MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, umadbro said: D**n This outage length has now rivaled the big wet snow outage that happened in November 2006 which was also 3 days. The longest that I experienced was 5 days in the early 80’s. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 49 minutes ago, MossMan said: Power update...Still no power. We were only out for 20 hours. I hope your back on soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 00z running... It looks as if Pivotal got a nice update, increasing their hour increments to ever 3 hours for the first 240, then every 6 after 240. This is double the previous rate. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 00z running... It looks as if Pivotal got a nice update, increasing their hour increments to ever 3 hours for the first 240, then every 6 after 240. This is double the previous rate. We can post EVEN more frames now! Lol. Did you want to post the 00z GFS? or? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: We can post EVEN more frames now! Lol. Did you want to post the 00z GFS? or? I'm good, but I can get the 06z tonight. I noticed you covered it for me last night, I appreciate it. I was in the middle of school work. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: I'm good, but I can get the 06z tonight. I noticed you covered it for me last night, I appreciate it. I was in the middle of school work. Sounds good. I can't do the night shift tonight unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Blizzard on Mt. Washington tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Go away, cutoff low... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Major issues with cutoff low on this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Forgot to post it this morning... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Major issues with cutoff low on this run... 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Forgot to post it this morning... Now that's some daily fuzz I can appreciate!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Forgot to post it this morning... Makes it seem like this event will be a quick-hitter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 That tiny feature throws away the first 160 hours of the run. I though it had abandoned it on the 12z today, but I guess I was wrong. No other model has it. Apparently it fits into the GFS's bias, as well. I'm looking at the secondary block for anything impactful, anyways. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Cutoff doesn't allow for the ridge merger and retrogression. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The downstream implications of that cutoff low are enormous. Eastmost lobe of heights doesn't de-amplify as much due to increased SW'lies from the cutoff, ergo adjusting flow in Canada to kick out first batch of cold. After that it's a mixed bag, but generally crippled. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 February 1st Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Much more narrow ridge around hour 120, more like the gem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: February 1st I'm not allowed to say a word about the date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 This run was toast at Day 3.5 ... Hopefully it's nothing. We'll know in 1 hour 37 minutes when the EURO starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The Euro weeklies failed entirely to pick up on this last month. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I'm not allowed to say a word about the date. You holding out on us again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Much more narrow ridge around hour 120, more like the gem GEM was a good run. Rob says this run is toast?! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 That's hilarious, the same cutoff low that ruins the pattern is slooowly gliding offshore. It's like it's staring us down. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 One low did THAT to our cold supply... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Oh yikes. Just looked. Total disaster. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Welp, time to go play some Cyberpunk. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Secondary block might actually be in a more favorable position, though... We'll see. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Welp, time to go play some Cyberpunk. Maybe next year Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Maybe next year Maybe 2077 3 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The details are different (not by a lot) the 500mb pattern looks pretty similar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 How disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 At the very least, it's a known bias of the GFS to not cut off lows. And again, no other model shows this feature. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 500mb configuration matters, but don’t forget about the surface details. That’s where the weather happens. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Anyone wanna make a wager that the models put the rug back where it belongs?? Trying to buy the dip here fellas 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 500mb configuration matters, but don’t forget about the surface details. That’s where the weather happens. Don’t forgot we still have a lot of time for those details to change! the ridge merges across the pole. That may be good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Anyone wanna make a wager that the models put the rug back where it belongs?? Trying to buy the dip here fellas Wouldn’t surprise me at all. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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