December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[weatherwonder]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the 12z GFS, not many snow chances out there the next 17 days. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

How many days until you're first winter cancel of the season Andrew?

First week of January if there is nothing interesting on the horizon. I am kind of done with winter being confined to February and March. If we don't get anything before the end of January the rest of the winter can **** itself. 

[weatherwonder]

Just now, weatherwonder said:

 

Winter is coming!

[Timmy]

PhiL we need some SSW hope!

[MossMan]

Clouding up. Had a low of 33. 

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

PhiL we need some SSW hope!

He just ran the polar stratosphere off the Jersey turnpike and made it explode in the background as he slowly walked away unharmed. I think that’s a start! 

[MossMan]

How’s the UFS/UCAR/NCAR/NAVY models looking this morning, Phil? 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ensembles for the GFS look pretty similar to previous runs.  And in the long term, guessing the ensembles are more accurate than the operational.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, Timmy said:

PhiL we need some SSW hope!

Getting into December a SSW event is not needed for the lowlands to score.  I have said it many times, SSW events are needed for top tier events, but many good snowfalls have occured without a major arctic outbreak.  Would be nice though.  And of course most SSW events that lead to arctic outbreaks don't go to the PNW anyway.  

[Deweydog]

It’s December 3rd.

[TacomaWaWx]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First week of January if there is nothing interesting on the horizon. I am kind of done with winter being confined to February and March. If we don't get anything before the end of January the rest of the winter can **** itself. 

I’ll take whatever snow we can get at my location but I do hope that we score late this month or next month this winter. Both December and January haven’t been epic as of the last decade. December had 2” in 2013 and 2017 and 3” in 2016. January had 1.5” in 2011 and 2020. 10.5” in January 2012. Both months haven’t put out anything major in awhile. Though January 2017 was pretty good down south. 

[ShawniganLake]

Even the all mighty EPS is floundering badly right now. Huge swings from 1 run to the next. 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Weather1011 said:

So basically you tried to kill someone and yet are allowed to drive still lol

Well not consciously..our vehicles had already made contact briefly and were heading towards the divider at 80mph in the pouring rain, before I kind of forced my way through him and back onto the road. It happened so fast. A wreck of some kind was almost inevitable already. But I feel guilty as hell either way. If there is a hell, I’m probably headed there.

FWIW, it was a neutral-fault accident. We were both ticketed for negligent driving, and I was given another ticket for passing on the shoulder (or trying to do so).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Like Tiger, some of my more formative years were during one of the worst stretches of PNW winters in history. I have a lot of hope for this winter, but nothing would surprise me. If we are going to have a major dud, we are off to a great start. 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Timmy said:

PhiL we need some SSW hope!

Haha. I think you guys are letting unstable model projections dominate your emotions. This winter has as much potential as any other this century. I’m more bullish now than I was back in the fall.

The vast majority of La Niña winters have periods of +PNA. Even 1949/50 (which was the most -PNA winter in recorded history) had two bouts of +PNA.

In fact, the La Niña standing wave is *the reason* for the ongoing +PNA. First half of December is wonky for wave lengths. The relationship completely changes by the second half of December.

And, this +PNA is helping to destabilize the polar vortex. So when the pattern inevitably flips..that cold will be more easily dislodged. There’s a reason many epic La Niña winters have warm/zonal patterns preceding dramatic flips to cold..those warm/+PNAish patterns are excellent for WAFz thru EA/NPAC which disrupts the PV.

There’s so much potential going forward (can already see two windows..the 2nd half of December and then the 2nd half of January)..don’t let some silly computer projections distort that reality.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Haha. I think you guys are letting unstable model projections dominate your emotions. This winter has as much potential as any other this century. I’m more bullish now than I was back in the fall.

The vast majority of La Niña winters have periods of +PNA. Even 1949/50 (which was the most -PNA winter in recorded history) had two bouts of +PNA.

In fact, the La Niña standing wave is *the reason* for the ongoing +PNA. First half of December is wonky for wave lengths. The relationship completely changes by the second half of December.

And, this +PNA is helping to destabilize the polar vortex. So when the pattern inevitably flips..that cold will be more easily dislodged. There’s a reason many epic La Niña winters have warm/zonal patterns preceding dramatic flips to cold..those warm/+PNAish patterns are excellent for WAFz thru EA/NPAC which disrupts the PV.

There’s so much potential..don’t let some silly computer projections distort that reality.

Sometimes people forget it is only December 3rd. I agree with Phil

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s December 3rd.

