Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, Runtmc said: Yeah, I mean pretty easy to cherry pick annoyances on this forum. For some, it might be a guy that downvotes profusely. For others, it’s a guy who touts model volatility during a pattern change as a groundbreaking, personal discovery and then reminds everyone ad nausea that he did just that. Or posts puppy photos. Or aligns themselves with the most obvious possible model solutions and shows up when they verify to remind everyone that he knew better in a veiled arrogance. It’s what makes this place great! WRONG, it's just me who's the problem here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The GFS is way too volatile to make a judgment on the flattening ridge. No one should like it, but wanna see what the EC says about this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: I think part of it is related to the UW WRF. Bias towards their own local model. True, I have noticed that a lot. It has also caused botched snow forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Runtmc said: Yeah, I mean pretty easy to cherry pick annoyances on this forum. For some, it might be a guy that downvotes profusely. For others, it’s a guy who touts model volatility during a pattern change as a groundbreaking, personal discovery and then reminds everyone ad nausea that he did just that. Or posts puppy photos. Or aligns themselves with the most obvious possible model solutions and shows up when they verify to remind everyone that he knew better in a veiled arrogance. It’s what makes this place great! Puppies are NEVER annoying! 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: The GFS is way too volatile to make a judgment on the flattening ridge. No one should like it, but wanna see what the EC says about this. false, this is consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Great trends for our friend at Lake Tahoe. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: The GFS is way too volatile to make a judgment on the flattening ridge. No one should like it, but wanna see what the EC says about this. Euro will be telling . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Believable range still safe from goodies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: I see. So they are just chunks of the polar vortex that exist with or without an SSW. Although of course an SSW would make them a lot more common since they destabilize the PV. Yeah, picture them like cow utters. Tendrils that exist below the main stratospheric vortex which attach/couple to it. Following a SSW they are “untethered” and can be forced southward into the middle latitudes more easily. The TPVs contain the coldest air in the troposphere and are associated with all of the big league CONUS arctic blasts. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Plenty of time for that trough to shift east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Yeah, picture them like cow utters. Tendrils that exist below the main stratospheric vortex which attach/couple to it. Following a SSW they are “untethered” and can be forced southward into the middle latitudes more easily. The TPVs contain the coldest air in the troposphere and are associated with all of the big league CONUS arctic blasts. Utters untethered. I think I remember seeing a lot of adds for that one on VHS back in the day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 dont hate where the gem ends up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Don’t give up on this run yet. Chris already did. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Utters untethered. I think I remember seeing a lot of adds for that one on VHS back in the day. Haha. Here’s a little gif I just made of 00z GFS. Two TPVs, note how they’re wandering about in the absence of a strong PV aloft, dying and reforming, sensitive to even the slightest WAF. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Chris already did. Yes I did, after seeing day 4 (ie. believable range). Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, Phil said: Don’t give up on this run yet. Hopefully some hr384 goofus magic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, ShawniganLake said: Hopefully some hr384 goofus magic That’s the spirit. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: Haha. Here’s a little gif I just made of 00z GFS. Two TPVs, note how they’re wandering about in the absence of a strong PV aloft, dying and reforming, sensitive to even the slightest WAF. Wasn't expecting it to die. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Okay I’m giving up on this run now. Hope that’s okay. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I’ve had about enough of that Liberty Mutual Xmas commercial from 1990. Just seems mean at this point. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 We've even got the old 4 corners high to contend with on this run! This run is as messed up as any so far. It ain't gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Was hopeful when I saw there was over 40 posts in the time that I was in the shower...What a letdown. Anyway it’s cloudy and 42 degrees. Yay. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 It's not over yet guys. We still have the GEFS, EMCWF, and the EPS. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Was hopeful when I saw there was over 40 posts in the time that I was in the shower...What a letdown. Anyway it’s cloudy and 42 degrees. Yay. I'd feel worse if I thought it had any chance of verifying. 41 after a high of 45 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The GFS is full of s**t. That’s my call. 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Was hopeful when I saw there was over 40 posts in the time that I was in the shower...What a letdown. Anyway it’s cloudy and 42 degrees. Yay. Pretty bad run again! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 No coincidence that Europe remains chilly from start to finish... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, Jesse said: Utters untethered. I think I remember seeing a lot of adds for that one on VHS back in the day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty bad run again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 GEFS essentially in lock step with the op through 252 hours. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: GEFS essentially in lock step with the op through 252 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I wish that November, December or January would produce a snow event. I hate waiting till February to see some action 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I wish that November, December or January would produce a snow event. I hate waiting till February to see some action Which February? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The SSW talk is getting old. It takes so many variables to fall into place to get snow around here. Until we get consistency across models within 120 hours there's not much to get excited about. Hope February delivers the goods! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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