December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

Also wonder if there might be a transient +PNA interlude during the first week of January. I’m more interested in mid/late December and then the second half of January for West/PNW region.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM through Day 8 is even uglier Barf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also wonder if there might be a transient +PNA interlude during the first week of January. I’m more interested in mid/late December and then the second half of January for West/PNW region.

Not buying the Euro weeklies?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess no one even looked at the long range GFS? We re busy losing our lunch over the GEM?

[TacomaWaWx]

25 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Definitely a late bloomer....I was the poster child for bad male teenage drivers.  I got popped for 63 in a 35 (and I was still accelerating) 9 months after I got my license, and 3 months later my first car got totaled (t-boned, not my fault).  I got popped for 72 in a 55 when I was 18 and got rear ended 3 times within a 1 year period when I was 19 (all relatively minor). 20 was a banner year, got popped for eluding (had a huge head start but pulled over when he found me/caught up to me) and totaled another car (that one was my fault.)  Those 2 incidents chilled me out, and I went about 20 year before I got my last ticket (52 in a 35).

My 1/2 brother was much worse, he totaled at least 1 car a year for about the first 12 years of driving, about 1/2 his fault.  He also had several situations where not wearing a seat belt actually saved his life, so he refused to wear one.  He walked away from all but 1 (2 weeks in the hospital on that one).  The only way he could get insurance was on his dad's farm/business policy.

First time I got into a car crash I had been driving for 2 weeks and was 16. Blew a stop sign and t-boned someone only at like 15-20mph wasn’t too serious...my dad and the guy handled it without insurance and it didn’t go on my record. First time I got pulled over I was also 16...doing 75 in a 45...ticket was 800$. I’m very lucky my car wasn’t impounded...as I slowed down a bit when I saw the cop. Was doing 95 shortly before. Ended up having my dad help me with a lawyer and I had to pay 400$ for that...plus 80$ for a 10 hour online instruction video. Got another ticket for 24 in a school zone pulling out of my high school parking lot...only have 2 speeding tickets. Got in another accident when I was 18...motorcycle coming over a big steep hill out near port orchard and I knicked the back of his bike taking a left turn. Just didn’t see him he was going fast luckily he didn’t even fall off the bike and wasn’t injured at all. Got a reckless driving ticket that time too. Could have easily been more serious very lucky. Not a car driving story but I also when I was 19 and driving a moped I crashed and broke my leg and ankle...was a very serious injury. That really woke me up as I nearly rolled under a passing truck. Got a careless driving ticket that time! So yeah my car Insurance is f*cked for awhile. Have been a lot more careful and better about driving since. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Guess no one even looked at the long range GFS? We re busy losing our lunch over the GEM?

I did. It's nice. Let's see this at Day 5-6 instead of 13-14. C'MON!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm

[Omegaraptor]

Arctic air actually gets to southern BC at the end of the GFS, and the blocking pattern doesn't look outright incorrect.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Guess no one even looked at the long range GFS? We re busy losing our lunch over the GEM?

Post hour 384 plz.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not buying the Euro weeklies?

Upon further investigation the mean does artificially reduce the wavenumber a bit.

Tropical forcing/GWO is most favorable for PNW 2nd half of December, then the 2nd half of January.

February up in the air. Big potential but how much of it is realized? Should be good, barring a 1999 caliber +EPO.

[Phil]

I do think there’ll be more -EPO/cold than models currently advertise for the second half of December. I’m still betting on some lowland snowfall before Christmas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Upon further investigation the mean does artificially reduce the wavenumber a bit.

Tropical forcing/GWO is most favorable for PNW 2nd half of December, then the 2nd half of January.

February up in the air. Big potential but how much of it is realized? Should be good, barring a 1999 caliber +EPO.

It’s all about January to me. If we re not beating January 2017 for best January of the century then I am not going to be satisfied. We’ve had more than our share of

good Februaries recently. All that being said a top tier blast is welcome any time of the winter. But January is where my mind is focused.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s all about January to me. If we re not beating January 2017 for best January of the century then I am not going to be satisfied. We’ve had more than our share of

good Februaries recently. All that being said a top tier blast is welcome any time of the winter. But January is where my mind is focused.

For January, there’ll probably be a WHEM MJO excursion to open the month, which is transient but could be somewhat +PNA early in the month. Perhaps +EPO. Not long lasting, though. 

