January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The complete rest of his tweet. 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346499533904236545?s=20

Seems pretty black and white to me...

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You never post ensembles for me anymore. 

I sorry Andrew

 

Looks like some members below -5c at the end there!

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You are chock full of wisdom.

Thanks. Sometimes we all need to be reminded of weenie fundamentals.

[Cloud]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Seems pretty black and white to me...

It really is, I agree. But it seems like the potential for a delay is there. In a nutshell, trying to understand the SSW is gonna drive one crazy.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Low solar.

It just means the SSW is having a major impact. The "reversal" in the stratosphere is to be expected.

Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

It really is, I agree. But it seems like the potential for a delay is there. In a nutshell, trying to understand the SSW is gonna drive one crazy.

I was being a smart a** about your post.

I have no clue as to what that would mean for us and prospects of an Arctic front moving over my house in the next 60 days.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Just looked at my stats and the rain event on January 2nd was the biggest daily rainfall in January in 12 years. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I was being a smart a** about your post.

I have no clue as to what that would mean for us and prospects of an Arctic front moving over my house in the next 60 days.  

Oh , I just realized exactly what you meant now. I didn't see it! So I'm using a google chrome extension that allows my browser to be in dark mode. hahaha 

[luminen]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact.

I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year.

Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 3.31” of rain this month...20.32” since October 1st. Been plenty wet...atleast hoping for some lower snow levels at some point. we have plenty of time to score some snow down here in Tacoma before winter winds down. If not I’m hoping to be able to head up to orcas island and see some snow at the top of Mt.Constitution sometime late this month or next month. Over the years I’ve been up there late January through March there’s usually some snow up there...need some atleast 1000’ snow levels soon! 

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, luminen said:

I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year.

Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course.

What on gods (depressingly) green earth are you ever even talking about?

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, luminen said:

I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year.

Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course.

I wouldn't go that far. It's a potential, but who the knows at this point. 

Remember, he may very well be referring to an East coast delay. 

[Jesse]

At least PDX scored a freeze plus ten this morning.

[SalemDuck]

Big improvement on the GEFS

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Big improvement on the GEFS

Looks pretty similar to the op:

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Big improvement on the GEFS

Not even sure how this can be called an improvement lol. Ninas usually are better in the second half...hopefully that proves true this winter as well. So far we’ve just had a trace of snowfall here in Tacoma on the 21st. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Big improvement on the GEFS

Yup

 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not even sure how this can be called an improvement lol. Ninas usually are better in the second half...hopefully that proves true this winter as well. So far we’ve just had a trace of snowfall here in Tacoma on the 21st. 

It is an improvement if you look at the trend in relation to the current pattern. We want the jet to retract and the AL to go away. 

Baby steps I guess 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It is an improvement if you look at the trend in relation to the current pattern. We want the jet to retract and the AL to go away. 

Baby steps I guess 

I understand that it’s better than the previous run and all it’s just still pretty bleak. At this point I’d be happy if we got some 1000’ snow levels late this month or next month. Haven’t given up on this winter yet still lots of time for it to snow down in the lowlands. 

[Cloud]

Looks like the majority of Europe is going into the freezer mid month. Possibly feeling the effect of the SSW. 

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact.

Ah, see that now. He's pretty vague on the ramifications, though.

I saw "reversal" and thought it was referring to the wind reversal that naturally occurs: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/SSW-identified-from-the-wind-reversal-and-wind-tendency-definitions_tbl1_315851065

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This straw-grasping is like the 6-10 Giants relying on the 7-9 Washington FT to lose to an Eagles coach (who gives up and tanks during the game) in order to get into the playoffs at this point.

[SalemDuck]

GEFS day 16. I’m sure someone will still say this is terrible and winter is cancelled.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GEFS day 16. I’m sure someone will still say this is terrible and winter is cancelled.

Ways out, but at least good to see LR ensembles trending in the right direction.

And I don't care what anyone says, the CMC looks promising at day 10.

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I understand that it’s better than the previous run and all it’s just still pretty bleak. At this point I’d be happy if we got some 1000’ snow levels late this month or next month. Haven’t given up on this winter yet still lots of time for it to snow down in the lowlands. 

I gotta say, this got that 2018 feel to it where everything feels bleak until the models completely flipped. In the mean time, I will remain optimistic. 

[SalemDuck]

GEPS day 16. On the same page as the GEFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GEPS day 16. On the same page as the GEFS.

Seasonably cool. Better than the current pattern at least.

[MossMan]

I’m up to February 7th 2018 with that thread review...The EPS looked terrible and Matt mowed! 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ways out, but at least good to see LR ensembles trending in the right direction.

And I don't care what anyone says, the CMC looks promising at day 10.

Euro, not so much.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I bet NAM already picked up the SSW

[bainbridgekid]

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

And the funny thing was it showed my area as getting the least amount of snow...

[Winterdog]

At least the 12Z GFS is a warm outlier on the ensembles with a few members dropping below -10.  It's hard to get excited about ridging that might move to the sweet spot 15 days out.  I guess any change is a good change at this point.  44 after a low of 40.  2.77" so far this year.  

[Winterdog]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And the funny thing was it showed my area as getting the least amount of snow...

But it looks like the total it predicted was fairly close for you.  It showed me at around 12" but I ended up with around 6"

edit:  I looked again.  You had at least 12" I think didn't you?  It showed you with around 6" 

[Omegaraptor]

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

Sad time 

[Dave]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

[jakerepp]

14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

Looks like it called for 11'' for me.

I got 3 or 4. Nice event, but a bit of a let down.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro, not so much.

EPS is better and is showing signs of retrogression at hour 300.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Looks like it called for 11'' for me.

I got 3 or 4. Nice event, but a bit of a let down.

I will have to check on Portland... not sure if the 22.8 inches verified there.    Also possible that Troutdale did end up with 31.8 inches as shown.