Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Need foooooooooooooooood. 18z GFS I think will mirror more closely to the GEM, EURO or a blend of the two. C'MON!!!! 18z GFS in 2 hour 38 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Day 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Wow, Euro trending in the right direction...wild. Really gonna be an interesting week. Didn't expect to see this kinda model surfing this early! 1 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Euro still looking solidly chilly. Seems like the 12z GFs may be a slight warm outlier at this early stage of the game. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9 Looks boring, but chilly at the surface. I would prefer a more active pattern over a continual ridgefest though. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Euro still looking solidly chilly. Seems like the 12z GFs may be a slight warm outlier at this early stage of the game. Yep, and if the trend we've seen the past 4-6 runs continues this will be quite a cold snap. 6z GFS in 14 hours 34 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Day 10 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks boring, but chilly at the surface. I would prefer a more active pattern over a continual ridgefest though. I’ll update your current preferences in my weather forum spreadsheet. Thanks! 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Kuchera snowfall: I’m almost in the lightest shade of grey!!! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Get well soon DAK! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m almost in the lightest shade of grey!!! Same! Woot! 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. He was setting himself up for an epic letdown the moment he started getting bullish about epic cold. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12z GEM Ensembles Minimum Temps Portland: Mean temp 24 F. Cluster of members down to 19 F. Seattle: Mean temp 30 F: Cluster of members down to 27 F. Yakima: Mean temp 12 F. Cluster of members down to 8 F. Spokane: Mean temp 12 F. Cluster of members down to 8 F. Bellingham: Mean temp 28 F. Cluster of members down to 24 F. Salem: Mean temp 26 F. Cluster of members down to 20 F. Eugene: Mean temp 25 F. Cluster of members down to 22 F. Bozeman: Mean temp 4 F. Cluster of members down to 0 F. (Colder when factoring in snowfall) 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 If this area can't at least get rid of the drought this season I'm going to be pretty convinced our climate is broken. And it's already given that it'll be warmer than average to some degree. Not even funny anymore. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Yup. The PNA is -4 right now, but we have yet to see any benefit from it. Nearly constant south winds. The PNA being so tanked has certainly set the stage for the hammer to drop like it's going to. We don’t have a mature cold season wavetrain right now. Leading October EOFs for PNA/NPO translate differently over space and time vs January. If this upcoming pattern were to manifest again in January, it would be an icebox almost everywhere, similar to Dec 1983 or Dec/Jan 1984/85. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: He was setting himself up for an epic letdown the moment he started getting bullish about epic cold. He always does this that's why I just look at the models and see what they are showing and not wish cast. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite. Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral). Andrew should be happy. I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that. 1 3 1 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite. Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral). I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that. Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1. 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Was looking at the downtown data for Portland from the late 1800s yesterday. Pretty amazing how frequent wicked arctic outbreaks were. I can’t remember the year, but there was one in the mid 1880s in the middle of February that had multiple sub freezing highs. Then one in February 1883 that had a 14/7 day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12Z EPS looks pretty warm in the day 8-15 day period... 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS looks pretty warm in the day 8-15 day period... The trees 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, Phil said: I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite. Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral). Andrew should be happy. I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that. Now your speaking my language!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1. I am now drooling! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS looks pretty warm in the day 8-15 day period... Inversion season is nearing! C'mon fake cold!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Inversion season is nearing! C'mon fake cold!!!! Definitely in the inversion season now... but it might be a little more active than the 850mb would indicate. Here is the 500mb map from the same period: 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Definitely in the inversion season now... but it might be a little more active than the 850mb would indicate. Here is the 500mb map from the same period: What do precip maps look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: What do precip maps look like? Various shades of green or yellow overlaying a specific geographical area. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: 12z Euro looking good. Yeah you like the trend of stronger blocking, energy holding further west, cold trough edging west towards us..... Let's keep that going. 00z ECMWF in 9 hours 36 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1. I liked this post. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Various shades of green or yellow overlaying a specific geographical area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: What do precip maps look like? Same 8-15 day period... 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Same 8-15 day period... Thanks. Not much. That'll change into the 1st week of November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1. Probably something like that. I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences. Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov (after the zonal firehose), followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December. 1 1 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Probably something like that. I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences. Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov, followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December. December’s gonna be warm, relatively speaking. 1 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: December’s gonna be warm, relatively speaking. The same temperature all month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, El_Nina said: The same temperature all month. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, Deweydog said: December’s gonna be warm, relatively speaking. Relative to what? I think a warm December is hard to justify, as a forecast. Of course, even if I’m right, there are still ways for it to happen regardless. And if I’m wrong, well, it wouldn’t be the first time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 40 minutes ago, Phil said: Probably something like that. I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences. Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov (after the zonal firehose), followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December. November 2006 was pretty intense up here in the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley. Numerous atmospheric rivers, damaging windstorms, and then a major snowstorm at the end of the month followed by a significant arctic outbreak. I would not complain about a repeat. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Relative to what? I think a warm December is hard to justify, as a forecast. Of course, even if I’m right, there are still ways for it to happen regardless. And if I’m wrong, well, it wouldn’t be the first time. Nina Decembers have a tendency to hedge toward the benign. And if there’s an opportunity for warmth, our current climate will typically seize upon it. We’ll C! 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Here is todays ECMWF 46 day forecast (weeklies) 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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