December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Kayla]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cards MAY not be activated until late January/early February.

Are they from 1989? Probably expired...

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cards MAY not be activated until late January/early February.

Typical La Niña BS. 
also glad your sons ok tim. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Are they from 1989? Probably expired...

Could be enough on those cards to snag a nice pair of Jordache acid wash jeans and Def Leppard Hysteria on cassette.

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 21, I'd say that's a heatwave!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cards MAY not be activated until late January/early February.

By then they will have gone out of business and the card will be null and void.  

[The Swamp]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

His fault... following too closely on 405 in Bellevue.

this is America, never admit fault

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... gets closer around day 10.

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

this is America, never admit fault

It was a rigged collision.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6-10 day analog:  December 1 2008 is an analog. 

 

And now for the 8-14 day outlook, early December once again is an analog,, but this time it is the 5th of December, 4 days later.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

6-10 day analog:  December 1 2008 is an analog. 

 

And now for the 8-14 day outlook, early December once again is an analog,, but this time it is the 5th of December, 4 days later.

 

So we are really looking at that Christmas time frame for things to get rocking and rolling!

[TT-SEA]

60 degrees in North Bend now... the high there on July 1st was 61.  

Sun angles matter.   Or not.

[TacomaWaWx]

52 here heatwave! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From the CPC hazardous weather outlook:

Detailed Summary

For Saturday December 05 - Wednesday December 09: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Thursday December 10 - Wednesday December 16: The positive PNA mid-level pattern during early December looks to transition by mid-December as models continue to favor the development of an amplified 500-hPa ridge extending from the Northeast Pacific into the Alaska Mainland. Downstream of this amplifying ridge, anomalous mid-level troughing is likely to settle across the western CONUS to increase the chances of potential hazardous cold. The 0z GEFS ensemble is faster in regards to this development, as it features a broad trough covering much of the western CONUS by day 9 (Nov 11), with mid-level height falls (10 to 20-dam) favored across the southwestern U.S. over a 48 hour period. The 0z ECMWF ensemble mean is relatively more delayed with this feature, while also favoring more anomalous mid-level troughing over the eastern CONUS than the GEFS early in the outlook period. Given this transitional pattern, there remains uncertainty in the timing and location of potential temperature and precipitation related hazards into mid-December.

There is continued model agreement which shows much of the anomalously warm temperatures across the western and north-central CONUS late in week-1 to transition to anomalous cold with surface high pressure expected to develop from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains early in the period. Compared to yesterday's guidance, reforecast tools suggest increased potential for hazardous cold pushing farther south and east over parts of the Great Basin, the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains into the middle portion of the outlook period. As a result, a slight risk of much below normal temperatures is expanded to include much of the western CONUS for Dec 11 to Dec 14 where tools suggest there is at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile and below freezing. With anomalous cold expected to be in place across the West, ensembles and reforecast guidance show increased precipitation signals to support the possibility of heavy snow over the higher elevations. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted over parts of the Central Rockies and the high Plains early in the week-2 period. Later in the period, guidance suggests the anomalous ridging over the Northeast Pacific to shift eastward over western North America, with mean anomalous troughing also pushing further eastward later in the outlook period. This aligns with the ECMWF reforecast tool which depicts increasing probabilities for minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile across much of the eastern CONUS later in week-2. However, this is much less supported by the GEFS reforecast tool and no temperature related hazards are posted but this pattern shift will continue to be monitored in the upcoming outlooks.
 

 

[FroYoBro]

Up to 54 here. Toasty!
 

Would probably be 57 degrees with summer sun angles. 

[Meatyorologist]

Already 60F here. Much toastier than anticipated, which is funny considering my low of 30F.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Already 60F here. Much toastier than anticipated, which is funny considering my low of 30F.

Lots of places with a ~30 degree diurnal swing. Not bad for this time of year. 

[Kayla]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So we are really looking at that Christmas time frame for things to get rocking and rolling!

You can sense your desperation that you really don't want things to get started before Christmas week. I'm sure some parking lot piles of snow will still be around when you get home. 

[Jesse]

Today is a slap in the face to inversion fans.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Reminds me of early December 2017 with the good dose of downslope.

White Christmas!!!

[Jesse]

39 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Up to 54 here. Toasty!
 

Would probably be 57 degrees with summer sun angles. 

It was actually colder here most nights in July than it was in my car sitting in the sun this afternoon. Food for thought...

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Sunny days in the winter are lovely.

Low sun angle, orange skies, lingering light in the evening. It sucks that fun winter weather isn't exactly consistent, but being this far north makes up for it.

