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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol that’s not saying much considering January was a torch that year. 

Okay how about this. It is tied with 2013 for the 2nd coldest January of the 21st Century. 4th coldest in the past 40 years. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Is it time to start the "jet suppression" chants? I think so.

18z GFS in 57 minutes

Would be nice if we had a suppressed jet with a load of arctic air in BC. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I might be wrong but appears to me that we do not need a "Arctic" blast to score a some measurable snow in the Puget Sound. Maybe all we can ask for is a Frazier River outflow to tap into marginal cold air. As far as Portland  is concerned, I recall a big snow event with cold air from coming from the Columbia gorge.  I would love to have a top tier Arctic blast but for whatever reason, it seems to be too difficult a task for the Pacific NW.

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Just now, SnowHawks said:

I might be wrong but appears to me that we do not need a "Arctic" blast to score a some measurable snow in the Puget Sound. Maybe all we can ask for is a Frazier River outflow to tap into marginal cold air. As far as Portland  is concerned, I recall a big snow event with cold air from coming from the Columbia gorge.  I would love to have a top tier Arctic blast but for whatever reason, it seems to be too difficult a task for the Pacific NW.

If the system on the 21st had tracked about 100 miles further south, Seattle would have gotten more than just a few flurries.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be nice if we had a suppressed jet with a load of arctic air in BC. 

Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!!

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!!

As the recent Solstice Special illustrated, for those of us far enough north to benefit from the set-up.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. 

 

9F8FAC99-6A60-4FD9-88E8-8146AF14087D.jpeg

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The EPS continues to trend colder in the believable range.  Quite low heights being progged.  We might b able to squeeze some lowland snow out of that.  The prospects after that get quite complicated due to the SSW and an emerging MJO wave both happening.  Big time players being put on the board soon.  There is no question the tropics are in full Nina mode with the 30 day SOI way over +10.  Hard to imagine us not scoring a decent cold wave sometime this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If the system on the 21st had tracked about 100 miles further south, Seattle would have gotten more than just a few flurries.

As it was my girlfriend's house in North Seattle got almost 2". Still had about an inch in her yard on Christmas morning.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. 

 

9F8FAC99-6A60-4FD9-88E8-8146AF14087D.jpeg

I remember that event pretty well. Tons of rain down here, transitioned to snow at the end, but didn’t amount to much at our house. The hills around Silverton did get a few inches and I think PDX did too.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. 

 

9F8FAC99-6A60-4FD9-88E8-8146AF14087D.jpeg

Nov 1996 was a good one.  I remember there was snow on the ground in Whatcom County before it came down here.  they had a bunch up there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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57 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!!

We had 9” of 33 degree snow.  It can happen. Would have been a pretty epic storm had it been 30F

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember that event pretty well. Tons of rain down here, transitioned to snow at the end, but didn’t amount to much at our house. The hills around Silverton did get a few inches and I think PDX did too.

Probably didn’t amount to much because the ground was too warm 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My money is on about 7-10 days of west coast ridging and then another jet extension. 

I suspect we lose the Urals ridging/+EAMT upon the completion of the SSW. So a subsequent jet retraction, and tendency toward polar (and/or NPAC) blocking seems more likely to me than another jet extension. 

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4 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Judah Cohen:

Judah Cohen

@judah47

1/ I published this table in my blog December 7 but it may be Twitter friendly. It presents my expectations during different active energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere as we are observing currently. The row highlighted in yellow is currently most appropriate.
image.thumb.png.2591cf8fd15cf7eaed0bfa913c435fde.png
2/ Quote from blog: "I expect the mild pattern for the Eastern US & Europe to continue for at least two weeks & likely longer. In the interim the regions most likely to experience cold air outbreaks are East Asia & likely including western N America.
 

Lol u ninja’d me on this.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatcom County and LMBC did quite well with the Fraser River arctic front on 11/16/1996. Clearbrook and YXX both had 16" with that storm. That was a really epic winter there.

Chilliwack to Agassiz had some ridiculous totals with that initial push of arctic air.  20-30” totals. 

