December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7

Coastal storm!

[BLI snowman]

Mid December is windstorm country. About the only time we score them anymore.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er  Ohhh....

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Not bad!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mountain snow

[snow_wizard]

Really nice potential showing up on the models right now.  Hopefully something will really begin to gel this week.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Mountain snow

And with a lot more snow coming in. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Whet.

Looks like the dry is almost over.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty crazy to see so much blocking in the models even before the SSW really kicks in.  Makes you wonder what may happen afterward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really have to like where the GEM and EURO end up. GFS isn't quite there. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 Not bad!

Roll that forward 2 days and it’d be interesting.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really have to like where the GEM and EURO end up. GFS isn't quite there. 

It'll come around here in the next few days.

[Cloud]

I still like the potential for 3rd week of December timeframe. I tend not to look at the GFS much these days, so I like where the Euro is going. We should hopefully start to see something pop up on the models starting sometimes this week. Have patience.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF both take the PNA below -2 during week two.  We're getting there!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And as Jim mentioned the EC op (ensemble still running)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Early look at the EPS, hour 228.  Will post the whole thing when it is out.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and ECMWF both take the PNA below -2 during week two.  We're getting there!

BOOM!

6z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

That's awesome man, congratulations! I'm doing my pre-req's before my bachelors at North Seattle right about now. Jealous that you've completed yours already 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

Congrats!

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's awesome man, congratulations! I'm doing my pre-req's before my bachelors at North Seattle right about now. Jealous that you've completed yours already 

Enjoy community college bro. I went to CC before I transferred to my university. I had a blast and even started a frat at my community college...but that is a story for another day. What are you studying?

[Gradient Keeper]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

Why do you think we don't care? Congratulations.

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 10 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Enjoy community college bro. I went to CC before I transferred to my university. I had a blast and even started a frat at my community college...but that is a story for another day. What are you studying?

I have classes in Eng, Photography, and Pre-Calc right now. Working towards a degree in Atmos Sciences (shocker!)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS.  850's and 2m temp maps show us way above normal temp wise.  Doesn't match the pattern, which looks pretty much normal temps to me, within a few degrees.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

Good analysis on that. You're right. We need accurate maps.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS.  850's and 2m temp maps show us way above normal temp wise.  Doesn't match the pattern, which looks pretty much normal temps to me, within a few degrees.

 

Really cold down into northern BC it appears.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

The day they fix those is the day Tim files for divorce from the EPS in King County.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Canadian ensembles

Day 10-16. Really tries to get there, not yet though. Some improvement with a bit of amplification and the mean axis around ~160 W. Just waiting for a ridge merger.

 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS certainly has a colder look around day 10 than previous runs.  Maybe something to build on.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

Appreciate this analysis. Something many here have been pointing out/suspecting for a while.

[Jesse]

PDX already down to 35. Frost forming and 34 here. Was happy to see the southerlies never make it up this way today. 

Looks like PDX scored a 45/37 day. 46/36 here.

[Meatyorologist]

Alright 06z is rolling out. I've got some time so I think I can take this shift. Probably a Day 1-10 or so think like DJ does.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilling on the porch. 34 

[Meatyorologist]

Day 1

[Meatyorologist]

Day 2

[Meatyorologist]

Day 3

500th post!

[Meatyorologist]

Day 4

Ridge over the NE Pac is a bit stronger on this one. Can. archipelago lobe is a tad more SW.