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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

EURO showing a pretty insane AR over NW OR/SW WA on Monday.

  • Rain 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. I'd be happy with this.

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

Hoping it verifies...looking quite stormy and wet coming up. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Got down to 27F now up to 42F with a few clouds.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Pretty cool to see EUG get down to 27 this morning and SLE 30. 

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Got down to 31 here. Mostly sunny and 43 here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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EC Ensemble

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_strea

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC Ensemble out to almost 300 hrs

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_strea

Just wondering, does Weatherbell have the 500mb anomaly map for the EPS?  Only seeing the 850's doesn't tell the whole story.  Need both.

So the general theme for the later part of the EPS is a signal for troughing.  Nothing spectacular, but looks like it could be good for mountain snow.  And of course it is hard to get a real strong signal for anything that far out.  

image.thumb.png.d7696b13c07f35f2fa10ffc62ed17ebf.png

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7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just wondering, does Weatherbell have the 500mb anomaly map for the EPS?  Only seeing the 850's doesn't tell the whole story.  Need both.

So the general theme for the later part of the EPS is a signal for troughing.  Nothing spectacular, but looks like it could be good for mountain snow.  And of course it is hard to get a real strong signal for anything that far out.  

image.thumb.png.d7696b13c07f35f2fa10ffc62ed17ebf.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-16051

That one?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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IR Imagery
It may not look like much, but our wave/ low pressure system for Friday is developing now. This is well offshore near 48 N, 148 W. When viewing the loop it is evident there is a circulation center. All eyes on this feature the next 12-18 hours to see how much it does or doesn't develop. It is riding a powerful 170kt jet stream with plenty of cold air feeding into it as well. C'MON!!!!
11-12-20 1130 AM IR.png
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18z NAM max wind gusts. The speeds for WA are actually achieved with the frontal passage later this evening/tonight. Tomorrow morning only has gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Oregon's peak around 4AM or shortly thereafter.

1605279600-3IeaNjGxy7o.png

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Had a hard freeze this morning, crunchy white grass and decent fog too.
Low was 10, now about 38.

So far I've only recorded 1/10" of actual snow one day, two days of a trace and wet. Maybe this next storm gives me my first 1-3 inch event.

3-day snowfall here shows 5.0" for my place. We'll see.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1605182400-Hez65SoDy0w.png

Signal for cold?

  • Sun 1
  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Will probably end up over Olympia like it usually does. Might squeeze a bit out of it first.

North Bend, WA north to Mossman's house will likely be ground zero. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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55 minutes ago, iFred said:

@snow_wizardwhat do you have for the winter of 1893-94?

Hey.... I know some historic stuff, too 😉

That was a 2nd year, moderate Nina. Pretty classic progression with a very mild December that flipped to frequently troughy and snowy after early January. Like with many Ninas the peak was at the end of winter with a great arctic airmass and arctic front snow dump February 18-20 (similar event to February 2011). Another good snowstorm earlier in the month. And a lot of border-hugging Fraser river stuff in January.

Also some activity in November. Portland had its earliest snowfall since 1835 (?) on 11/2/1893, and the early season cold even led to this disaster

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Street_Bridge_disaster

Seattle also had snow in a separate event later in that month, with measurable snow in Seattle in November, December, January, February, and March.

The snowmelt from the big Nina ski season in 1894 also led to the worst spring flooding in the region's history.

https://www.oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/willamette_flood_1894_/#.X62fP2hKjIU

http://www.chilliwackmuseum.ca/floods/Flood_3.html

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9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is the ECMWF weeklies:

 

14-km_EPS_46-DAYS_North_America_5-day_Avg_500Z_Anom.gif

Looks like ridging building in the GOA and SE toward the end there...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, maybe, or a mega inversion? What does Troutdale look like?

Highs

1605182400-Epbd9RyYwz0.png

Lows

1605182400-54fCkjWGtn0.png

Hmmm

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1605182400-kWs73V7yOmk.png

Highs for Yakima...something brewing?

