December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

@ Tom,

Thanks for that response. As always, I love your weather enthusiasm! Fires me up everyday. I hope the data you mention holds true as we head towards the second half of the month.  COLD AND SNOW....COME ON!

 

Yes, the next 4-9 days may be more seasonable or even colder than average, but, that's after the fact. Based off the cycling pattern, 47 days, the next 10 days following the deep cold for October, we went into another very warm stretch in the country's midsection. KC soared into the 70's for several days to open Nov. This is next 4-9 days you speak of. Do you agree on the 47ish day cycle?

In other words, due to the unknown influences, we can't use the LRC to predict colder periods or warmer periods? Gary Lezak claims that is not true. I go round and round with him, love the dude, but, the goal posts sure do move a lot...with him.

I'm driving to Neb. right now, I want to see snow following! Just kidding, I'll just pull up traffic cams to see it. 

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@ Tom,

Thanks for that response. As always, I love your weather enthusiasm! Fires me up everyday. I hope the data you mention holds true as we head towards the second half of the month.  COLD AND SNOW....COME ON!

 

Yes, the next 4-9 days may be more seasonable or even colder than average, but, that's after the fact. Based off the cycling pattern, 47 days, the next 10 days following the deep cold for October, we went into another very warm stretch in the country's midsection. KC soared into the 70's for several days to open Nov. This is next 4-9 days you speak of. Do you agree on the 47ish day cycle?

In other words, due to the unknown influences, we can't use the LRC to predict colder periods or warmer periods? Gary Lezak claims that is not true. I go round and round with him, love the dude, but, the goal posts sure do move a lot...with him.

I'm driving to Neb. right now, I want to see snow following! Just kidding, I'll just pull up traffic cams to see it. 

The record warm open to November will almost certainly cycle back through in future cycles, I'm really worried about a hot/dry summer for a lot of us on here, esp the western/southern Sub.  That warm part of the cycle in early Nov was influence by a +EPO and ZERO high lat Blocking, contrary to what we will be experiencing during this cycle. 

Sky High AO/NAO...the Arctic was cold and thus created a Zonal Flow aloft...

Zonal Flow on Oct 30th...

 

The saving grace this go-around is the expansive high lat blocking but we are still dealing with the influence of the +EPO...you see how this makes sense???

 

 

[Beltrami Island]

Doesn't a +EPO have more influence on most of the CONUS than -NAO?....in other words doesn't the Pacific Ocean have more influence than the Atlantic Ocean, given the west to east  movement of weather systems in the mid latitudes?

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

How amazing, the border is shut down to cold air as well!

[Minny_Weather]

Every ensemble loses the cold air in Canada about as quickly as it puts it in Canada.

[james1976]

4 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

How amazing, the border is shut down to cold air as well!

GROSS

[Minny_Weather]

EPS member #37 looks pretty good for me. Let's go e37!

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Niko said:

Have to watch next week for potential systems. Cold air will be available. The NAO  and AO will be negative w blocking finally taking hold as well. I just hope they don't get suppressed this time around. The EC could see a snowstorm as well (Philly-NYC) Boston might be too far north. SEMI..stay tuned. Something is trying to get going here.

Here's an old school rule of thumb. When a system hits a zone just north of you like this weekend's, the one following will never be yours. It will go south/east. This has never failed in all my adult years of watching the wx. Tom's graphic looks spot-on. We get to sit on the side-lines again and watch others enjoy early winter action. But, this has happened before in many years that ended up being great winters here too. Just how it often plays out. 81-82 did it. 10-11 did it, and even 13-14 had a synoptic storm or two southeast of here before the mid-December storm that locked-in the JFM storm track bonanza for SMI. Would be nice to get something around the holidays tho and not have to wait a whole month. We shall see..

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

Doesn't a +EPO have more influence on most of the CONUS than -NAO?....in other words doesn't the Pacific Ocean have more influence than the Atlantic Ocean, given the west to east  movement of weather systems in the mid latitudes?

 

 

Absolutely, the EPO has a larger influence IMO.  Can you imagine if the teleconnections had a +AO/NAO???  We’d be in shorts and sleeves!

