snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 At least the ECMWF is much chillier than the GFS overall. Obviously this pattern is extremely complex as evidenced by the myriad of changes we've seen in the various models over the last day. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: Euro still looks a lot closer to something good next weekend than the GFS or the previous Euro run, but still a huge step back from yesterday’s epic 12z. Yeah. The good news is that stupid offshore low that messes up the GFS is very deemphasized on this Euro run. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 One thing I'm pretty confident of at this point given the ENSO, QBO, solar context we're in is we'll see one really good month this winter. Beyond that I'm not going speculate. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Nice weekend. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, iFred said: Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there. Yeah....moving isn't as easy for some of us as it sounds. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: One thing I'm pretty confident of at this point given the ENSO, QBO, solar context we're in is we'll see one really good month this winter. Beyond that I'm not going speculate. Only one????? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Only one????? Yes. And only from Everett northward. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, iFred said: Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there. Post of the day! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Only one????? I'm just saying if you look at the best analogs a fair number had one really good month. That is probably the most likely outcome. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Yes. And only from Everett northward. It’s a good thing this forecast is just an idea and doesn’t actually exist. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, MossMan said: Post of the day! The guy he was replying to is being a bit of an arse. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I'm just saying if you look at the best analogs a fair number had one really good month. That is probably the most likely outcome. I guess it comes down to what your idea of a “really good month” is. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, iFred said: Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there. Bravo! Yes, I must say old chap, putting but an ounce of stock in the models beyond anymore than one half a fortnight is quite simply balderdash! If there was anything my time in the rowing club at Yale taught me it is that it is a clear and utter exercise in futility to conduct one’s self in any way otherwise. 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The guy he was replying to is being a bit of an arse. Only a bit of an arse? I guess I must up my game! 1 2 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Not sure why everyone was eyeing the next week period anyways. Halloween is still almost 3 weeks away. Snow. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Not sure why everyone was eyeing the next week period anyways. Halloween is still almost 3 weeks away. Snow. Not sure why everyone is always not sure why other people have different preferences. Some chilly offshore flow, crisp sunny days and frost in mid October would have been a fun change of pace IMO. Especially since it been so warm lately. To me it has no bearing on whether we see snow three months from now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Jesse said: Not sure why everyone is always not sure why other people have different preferences. Some chilly offshore flow, crisp sunny days and frost in mid October would have been a fun change of pace IMO. Especially since it been so warm lately. To me it has no bearing on whether we see snow three months from now. Given the context a cold October wasn't necessary this year, but I would have liked it. This has really been a dud of an autumn so far. At least today is solidly cool. I remember hating the autumn of 1988 also, so there is that. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Love that clip. That is definitely Jim. But......."It's a LOCK!" Just giving you a hard time Jim. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 I can live with what the EPS and EPS control are showing. The EPS control is very much like the ECMWF operational is showing a chilly trough a couple of days later than the period we have been focusing on. The mean still shows us getting brushed with Canadian air next weekend. Maybe we will at least get our first lows in the 30s. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, puyallupjon said: Love that clip. That is definitely Jim. But......."It's a LOCK!" Just giving you a hard time Jim. I'm not saying it this year. The only prediction I'm making is a good shot at one really solid month this winter. In this context it's reasonably safe, but as we know Mother Nature will do what she wants. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Lol. This place is one of a kind. Winter canceled! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, iFred said: Starting to get breezy in Everett. Also, it’s dark. It's daylight here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 0.12” so far today...1.70” on the month. 54 and light rain currently. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Given the context a cold October wasn't necessary this year, but I would have liked it. This has really been a dud of an autumn so far. At least today is solidly cool. I remember hating the autumn of 1988 also, so there is that. We might have to wait. November 88' wasn't bad. We had snow in Spokane on election day, after record warmth on Halloween. I have a feeling about February-April. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, van city said: Lol. This place is one of a kind. Winter canceled! There’s always next winter. Just a shame this ones already ruined. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: There’s always next winter. Just a shame this ones already ruined. Winter will be just fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 12z Op runs were too progressive which unfortunately slides the ridge over us. No surprise there. The EPS isn't much better. With La Nina strengthening and taking hold I would think that will favor a progressive pattern more so than any blocking in the Gulf of Alaska. 00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes 00z ECMWF in 8 hours 39 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: There’s always next winter. Just a shame this ones already ruined. It ain't over until it's over 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 12z Op runs were too progressive which unfortunately slides the ridge over us. No surprise there. The EPS isn't much better. With La Nina strengthening and taking hold I would think that will favor a progressive pattern more so than any blocking in the Gulf of Alaska. 00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes 00z ECMWF in 8 hours 39 minutes Ninas can actually produce spectacular GOA blocking like Jan 1943, Jan 1950, Nov 1955, Jan 1972, Feb 1989, Dec 1998, Feb 2011, and many others. The positive QBO makes that more likely according to Phil and the records seem to bear that out. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 1.88" so far this month. Close to average to date. Looks like Jim jinxed us yet again. Looks like a cold October for the Great Lakes. Hey now! I played a smaller role in the jinxing too. I would appreciate some recognition for that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It ain't over until it's over I think people are just kind of exaggerating right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hey now! I played a smaller role in the jinxing too. I would appreciate some recognition for that. Yeah...who would have thought they would have a near historic cold October in the East. Just the way it goes sometimes. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: It's daylight here. This is so funny every time! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Looks like a I may have a shot at a 54 degree high today. Solidly below normal. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hey now! I played a smaller role in the jinxing too. I would appreciate some recognition for that. I duly acknowledge you: Good work, sir! 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 52/48 so far today. We have had the fire going all day. We had it going about a week ago in the morning, but this is the first time we have needed it all day. Little nervous about these winds this afternoon. We got the generator last week, but the electrician won't be here to hook it up for another week or two. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Funny how the edge of the clouds almost perfectly matches the Oregon California border. Looks like the board name has changed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Ninas can actually produce spectacular GOA blocking like Jan 1943, Jan 1950, Nov 1955, Jan 1972, Feb 1989, Dec 1998, Feb 2011, and many others. The positive QBO makes that more likely according to Phil and the records seem to bear that out. +QBO does tend to favor a more poleward GOA/Aleutian ridge during the cold season. All else being equal. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: There’s always next winter. Just a shame this ones already ruined. Only for those south of Everett. Lots of North Sound / BCLM Specials on tap. Everybody else needs to practice their singing: 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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