10:1 map is even worse.   

I’m touching the blue! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Snownerd3000]

Meanwhile in Cali 

 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

If the models show snow down to the surface it seems to be too generous in adding accumulations. It will not stick if the ground is too warm.

The snow maps do not accumulate snow. They take the frozen component of the QPF and multiply it by either 10 or the Kuchera factor. It is equivalent to the snow in the air near the ground. Ground temperature, surface temperature, sunshine, etc. are not factored in. 

You need to look at the "snow depth" product to see the actual predicted accumulation, which actually considers other variables besides QPF and precip type. That's the product that is actually output by the modeling centers. The "snow maps" we see on here are post-processed by the model map websites. 

[Doinko]

Really dumping snow now

[OysterPrintout]

Really coming down now snowing way harder than it ever did during the January storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow 

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I want to believe.  For some reason the ECMWF gives us nighttime precip while the other models don't.

That’s like 15” here…

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is bad enough... but using 10:1 map is even worse.   

Even it gets good after the backwash situation I showed.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Meanwhile in Cali 

 

 

That's like 12,000 feet.  Not impressed.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Radar is pretty good but it seems just a bit too warm. The west hills had some snow

Snowing pretty hard on top of Sylvan hill exit just up the hill, but that’s 800ft and still not sticking - 37 mixed showers here now  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Really coming down now snowing way harder than it ever did during the January storm.

Pretty impressive when you consider the meh 850s today.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Really dumping snow now

Been trying to switch here but it seems to mostly be a westside thing for now. South wind has been keeping us at 36 here even with decent precip rates.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Been trying to switch here but it seems to mostly be a westside thing for now. South wind has been keeping us at 36 here even with decent precip rates.

It's actually starting to stick in places now. The field nearby is completely white and it looks like a snow globe.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just dumping again in matlock. Trees and ground covered.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Dumping snow here. 34F. Not close to sticking. Looks like it is sticking somewhat on the west hills at 800ft.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is bad enough... but using 10:1 map is even worse.   

At least down here the totals aren't much different, you split it into 24 hour periods to make it look less impressive. lol

Edited March 1 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That last band brought about 2", pretty impressive considering we are moving towards mid-day. 5.5" on the day, two day total of 13.2" now. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That last band brought about 2", pretty impressive considering we are moving towards mid-day. 5.5" on the day, two day total of 13.2" now. 

Could get a slushy inch or 13 if this pattern works out for you.

[Snowdome]

Snowing in Oregon City, definitely won’t be sticking but it’s finally in the air! 
 

First non-sleet snow of the year here, I’ll take what I can get. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Aberdeen 34 and snowing, this batch of showers and air is colder than last night it would appear.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That last band brought about 2", pretty impressive considering we are moving towards mid-day. 5.5" on the day, two day total of 13.2" now. 

What is depth? 8? probably getting a ton of compaction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Even it gets good after the backwash situation I showed.

The amount of snow from Mt. Jefferson south is just bonkers.