March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol yeah some people keep saying the lowlands in Oregon are having all the fun this winter. The January event was pretty decent for you guys but it’s not like you guys have had multiple big snow events and we’ve had nothing up this way. 

I was just razzing them. Mostly Andrew. It’s been a pretty crappy winter most places.  Kind of a Miracle that the Oregon snow pack is doing so well

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I was just razzing them. Mostly Andrew. It’s been a pretty crappy winter most places.  Kind of a Miracle that the Oregon snow pack is doing so well

Good. They have had the most brutal summers so they probably need it most.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Every model has been treating this like December and not March. Why do we keep getting fooled every year?

It's not a cold problem.  It's a precip problem in this case.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Shockingly (not), Forks had no accumulating snow. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS decided to stop being silly with lowland pepto this morning... pretty light for the Seattle area for a 15-day total map.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not a cold problem.  It's a precip problem in this case.

It is definitely a cold problem. Daytime highs in the mid 40s does not equal accumulating snow. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So far the icon has done the best here.

People hate seeing the stingy icon snow maps but it has performed very well up here on many occasions the past few winters.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not a cold problem.  It's a precip problem in this case.

You would of had rain last night. I had non sticking snow all night and i am almost 700ft.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not a cold problem.  It's a precip problem in this case.

It’s been a cold problem down this way. Plenty of precip but also plenty of south wind.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

GFS decided to stop being silly with lowland pepto this morning... pretty light for the Seattle area for a 15-day total map.  

Still dumb out here at over 1 foot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like snow is sticking down the valley floor in parts of Polk County. 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

20 inches at KSEA next year. Book it. 

The Puget Sound usually does better in La Nina cold waves.  Portland often outperforms Seattle in El Nino winters.

We have about as many aces in the deck as you can get for next winter.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

People hate seeing the stingy icon snow maps but it has performed very well up here on many occasions the past few winters.  

Speaking of the ICON... the 12Z run took away the big snowstorm for the Seattle area shown on the 00Z run. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You would of had rain last night. I had non sticking snow all night and i am almost 700ft.

I was talking more about what's coming.  Decent precip rates would have at least got actual snow falling here last night.

[Doinko]

Radar is pretty good but it seems just a bit too warm. The west hills had some snow

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I was just razzing them. Mostly Andrew. It’s been a pretty crappy winter most places.  Kind of a Miracle that the Oregon snow pack is doing so well

Oh yea I know, I wasn’t really talking about you and Andrew. I just see so many posts of people saying “Oregon is getting all the fun this winter” when it really hasn’t been that much better there this winter outside of one event. Putting the last 7 years into perspective as well it’s been much much better here too. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of the ICON... the 12Z run took away the big snowstorm for the Seattle area shown on the 00Z run. 

The 6z had some backwash snow for this area as well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Radar is pretty good but it seems just a bit too warm. The west hills had some snow

We have that spike coming in the mid levels today so it's going to be hard to get snow for most of us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Normally i would be excited for 16 inches of anow shown for the next 72hrs. zi have no idea what to think after lastnight. I will go for maybe 3-4 over the next 72hrs at most. Just to warm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was talking more about what's coming.  Decent precip rates would have at least got actual snow falling here last night.

Thats what blew my mind, it was 32 and snowing under a decent shower and when the heavy stuff came the temp jumped up to 34 and it was a mix most of the night. That normlly dont happen out here like that

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is definitely a cold problem. Daytime highs in the mid 40s does not equal accumulating snow. 

I've always seen this as being a snow at night situation.  I'm talking more about the air mass that is coming anyway.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like snow is sticking down the valley floor in parts of Polk County. 

I first read that as Poop County, Andrew. LOL.

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thats what blew my mind, it was 32 and snowing under a decent shower and when the heavy stuff came the temp jumped up to 34 and it was a mix most of the night. That normlly dont happen out here like that

Southwesterly flow is such a snow killer for the lowlands. I had the same thing happen here -- jumped from 35 up to 37 and then stayed there. Presumably some warmer air came in with one of the showers, which makes sense because they are coming straight off of the ocean. 

[umadbro]

Tonight’s meso low starting to take shape

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Southwesterly flow is such a snow killer for the lowlands. I had the same thing happen here -- jumped from 35 up to 37 and then stayed there. Presumably some warmer air came in with one of the showers, which makes sense because they are coming straight off of the ocean. 

The showers with a longer over land trip are producing snow here and the ones right off the ocean are a tad warmer. There must of been a meso low hidden that created the strong winds. Normally i dont get strong south winds like lastnight. When the wind calmed it went right back to 32 and snow.

[Eugene-5SW]

33º with some sticking snow here

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of performance... the ECMWF yesterday showed 1-2 inches across all of King County by this morning.     Its been way too aggressive with snow for my area.

I’ve lost faith in the Euro. A few years ago you could trust the snow maps even. Now it’s worse than the GFS. 

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure is they have to fix the model snow maps.  It should be easy to ax the 36 to 40 degree snow they show right off the bat.

[Eugene-5SW]

I was pretty happy about it, actually.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I remember if Tim posted a euro map that had snow within 48hrs he would say Its coming!  We are smart enough to look at the raw data and know it is bs though. This pattern we are in now is the hardest to predict out here for snow. I could get between 1 and 12 inches depending on very fine details. Crazy stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dallas, OR 

[SnarkyGoblin]

What is particularly frustrating is that phantom snow maps have been an issue for a relatively long time. You read stories about GFS upgrades but they don't seem to help, at least for our area.

Story 5 years ago, with Judah being quoted.

https://wapo.st/49ybKBz

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Every model has been treating this like December and not March. Why do we keep getting fooled every year?

36F  mixed precip doesn’t accumulate much better in December than it does in March. 

[bainbridgekid]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is they have to fix the model snow maps.  It should be easy to ax the 36 to 40 degree snow they show right off the bat.

It's completely inexcusable how bad they are. Zero reason for a weather model in 2024 to predict sticking snow while the temperature is in the upper 30's and they do it all the time.

Models are never going to be perfect. Sometimes they are going to predict 32 degree snow and a low goes North or South or downslope winds end up stronger than predicted and it turns to 35 degree rain. We can live with that kind of error.

But they need to at least be internally consistent and predict things that are physically possible given the other parameters the model is predicting. I just don't understand how they've gotten so much worse at that. 

[Omegaraptor]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is definitely a cold problem. Daytime highs in the mid 40s does not equal accumulating snow. 

Definitely a cold problem IMBY. Currently 36.3˚F with slushy rain.

[Willamette Weenie]

Got friends in Salem telling me it's sticking there... apparently in Turner and areas around as well. 

[icyasf]

1.5” at my parents house west of of campus!! 

[MWG]

37F and finally rain/snow mix and breezy so feels even colder.  

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

What is particularly frustrating is that phantom snow maps have been an issue for a relatively long time. You read stories about GFS upgrades but they don't seem to help, at least for our area.

Story 5 years ago, with Judah being quoted.

https://wapo.st/49ybKBz

It it’s all intentional. Forecasters need jobs too. I should add the HRRR was a joke yesterday too.