December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Think 50˚F and rain! C’MON!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm! 00z GEFS Day 12 looks possibly promising.

[Meatyorologist]

It does look like the OP is on the ridgier end of the ensemble spread.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It does look like the OP is on the ridgier end of the ensemble spread.

Yup. Spot on with that analysis. Ensembles worlds better.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yup. Spot on with that analysis. Ensembles worlds better.

Pretty much all of the ensembles look like this.  Just don't know offhand if the timing is staying the same or always 300+ hours away.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Deweydog]

Can the Euro save winter???

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Can the Euro save winter???

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pfizer can!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Very GFS so far with the highly amplified anorexic ridge

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The 00z GEFS extended control model showed a full on arctic outbreak and practically the entire region getting buried.

So yeah... We got that going for us!

 

I would be peeing my pants extensively, both accidental and intentional.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The 00z GEFS extended control model showed a full on arctic outbreak and practically the entire region getting buried.

So yeah... We got that going for us!

 

I wish we didn't have to wait 24 hours for that to come out.  Hopefully it will be consistent, and right now seems to align with the ECMWF weeklies.  Not sure about timing between the two though.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals (MUCH Wetter. Some Mountain snow even east of the Cascades. A HINT of a dusting for lowland of Southwestern Washington.)

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome back La Nina?

6z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes

[Phil]

Weak vortex continues on the EPS starting mid-December. Keep that wave driving going baby!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Streak-breaker?

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Weak vortex continues on the EPS starting mid-December. Keep that wave driving going baby!

I would prefer -25 to -30. What would be the results? Completely shear the PV into many vortices dislodging the bitter airmass over Siberia/high arctic down into Canada/lower 48?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F for our 2nd freeze of the day.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I would prefer -25 to -30. What would be the results? Completely shear the PV into many vortices dislodging the bitter airmass over Siberia/high arctic down into Canada/lower 48?

Possibly that initially, but then I fear cold would be "used up" in the arctic. Phil will probably correct me on that one, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I would prefer -25 to -30. What would be the results? Completely shear the PV into many vortices dislodging the bitter airmass over Siberia/high arctic down into Canada/lower 48?

Probably a 1950 or 1969 repeat given IPWP based convection.

[GHweatherChris]

36 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals (MUCH Wetter. Some Mountain snow even east of the Cascades. A HINT of a dusting for lowland of Southwestern Washington.)

 

Almost teases a dusting for me as well.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A bit lower than the 18z IIRC.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Possibly that initially, but then I fear cold would be "used up" in the arctic. Phil will probably correct me on that one, though.

Nah, that’s not a real thing this time of year.

Mobile polar high/low level cold production actually improves with a disrupted vortex.

Strong vortex winters tend to have a cloudier, windier Arctic which doesn’t radiate to space as efficiently, and also churns up the ice pack/flushes old ice thru the Fram strait.

There’s literally zero upside to a strong vortex.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nah, that’s not a real thing this time of year.

Mobile polar high/low level cold production actually improves with a disrupted vortex.

Strong vortex winters tend to have a cloudier, windier Arctic which doesn’t radiate to space as efficiently, and also churns up the ice pack/flushes old ice thru the Fram strait.

There’s literally zero upside to a strong vortex.

Well good thing it'll completely dissolve by the end of January!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Need PNA to tank more than -1.... Typically that is.

[Gradient Keeper]

How's the EPS looking tonight? (500mb)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Omegaraptor]

47 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I haven't tracked it as frequently to judge consistency but FWIW the previous run was just as bold with the frigidness, if not more.

We more or less turn into the equivalent of Hoth. 

Looking forward to San Diego getting a dusting.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nearly identical with other ensemble means. (I ignore the Control runs that the drunk uncle and friends are responsible for)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

How's the EPS looking tonight?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Thanks. A frigid Alaska isn't going to get it done, BUT we do have a huge reservoir of bitter air pooling to our north. EPO must be + ....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Y'all staying up tonight Rob?