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Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

About 8 hours overnight of constant thunder.

Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Here is a link to photos from this morning. All were taken near Battle Ground, looking west.   It was easily one of the best displays of lightning I've ever seen in western Washington!   http://weathe

Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

49 this morning and the sun rise is now after 6 AM...fall can't be far behind!

Posted Images

BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

WRF really took the balls out of anything over the next 24 hours, although tomorrow evening looks extremely wet.  Hard to know if that should be taken seriously though...

 

Almost every run has shown some seriously wet stuff congealing tomorrow night into early Wednesday. It may just be plain old heavy rain at that point, but someone is going to get drenched (1"+).

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Almost every run has shown some seriously wet stuff congealing tomorrow night into early Wednesday. It may just be plain old heavy rain at that point, but someone is going to get drenched (1"+).

 

It is impressive on satellite/water vapor imagery.  Seems to have been injected with some tropical goodness.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

So no Insomnia round 2 for tonight?

 

 

Might just be rain... not sure.  

 

Watch the loop...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014081202&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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epiceast Newbie

epiceast

Posted
Posted

That's tomorrow night, I thought you meant tonight. I guess Im not falling asleep until 3 or 4 again.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

That's tomorrow night, I thought you meant tonight. I guess Im not falling asleep until 3 or 4 again.

 

NOT tomorrow night.

 

That loop only goes out to 9 a.m. tomorrow morning.   

 

That rain is late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Never felt such a hot wind with a thunderstorm here. Temp must have jumped 10 degrees or more.

Sounds like a heat burst...totally awesome. Had one near Charleston WV during the EML pattern years ago..feels like a hair dryer

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Sounds like a heat burst...totally awesome. Had one near Charleston WV during the EML pattern years ago..feels like a hair dryer

 

 

The storm missed me to the south... did not get a drop of rain here.    I wonder if being on the edge of the storm but just outside the rain area was the reason for burst of hot air?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Something like 2000 strikes within one hour...that's pretty much unheard of here.

 

Jim is out at Ocean Shores right now and was saying just last night that he was hoping he'd see something.

 

Wonder if the storm made it that far north.

 

Edit: Upon inspection of the lightning map it looks like he might have gotten quite a display.

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Tyler Mode Mentor

Tyler Mode

Posted
Posted

And the average high has started to slip down...

 

I was just looking at the last 17 years of record.

 

At my station, the highest August high occurs around the 15th.

 

The highest low on the 12th

 

And the lowest high and lowest low on the 21st of the month. 

 

14 of the 17 years the lowest low occurred after the 15th.  Expected of course, but something to look forward to :)

In other news, as of today we have daylight hours/sun angle equivalent to the end of April. The wavelengths will be a-changin' soon.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

And the average high has started to slip down...

 

I was just looking at the last 17 years of record.

 

At my station, the highest August high occurs around the 15th.

 

The highest low on the 12th

 

And the lowest high and lowest low on the 21st of the month. 

 

Great stats! August 15th has always been my unofficial cutoff. Beyond that it seems the shorter daylight hours/lower sun angle starts to have at least a somewhat tangible effect on observed weather.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

SPC has the slight risk extending almost to Portland. Definitely the best severe threat for most of the region in a few years, likely since 2009.

 

I kind of want to go "storm chasing" today. Where would be the best area in your opinion?

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

12z GFS basically has us in the 80s this weekend through the end of the month. As long as lows can manage to cool off a little I would actually be ok with that. Just don't want to get stuck in a pattern like last year where we are trapped in a soupy airmass for days on end with lows in the 60s every morning. Some drier air behind the low on Thursday would be wonderful.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

The storm missed me to the south... did not get a drop of rain here. I wonder if being on the edge of the storm but just outside the rain area was the reason for burst of hot air?

Yes, you were probably in the outflow. What direction was the storm from you? If it was over the higher terrain, then compressional heating (heat burst) seems to be the obvious answer, in my opinion

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

I kind of want to go "storm chasing" today. Where would be the best area in your opinion?

 

Eh, the storms in our region tend to be so pulse like in nature that I find chasing them to be fairly pointless. Unless you just pick a spot and camp out then you're probably not going to get to the action in time. I'd just stay relatively put, or go to a nearby flat area like the Hood River Valley that offers some nice views of the mountains. 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Eh, the storms in our region tend to be so pulse like in nature that I find chasing them to be fairly pointless. Unless you just pick a spot and camp out then you're probably not going to get to the action in time. I'd just stay relatively put, or go to a nearby flat area like the Hood River Valley that offers some nice views of the mountains. 

 

That's why I put it in quotes. Usually we will just go find a spot that we think will be good for viewing and hang out there (maybe get a nearby hike in too). Hood River valley is a good idea. That or somewhere on the far east side like Highway 197 south of The Dalles.

 

Although I often notice that whenever I try to find better storms elsewhere the best ones usually end up hitting my house and I would have been better off just staying put. :lol:

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

I know you didn't ask me...but...those storms keep riding up the coast range, and now a batch coming up the Cascades...

 

Yeah tough call. The best action has definitely been in the northern Coast Range so far today. Didn't see that coming. I was figuring things would be more Cascades and east side-centric.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

That's why I put it in quotes. Usually we will just go find a spot that we think will be good for viewing and hang out there (maybe get a nearby hike in too). Hood River valley is a good idea. That or somewhere on the far east side like Highway 197 south of The Dalles.

 

Although I often notice that whenever I try to find better storms elsewhere the best ones usually end up hitting my house and I would have been better off just staying put. :lol:

Try to locate near old outflow boundaries as these will probably serve as a focus for lift once the cap is breached.

 

70/64 at BLI right now. As hazy, humid, and gunky as I've ever seen it here.

:lol: @ PacNWers and "humidity"

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The new 12Z ECMWF coming out now... here is precip from 4-7 p.m. today.

 

I would expect much more in the lowlands... but the ECMWF is pretty reliable in these situations.   It seems to focus the activity in the mountains.

 

http://s27.postimg.org/gu2ymdz03/Untitled.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Weren't you almost killed by moist air a few weeks ago? #totalvagina

Lol, raped and beaten by dews in the upper 70s. Not exactly in the same ballpark

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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