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Here's an old school rule of thumb. When a system hits a zone just north of you like this weekend's, the one following will never be yours. It will go south/east. This has never failed in all my adult years of watching the wx. Tom's graphic looks spot-on. We get to sit on the side-lines again and watch others enjoy early winter action. But, this has happened before in many years that ended up being great winters here too. Just how it often plays out. 81-82 did it. 10-11 did it, and even 13-14 had a synoptic storm or two southeast of here before the mid-December storm that locked-in the JFM storm track bonanza for SMI. Would be nice to get something around the holidays tho and not have to wait a whole month. We shall see..

My thinking is that this will go south of SMI and bypass us, giving us lots of clouds and seasonably cold temps. EC, look-out. They are already calling for a potent Winterstorm potential, especially for Boston, which can receive 7"+. NYC looking like several of inches. Not set in stone yet, but has growing probability.

[Niko]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The mid-week system next is showing signs of a Miller B Midwest Storm Track that will ultimately produce a Nor' Easter...

 

A double-barreled low will develop over the MW/OHV and then a powerful Low along the EC...this looks to be the next snow event for parts of the S MW into the Lower Lakes???

 

 

 

This map is a little off. Snows will be near the coast, if not on the coast. Boston is in line of receiving a lot of snow and NYC not that far. Already in their forecasts. Still couple of days to track it. Hopefully, SMI can benefit something from this LP area b4 approaching the Appalachian Mts and regenerating its strength off the coast to a Nor'Easter.

[Niko]

An Iceberg about to hit South Atlantic Island......

https://twitter.com/i/status/1336362495188103169

[Tom]

5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Thank you Niko, jaster, Tom, Clinton and many others I have probably missed for rooting for me to end the 6 year skid here. I don't express enough how thankful and appreciative I am for you guys and gals. It's been hard on this weather lover when I only have like one season, zero snow now and storm season hits Alabama instead of Oklahoma now or not at all. Lol. Kinda like the snow. It's snowed more in Galveston and Houston TX the last 5 years than it has at my location. I don't have to express much more in futility after that statement. Lol.

I appreciate the community of friends we all have here. Love you all.

12z Euro... @OKwx2k4, where are you on this map???

 

[Tom]

The midweek system looking better for IN/OH and possibly S MI..

[whatitdo]

https://howmuchwillitsnow.com/in/kalamazoo/mi

@jaster220 cool website that shows the days of snowfall in a chart like representation. So far Kalamazoo has had only 1 inch total snowfall the whole season (and all were pretty much trace events). Over the last 6 years, the average has been 57.5 inches of snow. Judging how next weeks forecast is looking, it seems that in order to get to at least average snowfall the rest of the year, it has to look somewhat like the winter of 2017-2018 did. So it's possible we still see an average snowfall winter but it would have to get going pretty soon if we stand a shot. Or else it's looking like we can be below the previous low in the last 6 years of 45 inches (2016-2017). What are your thoughts?

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Niko said:

My thinking is that this will go south of SMI and bypass us, giving us lots of clouds and seasonably cold temps. EC, look-out. They are already calling for a potent Winterstorm potential, especially for Boston, which can receive 7"+. NYC looking like several of inches. Not set in stone yet, but has growing probability.

With all the warmth at this early season, my money would be on an interior snowstorm vs the coast.

CPC seeing that outcome also

 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

The midweek system looking better for IN/OH and possibly S MI..

Thx. GRR has decided that'll be wrong and is siding with the GFS which keeps snow outta the Mitt. I'll take another coating with it being cold enough to stay a minute as a consolation. Let's see.

[Niko]

49 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

With all the warmth at this early season, my money would be on an interior snowstorm vs the coast.

CPC seeing that outcome also

 

There will be an Arctic High Pressure that will provide cold air down into the storm. This will be an all out snowstorm on the coast (i-95 corridor will be looking at close to a foot or more, if this storm happens) if it takes the correct track.

 

[Niko]

@jaster220

If this storm happens, I might fly to NYC to experience this major snowstorm.

