Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 There are differences that I both like and don't like so far on this run as more frames come out. Watching... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Who had this avatar on fox blog years ago Josh the Snowman! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I'm sorry Josh. I recently had some friends hurt me too, and they won't apologize. It sucks. So I feel your pain. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: There are differences that I both like and don't like so far on this run as more frames come out. Watching... One of the larger swings you’ll see inside 108hrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, MWG said: No, I don't. I'm sorry but now this is just going to almost accusing me to be someone else. Also, I'm a she but I guess it doesn't matter since it looks like some have made up their mind. 1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said: Just talked to Josh aka as “Kevin Martin”. He said the only way he’ll make up a name and come back is for at least three of you to apologize to him. He’s hurting right now. We can see that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Blatantly stolen from Facebook, but taken here in Leavenworth Jesus that's dope. It is now my phone's wallpaper. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Phil said: One of the larger swings you’ll see inside 108hrs. Lots of upstream implications w/ regards to SE Asia right now as the energy that forms the eventual block is as of right now ejecting out of the continent and into that screaming jet. I'd expect a lot of volatility within the next 48 hours. By no means is anything beyond 72 hours set in stone. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 As expected, block still forms unfazed, with the pattern progression delayed by six hours, give or take. This time tilt is more northerly and that Kona low isn't being sucked up as it amplifies. This could be better in the realistic LR. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I just told him he’s a legend in his own time and there’s a page of you guys talking about him. He said he can’t in to look since he’s still banned but that you guys need to “get a life”. Just passing it on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Late January? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Mega block on this run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Blocking catches up w/ the 18z in regards to timing. Much better tilt. Kona low staying put. This could be a much better run in the 180-240 hour timeframe than the 18z. At the very least, it may not have to rely on a zany, hooking insanely amplified west-of-ideal ridge. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: As expected, block still forms unfazed, with the pattern progression delayed by six hours, give or take. This time tilt is more northerly and that Kona low isn't being sucked up as it amplifies. This could be better in the realistic LR. I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 If anything this run looks better so far. Time will tell and I’m not holding my breath to anything that looks remotely like the 18z. I’ll take half that run tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6.5 Would love to see 560's in Nova Scotia though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Oh sh@t there’s Josh. Thought you were banned. From what you just told me legend lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 A little warmer so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical. With the kind of block it's spitting out now, it will make things happen. Seems to have better potential than the 18z, which IMO the OP was in the 95th percentile of potential solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 06z be radically different as well. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Things played out a little differently this day last year. Widespread this to come on the 0z GFS: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Absolutely textbook block and tilt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Oh sh@t there’s Josh. Thought you were banned. From what you just told me legend lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I actually think this will end up much warmer w/ the slower NPAC response. But who knows with the goofus. This model sucks so bad its comical. Then again the -NAM signal is stronger even though the TPV is farther NE. Maybe that’ll compensate? Just rambling here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Like the GOA and negative NAO block more this run but time will tell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Absolutely textbook block and tilt. Looks pretty good. I bet Milwaukie/Gladstone/OC areas get only a trace though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: With the kind of block it's spitting out now, it will make things happen. Seems to have better potential than the 18z, which IMO the OP was in the 95th percentile of potential solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 06z be radically different as well. You may very well be correct. I didn’t like the early changes but there’s so much going in it’s overwhelming my brain. Who knows. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 It is a touch milder through hour 180. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Your face is my case!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I'll take this any Winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Gonna go backdoor here huh. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Snow in San Fransicso? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Even with the fluctuations, this is still a pretty pattern. Reinforcing block popping up behind it, maybe a little closer than the 18z. Wicked tilt to it. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Drier. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 8.5 Nice trough connected/phasing with the PV lobe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 That's better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 9'er Joe Biden: "If you don't like this run, you ain't black." A little harmless political humor. You're welcome. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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