MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 From no hope to a warning shot to winter goodness that lasted through the end of the month 2018! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: Was just going through the first few days of February 2018...Phil was warning us about the SSW and to not trust the models that looked terrible, I was NOT on board and was whining about the non-stop rain, drizzle, Tim had enough and went wine tasting in Eastern Wa, and it seemed the GEM was the first model to start seeing some changes... I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. Actually it seemed that you were slightly more optimistic than me! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 My birthday is on Jan 20th. We've got a lot of work to do in the next 15 days. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like I’ve not missed much. Down to 43F and mostly clear. Stars are pretty. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, dolt said: My birthday is on Jan 20th. We've got a lot of work to do in the next 15 days. I have a hunch the south valley will not be getting a wine dine ‘69 from Mother Nature this year. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Right now 17 years ago it was getting a little chilly on the east side. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I just saw the EPS Day 10-15. More improvements. We're getting there one baby step at a time! 6z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, dolt said: To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday. It hasn't on mine either...however my birthday is in May tho 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 This winter’s coldest temp is still from all the way back in Oct before my birthday. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 So my call for next... is still in play. Huh, funny how that works! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, dolt said: To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday. These days I have a better chance of snow on my birthday on August 14th. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2021, the year of.... next. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 High Wind Warning for Bellingham San Juan County-Western Whatcom County- Including the cities of Friday Harbor and Bellingham 226 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...San Juan County and Western Whatcom County. * WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Wind Advisory for Western Skagit County Western Skagit County- Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, and Burlington 226 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Western Skagit County. * WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs) The promising trend continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Day 10 (Past 4 runs) Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: I just saw the EPS Day 10-15. More improvements. We're getting there one baby step at a time! 6z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes Check out where the longitude of the NPAC ridge axis finishes at on the 00z EPS. Pretty much in the sweet spot no? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Check out where the longitude of the NPAC ridge axis finishes at on the 00z EPS. Pretty much in the sweet spot no? Yup, just need better amplification/ridge bridge... It's coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Day 11 (Past 4 runs) .... Well, that sure changed quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Day 12 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Day 13 (Past 4 runs) Block pivoting and retrograding again, but how far west unsure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like not very.... need to see out to Day 14 to be more certain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z GEFS Day 8-16. More improvements. Ridge/evolving block retrogrades slowly but surely to the 'sweet spot' with favorable tilt and quite a strong signal that far out. Also noted after Day 6 a huge chunk of bitter air in the high Arctic slides south into central Canada. Nice to see the Vodka on our side of the pole. Once that trough kicks out of the eastern US heights will rise/ridge build over the southeast US and we'll be set. It is remarkable how the GEFS progression is in near lock-step mirror both the GFS Ext. ENS and Euro Weeklies. Depending on how soon the Aleutian low weakens and NPAC jet retracts it is possible sharper retrogression occurs even sooner. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Sexy rexy! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Yup, just need better amplification/ridge bridge... It's coming. Yeah the fact it’s an ensemble mean probably dampens signal for amplification. But it’s a notable shift westward + more amplified from 12z. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sexy rexy! Is Andrew on board? 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Day 6-16 850s. Nice to see some cold on our side for once. This is just the beginning. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Is Andrew on board? Nope 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nope Even with timing moving ahead with the ridge developing at Day 6.5 to 7 and initial retrogression Day 8 to 8.5? I'm guessing you want to see a stronger signal from the EPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 For the first time, we have a cluster of legitimately tricked-out EPS solutions popping up in the D13-15 range (with regards to blocking + retrogression into GOA/NPAC). Sis is taking 1st shift driving so I’ve literally had nothing to do but peruse model data and strat/tropical obs from JMA. Really digging into stuff for the first time in several days, haha. ..and for what little it’s worth, I’m as “on board” as I’ve ever been. If I lived out there I’d be feeling pretty optimistic right now. Not just for the second half of winter, but also for the prospects of a cool (if not downright cold) spring. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Even with timing moving ahead with the ridge developing at Day 6.5 to 7 and initial retrogression Day 8 to 8.5? I'm guessing you want to see a stronger signal from the EPS. I would like to see a full retrogression and Western trough signal. We have plenty of Western ridges that don't end up being anything exciting other than some fog. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I would like to see a full retrogression and Western trough signal. We have plenty of Western ridges that don't end up being anything exciting other than some fog. You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away? The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation. 5 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Phil said: You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away? The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation. Good point. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 What’s interesting about this SSW is the prolonged nature of the wave-1 (displacement) at the projected amplitude. The vortex itself actually remains intact while displaced well off the pole. There’s a LR signal for a follow-up wave attack w/ a more favorable structure for a wave-2 response @ 10mb. If that’s the progression, then it’d be one of the most dynamically interesting events in the satellite era. But even with the displacement, u-wind at/below the tropopause is very weak, so we’re not waiting for the wind reversal to downwell into the troposphere..the blocking has developed concurrently with the stratwarm. If we had a +NAO right now, then we would probably have issues. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 hours ago, dolt said: To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday. If it makes you feel better, it has never snowed on a year where TWL had a birthday. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 SEA has had 5 inches of rain just since Christmas Day and almost 7 inches of rain in the last 2 weeks. Not too surprising that the jet will probably be slowing down. In the meantime... racing towards the entire monthly average for January in the first week. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. Most of us know you embrace the role of curmudgeon. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 A brief break this morning in this very gloomy period... 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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