Might as well be March 3rd.

[ShawniganLake]

January icebox incoming

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. I think you guys are letting unstable model projections dominate your emotions. This winter has as much potential as any other this century. I’m more bullish now than I was back in the fall.

The vast majority of La Niña winters have periods of +PNA. Even 1949/50 (which was the most -PNA winter in recorded history) had two bouts of +PNA.

In fact, the La Niña standing wave is *the reason* for the ongoing +PNA. First half of December is wonky for wave lengths. The relationship completely changes by the second half of December.

And, this +PNA is helping to destabilize the polar vortex. So when the pattern inevitably flips..that cold will be more easily dislodged. There’s a reason many epic La Niña winters have warm/zonal patterns preceding dramatic flips to cold..those warm/+PNAish patterns are excellent for WAFz thru EA/NPAC which disrupts the PV.

There’s so much potential going forward (can already see two windows..the 2nd half of December and then the 2nd half of January)..don’t let some silly computer projections distort that reality.

Uncertainty in the long range? No way...

[Phil]

First window doesn’t event begin for 11-13 days. Lol. As if models are going to have that locked down at the time of year wavelength climatology is changing rapidly? Yeah..no.

If anything u don’t want to be in the jackpot outside 5 days. It’s anecdotal, but trust me, I know that from experience.

[weatherwonder]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. I think you guys are letting unstable model projections dominate your emotions. This winter has as much potential as any other this century. I’m more bullish now than I was back in the fall.

The vast majority of La Niña winters have periods of +PNA. Even 1949/50 (which was the most -PNA winter in recorded history) had two bouts of +PNA.

In fact, the La Niña standing wave is *the reason* for the ongoing +PNA. First half of December is wonky for wave lengths. The relationship completely changes by the second half of December.

And, this +PNA is helping to destabilize the polar vortex. So when the pattern inevitably flips..that cold will be more easily dislodged. There’s a reason many epic La Niña winters have warm/zonal patterns preceding dramatic flips to cold..those warm/+PNAish patterns are excellent for WAFz thru EA/NPAC which disrupts the PV.

There’s so much potential going forward (can already see two windows..the 2nd half of December and then the 2nd half of January)..don’t let some silly computer projections distort that reality.

This!

[Deweydog]

We’re just a matter of hours away from increasing sun angles coming into view on the GFS.

[MossMan]

Looks like the PHIL model got an upgrade early this morning, we no longer have to compare it to the NAM! 

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

First window doesn’t event begin for 11-13 days. Lol. As if models are going to have that locked down at the time of year wavelength climatology is changing rapidly? Yeah..no.

If anything u don’t want to be in the jackpot outside 5 days. It’s anecdotal, but trust me, I know that from experience.

If a big winter event shows up on the models I don’t know if I’ll even watch until 2-3 days out. After last year’s rugpull, I’m going to have to see it to believe it.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like the PHIL model got an upgrade early this morning, we no longer have to compare it to the NAM! 

Homicidal road rage only colder and snowier!!!!!!!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No word on the EURO yet. Without Rob I am going to have to go look for myself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This El Nino sucks. 

[Deweydog]

Wretchrogression.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pdx made it into the 30s this morning. Wintry.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

First window doesn’t event begin for 11-13 days. Lol. As if models are going to have that locked down at the time of year wavelength climatology is changing rapidly? Yeah..no.

If anything u don’t want to be in the jackpot outside 5 days. It’s anecdotal, but trust me, I know that from experience.

Exactly.  I said last night, why were people expecting great things in the next 10 days (which would be through early the 13th) when all the experts said a change would happen in the middle of the month?  I am thinking the models will be more interesting in about a week or so.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

With this winter a wash, I might need to make fire miser my profile pic

[MossMan]

Are the forum archives from 2008 still floating around somewhere? 

[Blizzard777]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

With this winter a wash, I might need to make fire miser my profile pic

We can always call upon......Mother to iron things out for us ! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It would appear the models have taken a step back. Meh, they'll come around. Not as good, but plenty of time for improvement.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are the forum archives from 2008 still floating around somewhere? 

They’re on a shelf in the negative PDO section.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They’re on a shelf in the negative PDO section.

You have to use the Dewey Decimal System to find it.

[MossMan]

The sky has that pre snowstorm look about it...Only problem is it’s nearly 50 degrees but that’s just a minor detail.  

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The sky has that pre snowstorm look about it...Only problem is it’s nearly 50 degrees but that’s just a minor detail.  

Wet bulb!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice view out the weather window!