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2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

When do you anticipate the models will start seeing what happens "after the jet extension", and what would that look like?

This +EAMT/NPAC jet cycle peaks during the first week of January. Afterwards it depends where the daughter vortices end up, the extent to which MJO component is triggered, and also how long the entire process takes since seasonality/wave pool climo matters a lot.

But I stand by my initial take, that the second half of January holds the highest potential for significant cold pool intrusion into NW North America.

And this is a situation that might not be “seen” by models outside 7-8 days, when we get to that point, assuming that potential is tapped (there’s certainly a lot of it!)

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect we lose the Urals ridging/+EAMT upon the completion of the SSW. So a subsequent jet retraction, and tendency toward polar (and/or NPAC) blocking seems more likely to me than another jet extension. 

You can always count on losing those urinals to get us in the Arctic air! 

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The GFS is more belated with timing versus ECMWF, but still an extremely anomalous event, verbatim.

U-wind @ 65N/10mb more than 2 standard deviations from climo. Image from Hannah Attard’s site:
 

image.thumb.png.fb6f7e726b84413d8959fa7e000516d9.png

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48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't that more Dec 1996?

No.  Just north of Bellingham had something like 16 inches total in November 1996.  I remember driving up there to check it out before the snow came down this way.  I do remember there being an incredible difference between Bellingham and Lynden that time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This guy would be fun. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

That period has some potential.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS is more belated with timing versus ECMWF, but still an extremely anomalous event, verbatim.

U-wind @ 65N/10mb more than 2 standard deviations from climo. Image from Hannah Attard’s site:
 

image.thumb.png.fb6f7e726b84413d8959fa7e000516d9.png

Looks like it has potential to shake things up. 🙂

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Definitely lowland snow on this run.  Things are starting to look interesting.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatcom County and LMBC did quite well with the Fraser River arctic front on 11/16/1996. Clearbrook and YXX both had 16" with that storm. That was a really epic winter there.

Yeah, guess it was similar in both November and December. I remember Whatcom County got hit well before everyone else that December.

Low. Solar.

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That 18z GFS is actually somewhat more “blah” in the stratosphere. Still a legit SSW, no question, but opens the door for a quicker reformation of the vortex with the wave axes.

The GFS/GEFS is handling this very differently from the ECMWF/EPS and CMC ensembles. Though obviously, I’d rather have the Euro on our side than the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, guess it was similar in both November and December. I remember Whatcom County got hit well before everyone else that December.

We had 16” before Christmas in 1996.  Then it turned to drizzle for a day before the cold came back on Christmas Day 

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Definitely lowland snow on this run.  Things are starting to look interesting.

We are peeking into mid January now and it looks like medical waste at this point.  It's hard to get excited about "potential" based on a "likely" SSW that Phil now has looking a bit less robust.  The model runs so far this winter are as bad as I've seen.  Partly due to their improved accuracy I'm sure but they have been uninspiring. Your upbeat attitude is at times inspiring but this particular run is total crap Jim.

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The 18Z was a gorgeous run with a barrage of strong storms in the 120-170 hour range which is great. Other models show the chance for some breezy conditions in that timeframe so we'll see what happens. Nice to see La Nina in effect finally.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This might get my neighbor Acer a little more optimistic! 

The Pivotal view looks a bit different than what I was looking at but it’s still 15 days out and it doesn’t really look that promising.

 

4BF7AE6F-BDD3-4D08-A3DB-6071407B92AE.png

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just got home and nice run! Looks like the GFS Op is heavily trending towards the EURO. Here we go!

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 40 minutes

Windy run with those lows spinning up offshore.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just got home and nice run! Looks like the GFS Op is heavily trending towards the EURO. Here we go!

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 40 minutes

You, Requiem and Snowiz like this run.  Why?  I must be missing something.

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8 minutes ago, Acer said:

You, Requiem and Snowiz like this run.  Why?  I must be missing something.

Again, I like this run because it's a nice La Nina storm barrage sort of run, not because it shows some sort of amazing snow potential. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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