Just a timing thing, since the *ongoing* IPWP/Indo forcing is a cold west/warm east signal in January, but right now it’s the opposite.

And WHEM/W-IO forcing would be a cold west signal now, but it’s a warm west signal by New Years. Lol.

Eventually, constructive interference returns mid-January, and that’s a big league cold west signal at that time.

So there’s a window second half of this month for cold/-PNA, and/or -EPO, then again mid/late January.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 11. Hmmm, where's this ridge merger going

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

First time I got into a car crash I had been driving for 2 weeks and was 16. Blew a stop sign and t-boned someone only at like 15-20mph wasn’t too serious...my dad and the guy handled it without insurance and it didn’t go on my record. First time I got pulled over I was also 16...doing 75 in a 45...ticket was 800$. I’m very lucky my car wasn’t impounded...as I slowed down a bit when I saw the cop. Was doing 95 shortly before. Ended up having my dad help me with a lawyer and I had to pay 400$ for that...plus 80$ for a 10 hour online instruction video. Got another ticket for 24 in a school zone pulling out of my high school parking lot...only have 2 speeding tickets. Got in another accident when I was 18...motorcycle coming over a big steep hill out near port orchard and I knicked the back of his bike taking a left turn. Just didn’t see him he was going fast luckily he didn’t even fall off the bike and wasn’t injured at all. Got a reckless driving ticket that time too. Could have easily been more serious very lucky. Not a car driving story but I also when I was 19 and driving a moped I crashed and broke my leg and ankle...was a very serious injury. That really woke me up as I nearly rolled under a passing truck. Got a careless driving ticket that time! So yeah my car Insurance is f*cked for awhile. Have been a lot more careful and better about driving since. 

Good Lord.

You come across as a polite and thoughtful person on here... but in reality you have been a menace and danger to society!

[Meatyorologist]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have never had a moving violation or at fault accident, but I have only been driving for 18 years, hopefully that luck continues. I do my best to be careful. Been in a few fender benders before which were not my fault. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

Thanks for posting this. Yet again another strong signal for mid-December. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

And if course he seems to be talking about the cold heading to the east coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And if course he seems to be talking about the cold heading to the east coast.

Of course. He, Joe Bastard, and others have a huge east coast bias refusing to acknowledge if a pattern is lining up for the west with a torchy east.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And if course he seems to be talking about the cold heading to the east coast.

Of course! He's in Boston! PV disruptions increase the chances of cold air intrusions over North America. He's saying cold might go to the east coast for the same exact reason that we say it may go to the west coast. And given how weak the SE ridging appears to be at that range, both could end up being true.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No accidents knock on wood but I've had some tickets for speeding.  Worst one was 135 In a 50 zone but I actually talked my way out of it. I was on Chinook pass and there are some nice stretches of road with no side roads or houses. I literally told the cop I love to drive fast but have always been respectful to where I do it and he let me go. 

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

First time I got into a car crash I had been driving for 2 weeks and was 16. Blew a stop sign and t-boned someone only at like 15-20mph wasn’t too serious...my dad and the guy handled it without insurance and it didn’t go on my record. First time I got pulled over I was also 16...doing 75 in a 45...ticket was 800$. I’m very lucky my car wasn’t impounded...as I slowed down a bit when I saw the cop. Was doing 95 shortly before. Ended up having my dad help me with a lawyer and I had to pay 400$ for that...plus 80$ for a 10 hour online instruction video. Got another ticket for 24 in a school zone pulling out of my high school parking lot...only have 2 speeding tickets. Got in another accident when I was 18...motorcycle coming over a big steep hill out near port orchard and I knicked the back of his bike taking a left turn. Just didn’t see him he was going fast luckily he didn’t even fall off the bike and wasn’t injured at all. Got a reckless driving ticket that time too. Could have easily been more serious very lucky. Not a car driving story but I also when I was 19 and driving a moped I crashed and broke my leg and ankle...was a very serious injury. That really woke me up as I nearly rolled under a passing truck. Got a careless driving ticket that time! So yeah my car Insurance is f*cked for awhile. Have been a lot more careful and better about driving since. 

Speeder McBeaver over here. 95 in a 45? Wtf man were you planning on losing your virginity that night or something?