Absolutely. Beautiful weather everywhere today, and warm to top it off. We'll get the goods later, so best to enjoy the sun and warmth now.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

White Christmas!!!

And a warning shot for the January to end all Januaries.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Absolutely. Beautiful weather everywhere today, and warm to top it off. We'll get the goods later, so best to enjoy the sun and warmth now.

Looking at visible satellite, the only beautiful weather I could spot is in central Oregon and the eastern Columbia basin.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

27 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

From the CPC hazardous weather outlook:

Detailed Summary

For Saturday December 05 - Wednesday December 09: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Thursday December 10 - Wednesday December 16: The positive PNA mid-level pattern during early December looks to transition by mid-December as models continue to favor the development of an amplified 500-hPa ridge extending from the Northeast Pacific into the Alaska Mainland. Downstream of this amplifying ridge, anomalous mid-level troughing is likely to settle across the western CONUS to increase the chances of potential hazardous cold. The 0z GEFS ensemble is faster in regards to this development, as it features a broad trough covering much of the western CONUS by day 9 (Nov 11), with mid-level height falls (10 to 20-dam) favored across the southwestern U.S. over a 48 hour period. The 0z ECMWF ensemble mean is relatively more delayed with this feature, while also favoring more anomalous mid-level troughing over the eastern CONUS than the GEFS early in the outlook period. Given this transitional pattern, there remains uncertainty in the timing and location of potential temperature and precipitation related hazards into mid-December.

There is continued model agreement which shows much of the anomalously warm temperatures across the western and north-central CONUS late in week-1 to transition to anomalous cold with surface high pressure expected to develop from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains early in the period. Compared to yesterday's guidance, reforecast tools suggest increased potential for hazardous cold pushing farther south and east over parts of the Great Basin, the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains into the middle portion of the outlook period. As a result, a slight risk of much below normal temperatures is expanded to include much of the western CONUS for Dec 11 to Dec 14 where tools suggest there is at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile and below freezing. With anomalous cold expected to be in place across the West, ensembles and reforecast guidance show increased precipitation signals to support the possibility of heavy snow over the higher elevations. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted over parts of the Central Rockies and the high Plains early in the week-2 period. Later in the period, guidance suggests the anomalous ridging over the Northeast Pacific to shift eastward over western North America, with mean anomalous troughing also pushing further eastward later in the outlook period. This aligns with the ECMWF reforecast tool which depicts increasing probabilities for minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile across much of the eastern CONUS later in week-2. However, this is much less supported by the GEFS reforecast tool and no temperature related hazards are posted but this pattern shift will continue to be monitored in the upcoming outlooks.
 

 

Did the morning runs bear this out?

[Jesse]

East wind seems to be backing off a little here. Hoping tonight manages to decouple.

Not a fan of downsloping winds in the winter. They eat snow and kill any chance for fog or frost.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and absolutely beautiful, sunny skies.

[Deweydog]

Colder days ahead!

[TT-SEA]

I dislike cold, rainy, windy days in the summer... like we had in late June and early July.    

But someone on here was really upset about any complaining back then.    Really, really upset!    Its fine to complain when he deems it worthy though.   

[Omegaraptor]

Rather have warm sun than warm rain.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Crazy day... my son was in a bad accident last night but he is OK.   Dealing with insurance all morning.  

I will mention that today is just about as warm as July 1st here.     

Sorry to hear about your son Tim. Glad he’s ok and hope everyone involved is ok as well. 

[Cloud]

Really warm day. It’s 59 here imby and Renton may have hit 60. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A lot more western troughing on the druncle so far. Baby steps.

[Jesse]

Looks like we topped out at 54 with full sunshine and gusty east winds here. Fairly typical mid summer day. Down to 53 now.

[Deweydog]

Wonder if Jim made it out of the 20’s today?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Wonder if Jim made it out of the 20’s today?

I was wondering that too.    Probably not.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Sorry to hear about your son Tim. Glad he’s ok and hope everyone involved is ok as well. 

Yes... thankfully no injuries involved.   Hopefully its a lesson that sticks with him for the rest of his life.   He was pretty shaken up.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... thankfully no injuries involved.   Hopefully its a lesson that sticks with him for the rest of his life.   He was pretty shaken up.  

Glad he is ok and I hope y'all are doing as well as you can be considering the circumstances.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sadly the druncle goes to shitt after that.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... thankfully no injuries involved.   Hopefully its a lesson that sticks with him for the rest of his life.   He was pretty shaken up.  

RIP Subaru?