Btw: Almost every major computer model is on board for a classic I-95 snowstorm for Wed and Thu timeframe

Note: possibly more snow for them for the weekend as another storm will take aim for them. Looking like a snowy week for the big cities.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

There will be an Arctic High Pressure that will provide cold air down into the storm. This will be an all out snowstorm on the coast (i-95 corridor will be looking at close to a foot or more, if this storm happens) if it takes the correct track.

 

Well ofc they'll get artic air while we get rain since this is acting more like a Nino pattern than a Nina, lol

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Well ofc they'll get artic air while we get rain since this is acting more like a Nino pattern than a Nina, lol

Amigo, if we had cold air in place, we would have been looking at 10"+ for our regions w this weekend storm......My area is expecting to get maybe more than an inch of liq tomorrow.

[Niko]

Next week for SMI looks darn chilly as highs are probably going to remain in the 20s for a couple of days and lows in the teens. Maybe near 30F at best for highs. Perfect time to get a storm cranking, since deep, cold air will be in place. Nothing more gross than cold temperatures w bare ground. For now, all of next week looks dry and cold!

[jaster220]

13 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo, if we had cold air in place, we would have been looking at 10"+ for our regions w this weekend storm......My area is expecting to get maybe more than an inch of liq tomorrow.

We're finally getting our much over-due autumn soaker rain which is ofc welcomed. But with a track right on top of us, it would've been a snow to mix to rain event at best, even with cold air. My point was, the pattern is acting like a Nino which is almost always hostile for SMI, but benefits NMI (see current storm) and the EC manages to get cold at just the right time for snow to happen. Several SR models are showing a small batch of snow around here late Saturday night. Maybe I wake up Sunday to a dusting, who knows?

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Next week for SMI looks darn chilly as highs are probably going to remain in the 20s for a couple of days and lows in the teens. Maybe near 30F at best for highs. Perfect time to get a storm cranking, since deep, cold air will be in place. Nothing more gross than cold temperatures w bare ground. For now, all of next week looks dry and cold!

I don't mind some good pond icing wx tbh. Had my lights out for a while now, but I will just begin to light them after this soaker finishes and things dry up a bit. Tomorrow night perhaps.

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We're finally getting our much over-due autumn soaker rain which is ofc welcomed. But with a track right on top of us, it would've been a snow to mix to rain event at best, even with cold air. My point was, the pattern is acting like a Nino which is almost always hostile for SMI, but benefits NMI (see current storm) and the EC manages to get cold at just the right time for snow to happen. Several SR models are showing a small batch of snow around here late Saturday night. Maybe I wake up Sunday to a dusting, who knows?

That would be great....same here. They are saying that snowshowers could be around late Sat into sun-morning as colder air rushes in behind the rainstorm. Probably very little moisture left, but anything just to whiten up the ground a bit would be nice.

[jaster220]

24 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo, if we had cold air in place, we would have been looking at 10"+ for our regions w this weekend storm......My area is expecting to get maybe more than an inch of liq tomorrow.

If this were winter and we had the usual cold temps, yes most of the rain north of the SLP's and that stationary front ahead of it would be frozen and +SN would be likely for us too. The track of the storm may even have stayed south where that front is and this coulda/woulda/shoulda been another Big Dog storm similar to the Dec 2000 bliz. A true "share the wealth" system thru the heart of the sub. Sigh. But, alas it is (for us eastern peeps) going to waste thanks to the sad pattern.

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If this were winter and we had the usual cold temps, yes most of the rain north of the SLP's and that stationary front ahead of it would be frozen and +SN would be likely for us too. The track of the storm may even have stayed south where that front is and this coulda/woulda/shoulda been another Big Dog storm similar to the Dec 2000 bliz. A true "share the wealth" system thru the heart of the sub. Sigh. But, alas it is (for us eastern peeps) going to waste thanks to the sad pattern.

Look at all that moisture.....dang! What a waste. Hopefully January and February will provide the goods, if December remains dull.

[Niko]

Attm, its raining w temps at a balmy 42F. Keep in mind, my average high is in the 30s this time of the year, so, temps are averaging quite a bit AN.

