Phil Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: Seems the models are more in love with the idea that she’ll take a licking but keep on ticking. The GFS/GEFS is less bullish, but the EPS (performs much better in strat) is going all in. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 12Z ECMWF shows a massive storm on New Years Day in the middle of the country... 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s a boatload of cold on Putin’s side of the pole. Evident via the jet extension triggered by the Siberian high descent. Our side is lackluster thus far, but that’ll change eventually. Been another very mild month in western Russia. Been colder to the east, but much of Eurasia has been mild. Seems like Siberia and East Asia are the sole focus of any cold air so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Right now... the Twin Cities is going through the same rapid warm to cold transition that came through here on Monday. The western suburbs are getting buried while its raining in the eastern suburbs... and it will be below zero there by tomorrow morning. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: FYI there’s no gas in Brothers in case you plan to escape to Burns for a therapeutic drive through the middle of nowhere Milican isn't even a town anymore :(. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Where is the jet extension at the end of the 12Z ECMWF? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS/GEFS is less bullish, but the EPS (performs much better in strat) is going all in. Much better, although it’s at a very familiar range. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Been another very mild month in western Russia. Been colder to the east, but much of Eurasia has been mild. Seems like Siberia and East Asia are the sole focus of any cold air so far. Next 5 days. That’s actually a decent amount of cold. Minimum anomaly is -17.2, maximum is +12, so the cold anomalies are more extreme than the warm anomalies. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Pretty day out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Garbage. Ensembles through 1/8 and no change in sight. So much for this SSWE doing anything which for the past 2-3 weeks keeps getting pushed further back I've noticed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: FYI there’s no gas in Brothers in case you plan to escape to Burns for a therapeutic drive through the middle of nowhere They don't have any rattlesnakes either due to all the pumice in the soil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I think we are losing Matt...And Jim is awol again...Not good. 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think we are losing Matt...And Jim is awol again...Not good. I’ve gone through a meteoric weenie shift to the belief the last 1/3 of January and into the first month of winter have potential. Frequent naps and journaling are recommended until then. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Matt...Get your extrapolator out of the bathroom and take a look at this! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt...Get your extrapolator out of the bathroom and take a look at this! The blue pills are working for Jim’s member!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: Big question is whether the SSW event remains wave-1 dominant (displacement & decay of PV) or transitions to feature more wave-2 (quick split). Both 2018 and 2019 had significant wave-2 components. Late Jan 1989 was the 2nd strongest SSW ever recorded in terms of amplitude, even though it was mostly wave-1. But it was so massive it didn’t really matter..wind reversal still took place and cold just poured out of the arctic. Also aided by the deposition of easterly momentum. So when the polar vortex splits, its called a wave-2 event? And this is the best outcome for a PNW arctic outbreak right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yeah I have a feeling February and March are going to continue to separate themselves from all other months in terms of snowfall up here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It would be cool to experience a winter in Burns, OR. One living at the end of the earth would be an interesting experience. Plus they get real winters out there. 9 for a low this morning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns,_Oregon We went through there for the first time last summer, to and from Steens Mountain. Even spent a night in town on the way home. Walked the neighborhoods on a cool mid-July night (temps in the 50s) and the views of the milky way were stunning. Some nice older homes too, tree lined streets. I've been told by older relatives you used to be able to see the milky way on clear nights in Portland, pre-1960ish. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 12Z Euro spits out 0.3" snow for Portland somewhere on the run. Generally a much less dynamic run than last night's 00Z, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Jesse said: Pretty day out. Fog is hanging on here, still at 33. Edited December 23, 2020 by BLI snowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, BLI snowman said: Fog is hanging on here. Really brings out the Christmas lights. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: The 12Z Euro spits out 0.3" snow for Portland somewhere on the run. Generally a much less dynamic run than last night's 00Z, though. I guess I shouldn't have muttered that the runs yesteday can't get any worse. Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: The 12Z Euro spits out 0.3" snow for Portland somewhere on the run. Generally a much less dynamic run than last night's 00Z, though. It still tries to show some overrunning at the end of the month. Pretty splitty with everything though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I guess I shouldn't have muttered that the runs yesteday can't get any worse. Yikes. Were there runs that showed more snow here yesterday? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gusty east winds here. Cold winds. I guess I'll enjoy this the next few days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Were there runs that showed more snow here yesterday? Yeah like .6", but I was referring to the overall pattern. It seems to be splitting more and more. El Nino in a La Nina. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Gusty east winds here. Cold winds. I guess I'll enjoy this the next few days. Yeah at the very least there looks to be a lot of that the next week. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Really brings out the Christmas lights. Would be nice to score a high in the 30s. I've managed a whopping 3 so far in 2020 (2 in January, 1 in November). PDX, VUO, and SPB still await their first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It still tries to show some overrunning at the end of the month. Pretty splitty with everything though. If Tim was inspired to post a frame from a run for the first time in a month you know it's a massive step back. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The blue pills are working for Jim’s member!!! He's been taking them since September. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Would be nice to score a high in the 30s. I've managed a whopping 3 so far in 2020 (2 in January, 1 in November). PDX, VUO, and SPB still await their first. Don't think we're gonna do it here locally, there is a lot of sunshine. I think I scored a high of 39 at some point back in January but I'd have to double check. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I guess I shouldn't have muttered that the runs yesteday can't get any worse. Yikes. All potential for a Eastern Pacific block is lost when Greenland goes into a rex block. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, GobBluth said: All potential for a Eastern Pacific block is lost when Greenland goes into a rex block. Yup. D**n thing looks like a permanent feature the next 2-3 weeks or it just keeps reorganizing in that general area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, GobBluth said: All potential for a Eastern Pacific block is lost when Greenland goes into a rex block. I am rusty with this stuff but I thought a Greenland block wasn't necessarily a bad thing for us. Or at least represents some kind of shake up. Seems our rather warm background state of the last several years has often featured a stubborn Greenland vortex. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 years ago today we had a nice little surprise snowstorm. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: 23 years ago today we had a nice little surprise snowstorm. 22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: 22 23 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12Z EPS looks similar to the ECMWF through day 10... but looks pretty good after that. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 23 years ago today we had a nice little surprise snowstorm. I’m getting tired of doing math all of the time. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 23 years ago today we had a nice little surprise snowstorm. That was late on the 22nd actually. What I would give for another 97-98 Super Nino right now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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