May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So it looks like the ridge will be short lived. Perhaps more rain before the summer dome sets in. My complaining was successful. 

I don’t buy the short lived ridge idea until the Euro’s on board.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t buy the short lived ridge idea until the Euro’s on board.

Yeah there is a cluster of GEFS members that have an even bigger ridge than the first one for the weekend of the 18th-19th… 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Yesterday ended up being quite sunny after some morning showers. 57/44 spread. Looks like VUO put up a 59/46. Meanwhile PDX was the only spot within a couple hundred miles to go 60+.

Got chilly overnight with some clearing and a low of 42. Partly to mostly cloudy and 52 now.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t buy the short lived ridge idea until the Euro’s on board.

Euro is trending the right direction. Have some faith, it is only May after all. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Euro is trending the right direction. Have some faith, it is only May after all. 

May has been a warm, ridgy and dryish month more often than not recently. But that’s good to hear about the Euro.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So it looks like the ridge will be short lived. Perhaps more rain before the summer dome sets in. My complaining was successful. 

Amazing how effective weenie mode can be.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t buy the short lived ridge idea until the Euro’s on board.

Someone on the Canadian forum posted the spaghetti charts for YVR this morning and the only clear signal I see is for a round of torching starting Friday and lasting until about the 13th. Beyond then, no strong signals. Goofus operational has a second hump but that is not reflected in the ensemble mean.

[Phishy Wx]

82 burger on Saturday here

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

82 burger on Saturday here

81 burger being forecast for MBY that day.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

May has been a warm, ridgy and dryish month more often than not recently. But that’s good to hear about the Euro.

Looks like you’re going to get your way, again.

[Meatyorologist]

Nice to see models converging on an end to this thing. Could be as early as Monday... Today's Euro has a stout marine layer all through that afternoon, and there's now a decent chance heights don't recover in the days after that.

Given the way this Spring has gone, I'd say there are good odds the trough at D8-10 really happens, or perhaps even gets pushed forward in timing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like you’re going to get your way, again.

Let’s face it, cold is just harder to come by everywhere. So we’re stuck fighting over table scraps.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t buy the short lived ridge idea until the Euro’s on board.

Buy, buy, buy!

Seems like the Euro has been folding more lately. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A little later this year than normal but PDX first 80 looks like it will happen on Thursday. Then we won’t have to wait long until the first 90 as it looks like it could happen on Friday. Mother’s Day weekend looks great. Mother’s Day is perfect, not too hot and nice weather to take mom out for lunch.  

[MossMan]

FINALLY blue skies overhead! 

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nice to see models converging on an end to this thing. Could be as early as Monday... Today's Euro has a stout marine layer all through that afternoon, and there's now a decent chance heights don't recover in the days after that.

Given the way this Spring has gone, I'd say there are good odds the trough at D8-10 really happens, or perhaps even gets pushed forward in timing.

Looks like a more Niña like north-focused trough. Doesn’t make it south of the OR/CA border at all on the Euro. Luckily their snowpack and reservoirs are in good shape down there.

Funny enough the Goofus is back to PNW ridging in that timeframe.

[Phil]

With the shift across guidance, has come a more niña-like regime (projected) in tropical forcing. Still dominated by MJO/subseasonal conponents, but no hints of that niño-like LF signal near the dateline anymore. 

It’s still relatively early, but perhaps the upcoming gyration in the pattern will mark the end of residual niño elements to the system state, and the onset of more systematic -ENSO tendency.

Which would be unfortunate for CA/SW US, though hopefully the last 2yrs have offerred some degree of insurance.

If there’s any saving grace for them, it’s that we don’t have that ridiculously wide & poleward WHEM-NPAC ITCZ/HC system that we saw in 2021 and 2022 (and 2017), so we *should* avoid that beastly, north-shifted 4CH pattern that roasted the SW/Interior West without relent. But I doubt it’ll be enough to avoid widespread above normal departures just about everywhere.

[Phil]

 

[Phil]

NOAA’s May outlook could be in trouble. I don’t see this verifying.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

NOAA’s May outlook could be in trouble. I don’t see this verifying.

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s face it, cold is just harder to come by everywhere. So we’re stuck fighting over table scraps.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

42 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

He isn’t happy unless the entire state is pink. 

[westcoastexpat]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

NOAA’s May outlook could be in trouble. I don’t see this verifying.

Here is the May 2024 outlook 

[RentonHill]

few small changes and we can totally reuse these next winter. Have 34 of them left . I believe!!

 

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Lmfao. I have no idea how that happened.  

[Phishy Wx]

45 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

few small changes and we can totally reuse these next winter. Have 34 of them left . I believe!!

 

 

Need more Palm trees

[Phil]

The frogs are loving all this Tim weather.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice evening. Ended up with 3.76” since Friday. Almost 5” on the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Barnsdall is a nice area. The town itself is a dump, but the countryside is very pretty with some nice properties. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous time of year. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous time of year. 

Did your trees finally get some leaves? Seems a bit early!

 

I think you did the same thing as Phil, these photos are from last year

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Did your trees finally get some leaves? Seems a bit early!

 

I think you did the same thing as Phil, these photos are from last year

Lol. We get leaves a bit earlier than Tim

jokes. But seriously they are finally starting to leaf out as you can see. Much further along than last year. When I was in C Oregon last week it was clear the full leaf out has not yet arrived. Still looked pretty dormant, though fairly green. 

[Tanis Leach]

Honestly, I think I'm going to punt the forecast by a day. For chances above 90 the downslope winds are slightly stronger, but 850s are slightly lower, so I'll hold 89 for Friday for now, since in my mind they wash out. Either way I'll take a closer look at the downslope effects tomorrow. 

 

I have noticed though despite the lower 850s, The Euro has gone up in temperature at 2m, due to the downslope winds, which it isn't amazing at modeling the strength. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 hours ago, RentonHill said:

few small changes and we can totally reuse these next winter. Have 34 of them left . I believe!!

 

 

Only 34? Light work

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Barnsdall is a nice area. The town itself is a dump, but the countryside is very pretty with some nice properties. 

If only there were some mountains or large bodies of water nearby. 

Then it might be expensive.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yes, two weeks of coolish anomalies totally disproves long term climate warming

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful day here. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and lots of sunbreaks. 59/42 spread.

Tonight could get chilly with temps already down into the 40s, clearing skies and winds slacking off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If only there were some mountains or large bodies of water nearby. 

Then it might be expensive.

Yeah. God forbid working families have an affordable place to live. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Models are struggling 

[Tyler Mode]

Down to 34.5 so far.  Looking forward to the chances of northern lights this week as skies clear.