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro... @OKwx2k4, where are you on this map???

 

Just left of the 5 in AR. Right on the OK/AR line.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Just left of the 5 in AR. Right on the OK/AR line.

Gotcha, now I remember...your area still has a shot at some snow down there and may not be the last one....early next weeks storm looks interesting for your area.

[Tom]

While the others on here who are snow starved, need not to worry bc the pattern remains ripe to produce a Festive Miracle for a lot of real estate across the central Sub.  Could there be a storm system to track for Christmas Eve/Day???  Some of the ensembles are certainly picking up on multiple systems during the holiday stretch.  The key to deliver arctic air into the pattern is starting to show up in the NE PAC just before Christmas.  Is this the Christmas gift we've been waiting for?  Better late then never.

Remarkably, both the EPS/GEFS are seeing this NE PAC ridge pop...the blocking up top is looking real pretty in the extended.

 

 

 

Flashbacks of NYE '14 are coming to mind and the LR GEFS (35-day) are pointing towards a very cold and wintry pattern for pretty much the entire Sub.  It does look like we are heading towards sustained real winter right around Christmas through the New Year into Jan.  I'm digging the pattern that's setting up.  The LR pattern recognition techniques are lining up and there are more runs off the CFSv2 that provide optimism.  #FlipTheScript

 

 

In a nutshell, if you missed out on the snow this weekend, the opportunities are showing up as I sit here dialing in on the next system we will be tracking.  I will say, we will continue to stay busy on here but esp during the Christmas holiday week as I'm seeing an interesting pattern setting up and we'll be tracking multiple systems.  Rest assured, we won't be experiencing a torch like last December.

 

 

[Niko]

Currently at 42F w hvy rain. Beautiful!

[Niko]

Last nite was in downtown Rochester and I gotta tell ya, the scenery was magnificent w all the decor around the stores and light poles. The aphyllous trees that were wrapped in bright holiday lights brought cheer to the street. "Tis the Season." Now, all we need is to whiten up the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

There are still some dark green blades of grass in areas with high water retention here. 

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Could there be a storm system to track for Christmas Eve/Day???

I'll be in California then lol. Still, would be nice to come back home to some white on the ground.

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Gotcha, now I remember...your area still has a shot at some snow down there and may not be the last one....early next weeks storm looks interesting for your area.

Has had that 2000 look here for months. One of my analogs. Looking like it to a "t" now. Especially if there are 3 events here by month's end.

Still looking for a destructive ice event in there somewhere.

[OKwx2k4]

Someone brought up the overall recurring cycle things...

My opinion is worth very little, but the difference is that as the pole fills with cold, the oscillation loses speed and can still phase with the tropics in cycle, but the PV (polar vortex) also has more lobes than just one and the "small side" can cycle through, where as the bigger side of the pv cycled over in October bringing the powerful cold blasts.

If that same scenario occurred exactly the same now as in October, it would snow over Galveston Bay again. Lol. That recurring pattern stuff is hard. That's why I'm learning my own ways again and adapting. 

[OKwx2k4]

Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

Someone brought up the overall recurring cycle things...

My opinion is worth very little, but the difference is that as the pole fills with cold, the oscillation loses speed and can still phase with the tropics in cycle, but the PV (polar vortex) also has more lobes than just one and the "small side" can cycle through, where as the bigger side of the pv cycled over in October bringing the powerful cold blasts.

If that same scenario occurred exactly the same now as in October, it would snow over Galveston Bay again. Lol. That recurring pattern stuff is hard. That's why I'm learning my own ways again and adapting. 

Edit/add..... 

We're going to see example of what I'm talking about in 2-3 weeks, maybe less.

This is just the "wake-up punch" early in the third round. Lol. 

[Minny_Weather]

A dusting is likely here tomorrow along a fropa. Yippie! Wind chills could approach -10*F tomorrow night.

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

A dusting is likely here tomorrow along a fropa. Yippie! Wind chills could approach -10*F tomorrow night.

Where's that shivering icon??