I did get pulled over driving on a suspended license awhile back. Let’s just say that didn’t end well for me.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Of course! He's in Boston! PV disruptions increase the chances of cold air intrusions over North America. He's saying cold might go to the east coast for the same exact reason that we say it may go to the west coast. And given how weak the SE ridging appears to be at that range, both could end up being true.

Certainly the east does look to get in on the cold for the next 10 days or so, but if he is talking about a major SSW event, it would make more sense in a Nina year for it to go west.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

38 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

First time I got into a car crash I had been driving for 2 weeks and was 16. Blew a stop sign and t-boned someone only at like 15-20mph wasn’t too serious...my dad and the guy handled it without insurance and it didn’t go on my record. First time I got pulled over I was also 16...doing 75 in a 45...ticket was 800$. I’m very lucky my car wasn’t impounded...as I slowed down a bit when I saw the cop. Was doing 95 shortly before. Ended up having my dad help me with a lawyer and I had to pay 400$ for that...plus 80$ for a 10 hour online instruction video. Got another ticket for 24 in a school zone pulling out of my high school parking lot...only have 2 speeding tickets. Got in another accident when I was 18...motorcycle coming over a big steep hill out near port orchard and I knicked the back of his bike taking a left turn. Just didn’t see him he was going fast luckily he didn’t even fall off the bike and wasn’t injured at all. Got a reckless driving ticket that time too. Could have easily been more serious very lucky. Not a car driving story but I also when I was 19 and driving a moped I crashed and broke my leg and ankle...was a very serious injury. That really woke me up as I nearly rolled under a passing truck. Got a careless driving ticket that time! So yeah my car Insurance is f*cked for awhile. Have been a lot more careful and better about driving since. 

Wow you really went five stars on GTA. I totaled my sisters car coming home from a party my senior year high school. I just took a corner to fast in the rain. Six months later, I got in a car accident on the freeway with my dad's mustang...not my fault but it needed extensive work. I then preceded to get a ticket for going 35 over on I-5 in Federal Way a month  later with five half gall's of Vitali in my back seats at two in the morning and was only 18. Only two months after that, I got a excessive noise/ squealing tires ticket or something bs. I definitely had that one coming. Finally, I got my last official ticket doing only ten over three months later in a small town. Three days later, I got into sort of a high speed chase leaving a party and ended up hitting 110mph on 167. I got away, but my friends in my other car did not sadly. I realized I was riding too hot and got a new car that only had 130hp so that would force me to slow down and it did. Insurance is essentially back to normal rates!! (knock on wood)

My lawyer got PAID for all these tickets.

[Meatyorologist]

There's plenty to be hopeful about in the long range. For a cold snap that "slides east", a 1044mb High right across the border containing 1000-500mb thickness values below 500dm shows pretty good potential. Patience.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

First time I got into a car crash I had been driving for 2 weeks and was 16. Blew a stop sign and t-boned someone only at like 15-20mph wasn’t too serious...my dad and the guy handled it without insurance and it didn’t go on my record. First time I got pulled over I was also 16...doing 75 in a 45...ticket was 800$. I’m very lucky my car wasn’t impounded...as I slowed down a bit when I saw the cop. Was doing 95 shortly before. Ended up having my dad help me with a lawyer and I had to pay 400$ for that...plus 80$ for a 10 hour online instruction video. Got another ticket for 24 in a school zone pulling out of my high school parking lot...only have 2 speeding tickets. Got in another accident when I was 18...motorcycle coming over a big steep hill out near port orchard and I knicked the back of his bike taking a left turn. Just didn’t see him he was going fast luckily he didn’t even fall off the bike and wasn’t injured at all. Got a reckless driving ticket that time too. Could have easily been more serious very lucky. Not a car driving story but I also when I was 19 and driving a moped I crashed and broke my leg and ankle...was a very serious injury. That really woke me up as I nearly rolled under a passing truck. Got a careless driving ticket that time! So yeah my car Insurance is f*cked for awhile. Have been a lot more careful and better about driving since. 

That is something...

I bumped into someone in a McDonalds parking lot in Enumclaw when I was 17. Felt horrible for a few weeks.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Speeder McBeaver over here. 95 in a 45? Wtf man were you planning on losing your virginity that night or something?

I did get pulled over driving on a suspended license awhile back. Let’s just say that didn’t end well for me.