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Will probably end up over Olympia like it usually does. Might squeeze a bit out of it first.

I remember the AR event last December that was shown to be going into the Portland area for several days then ended up going north into the Seattle area. That was the biggest AR event I can remember with 4” of rain in a little less than 24 hours. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I remember the AR event last December that was shown to be going into the Portland area for several days then ended up going north into the Seattle area. That was the biggest AR event I can remember with 4” of rain in a little less than 24 hours. 

I know everyone wants to have this conversation, so I’m going to get it started. 
 

OREGON IS DUE FOR EVERY LARGE WINTER EVENT THIS SEASON. PUGET SOUND DESERVES NO INTERESTING WEATHER. WE NEED TO MAKE IT FAIR!!!

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3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I know everyone wants to have this conversation, so I’m going to get it started. 
 

OREGON IS DUE FOR EVERY LARGE WINTER EVENT THIS SEASON. PUGET SOUND DESERVES NO INTERESTING WEATHER. WE NEED TO MAKE IT FAIR!!!

Lol I wasn’t aware of the lack of interesting weather down there! I’ll make sure to not wish/pray for any snow here this winter and to only send my prayers down south. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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It hasn't rained here in like 4 years. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I remember the AR event last December that was shown to be going into the Portland area for several days then ended up going north into the Seattle area. That was the biggest AR event I can remember with 4” of rain in a little less than 24 hours. 

Yeah, they often end up a little north of forecasted this far out.

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Tomorrow's storm? Forget it. Models have long since abandoned it as it's begun to merge with the jet.

The real deal looks to come Tuesday. Look at that f****** storm!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

Huge curveball on the GFS in a time period of relatively huge uncertainty. Even some CAA as that back-end occlusion taps into the weak arctic intrusion in inland BC. Wild stuff; very synoptically interesting. Bears A LOT of watching.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow's storm? Forget it. Models have long since abandoned it as it's begun to merge with the jet.

The real deal looks to come Tuesday. Look at that f****** storm!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

Huge curveball on the GFS in a time period of relatively huge uncertainty. Even some CAA as that back-end occlusion taps into the weak arctic intrusion in inland BC. Wild stuff; very synoptically interesting. Bears A LOT of watching.

Not going to believe anything until I can see the whites of the eyes and we are within 24 hours. Already experienced the first burn of the season. Now I'm a bit salty.

Although, I will say, kind of cool to see a 957mb low right off the coast.

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow's storm? Forget it. Models have long since abandoned it as it's begun to merge with the jet.

The real deal looks to come Tuesday. Look at that f****** storm!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

Huge curveball on the GFS in a time period of relatively huge uncertainty. Even some CAA as that back-end occlusion taps into the weak arctic intrusion in inland BC. Wild stuff; very synoptically interesting. Bears A LOT of watching.

Tomorrow’s storm still looks quite gusty for OR!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow's storm? Forget it. Models have long since abandoned it as it's begun to merge with the jet.

The real deal looks to come Tuesday. Look at that f****** storm!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

Huge curveball on the GFS in a time period of relatively huge uncertainty. Even some CAA as that back-end occlusion taps into the weak arctic intrusion in inland BC. Wild stuff; very synoptically interesting. Bears A LOT of watching.

Hopefully that one doesn’t Peter out like tomorrow’s storm did. We should know by Monday night. 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Hopefully that one doesn’t Peter out like tomorrow’s storm did. We should know by Monday night. 

At the very least it'll keep us occupied for a few days. Better than the endless bore many of our falls and winters provide.

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At the very least it'll keep us occupied for a few days. Better than the endless bore many of our falls and winters provide.

So true!! Last November and December were just painful!! 

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Nice low but it shows about 20 to 25 for the seattle metro area but does it turn northward or go south?

It guts itself northward, sparing the region except maybe the coast of damaging winds.

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