 

I was being stupid that’s all there is too it! Nearly getting killed in my last accident and having to mend a broken leg for 6 months was a huge wake up call. 
 I was 16 or had just turned 17 when I did the 95 in a 45. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow you really went five stars on GTA. I totaled my sisters car coming home from a party my senior year high school. I just took a corner to fast in the rain. Six months later, I got in a car accident on the freeway with my dad's mustang...not my fault but it needed extensive work. I then preceded to get a ticket for going 35 over on I-5 in Federal Way a month  later with five half gall's of Vitali in my back seats at two in the morning and was only 18. Only two months after that, I got a excessive noise/ squealing tires ticket or something bs. I definitely had that one coming. Finally, I got my last official ticket doing only ten over three months later in a small town. Three days later, I got into sort of a high speed chase leaving a party and ended up hitting 110mph on 167. I got away, but my friends in my other car did not sadly. I realized I was riding too hot and got a new car that only had 130hp so that would force me to slow down and it did. Insurance is essentially back to normal rates!! (knock on wood)

My lawyer got PAID for all these tickets.

Lol some of us have some pretty crazy early driving days stories to say the least. I’m looking forward to some of these tickets come off my record so my insurance goes down. 

[Phil]

Haven’t had a major wreck (yet), but I got into a road rage incident on I-270 southbound several years back. Don’t like talking about this, but here it goes.

Was pouring rain in the middle of summer, and this dude is driving half the speed limit in the *passing lane*. I started tailgating him a bit, and he responds by break checking me. I try to pass him on the shoulder, but he blocks me intentionally..at this point we’re both doing ~ 80mph and drifting towards the concrete median..obviously testosterone had taken over. I was seeing red and, without thinking, basically pick maneuvered him, which sent him spiraling into highway traffic at a high rate of speed. My blood went cold as I saw his car get hit and spiral back into the concrete median and basically implode. The gravity of the situation hit me like a brick wall. Thought I had killed someone. I can’t really explain the feeling. But I can feel it as real today as I did then.

By some miracle, he was able to walk away. Thank god. I don’t know how. But I still break into a sweat thinking about it. Right now just typing about it. Basically just try to suppress the memory. My driving habits and value system changed completely after that, though. Really try it take it easy these days. 

[Requiem]

It’s really windy here still.

Anyways, I don’t drive yet. Should probably at the very least get my permit but I’ve had so much on my plate that I guess it just slid off somewhere.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Requiem said:

It’s really windy here still.

Anyways, I don’t drive yet. Should probably at the very least get my permit but I’ve had so much on my plate that I guess it just slid off somewhere.

Let my and others experiences be a lesson. Don’t speed, road rage or do any stupid sh*t. You’ll pay the price for a long time. Always be paying attention for yourself and for others. Really gotta be careful. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

It’s really windy here still.

Anyways, I don’t drive yet. Should probably at the very least get my permit but I’ve had so much on my plate that I guess it just slid off somewhere.

I didn't get my permit until my senior year of high school. My parents essentially made me get my license a couple weeks after graduation. I was in no hurry. 

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haven’t had a major wreck (yet), but I got into a road rage incident on I-270 southbound several years back. Don’t like talking about this, but here it goes.

Was pouring rain in the middle of summer, and this dude is driving half the speed limit in the *passing lane*. I started tailgating him a bit, and he responds by break checking me. I try to pass him on the shoulder, but he blocks me intentionally..at this point we’re both doing ~ 80mph and drifting towards the concrete median..obviously testosterone had taken over. I was seeing red and, without thinking, basically pick maneuvered him, which sent him spiraling into highway traffic at a high rate of speed. My blood went cold as I saw his car get hit and spiral back into the concrete median and basically implode. The gravity of the situation hit me like a brick wall. Thought I had killed someone. I can’t really explain the feeling. But I can feel it as real today as I did then.

By some miracle, he was able to walk away. Thank god. I don’t know how. But I still break into a sweat thinking about it. Right now just typing about it. Basically just try to suppress the memory. My driving habits and value system changed completely after that, though. Really try it take it easy these days. 

Lol. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Of course! He's in Boston! PV disruptions increase the chances of cold air intrusions over North America. He's saying cold might go to the east coast for the same exact reason that we say it may go to the west coast. And given how weak the SE ridging appears to be at that range, both could end up being true.

This type of PV disruption (Siberia/NPAC wave-1) tends to favor the west in La Niña, FWIW.