Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Much more cold air in BC. You beat me to it! YES! Putin is such a nice guy sharing like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: One “consistent” theme at the moment is that these troughs seem to universally hit a -6c barrier. Good observation. Scanning 850s through Day 11 and that's pretty much what I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This run is close. We have a nice sharp trough but it's a hair too far west and moderates too much. Then we get cold air close by but nothing to drive it south and so it spills over the Rockies. Precipitation chances are there too. It was pretty close to the 18z actually. Just some minor differences to make it not as snowy. Still ends up alright in the snow map department for Western WA, but some of this falls with very questionable temperatures. Anyways, I feel like we have some pieces back on the board but they aren't fitting just right yet. See how that develops over the course of this week. This snow map seems to be so much higher than the other one posted through 240 hours. These GFS snow maps are pretty comical. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I’m back on the Canadian train 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 This run shows quite a bit of snow up here next week. Still a long ways off though. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: This snow map seems to be so much higher than the other one posted through 240 hours. These GFS snow maps are pretty comical. Seriously? If this pattern plays out you are going to see snow and perhaps a significant amount. You should be overjoyed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This run is close. We have a nice sharp trough but it's a hair too far west and moderates too much. Then we get cold air close by but nothing to drive it south and so it spills over the Rockies. Precipitation chances are there too. It was pretty close to the 18z actually. Just some minor differences to make it not as snowy. Still ends up alright in the snow map department for Western WA, but some of this falls with very questionable temperatures. Anyways, I feel like we have some pieces back on the board but they aren't fitting just right yet. See how that develops over the course of this week. I’m still in the purple! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Timmy said: I’m back on the Canadian train Solid overrunning event next Sunday on the GEM. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Spokane has only seen 4 cooler than normal days in the last 64. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: I’m back on the Canadian train Yeah the GEM is MUCH better with the 2nd shortwave sliding down BC coast connected far better to the arctic air source in BC/AB. Day 6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 GEM Day 7 Now that's not bad! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I'm a bit giddy actually to see the EURO tonight. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Seriously? If this pattern plays out you are going to see snow and perhaps a significant amount. You should be overjoyed. Yeah... the GFS snow maps are inconsistent. The WB version always seems to look overstated. Compare it to the high resolution GFS snowfall map that was posted from Pivotal. And I am not sold on getting lots of snow here yet. The ECMWF showed a couple inches and then the pattern starts warming after day 10 per the EPS. The pattern just does not look like a big snow maker here to me. Could change. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Here is what I mean Rob... this is for the same period and the Pivotal map looks more realistic to me. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Here is what I mean Rob... this for the same period and the Pivotal map looks more realistic to me. I’m in the dark blue! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I’m in the dark blue! Me too!!! Might even be purple!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Me too!!! Might even be purple!!! Are you that far east? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 GEFS stopped on pivotal just before Day 5. Past 4 runs shows the ridge is trending stronger exactly like the Op run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Are you that far east? Not the purple within the white but the narrow ribbon of purplish blue between the dark blue and the hot pink. At any rate, I’m kicking myself for not letting my wife buy me that shovel. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Here is what I mean Rob... this is for the same period and the Pivotal map looks more realistic to me. Sure, I get that, but you're still going to see snow. Snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: GEFS stopped on pivotal just before Day 5. Past 4 runs shows the ridge is trending stronger exactly like the Op run. Great to hear to have ensemble support! I feel like the 0z runs always come through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Climate change is a constant. It has never ceased to change since the planet formed. The whole man is causing it theme is highly flawed. Very high chance the planet would be warming right now even if man wasn't here. I'll be very interested to see if the solar grand minimum reverses the trend though. There is probably a lag effect with this stuff. We are causing climate change. Question is how much? We don’t have the answer to that. With each new study that increases the degree of Holocene climate variability, the more likely it is climate sensitivity is state dependent. We’re probably responsible for 30-50% of the post WW-II warming, is my guesstimate. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Sure, I get that, but you're still going to see snow. Snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww! Yes... that will likely happen. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Tim is NOT on board! 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 GEFS Past 4 runs just before Day 5 shows the ridge trending stronger and also ridge bridge. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Direct tv channel 535!! Airplane 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Direct tv channel 535!! Airplane 2 On it! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: GEFS Past 4 runs just before Day 5 shows the ridge trending stronger and also ridge bridge. Its stuck at 117 hours on WB. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim is NOT on board! It depends on what we are talking about. I am not too excited if it ends up snowing here and nowhere else. Its way more fun when everyone is on the action. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Satisfying to watch Baffin Island roast after 5+ years in the freezer. They have more kold karma to pay off than the rest of the northern hemisphere combined. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It depends on what we are talking about. I am not too excited if it ends up snowing here and nowhere else. Its way more fun when everyone is on the action. I would prefer that too, but it is probably not happening. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Phil said: He’s referring to the surface stations that measure said warming. Which is what your linked article is referring to. And, for the sake of accuracy, the earth has been cooling since July, as it does every year. It’s also been cooling for the last 6,500 years. And the last 5+ million years. And the last billion years. Lol. Depends on which timescale you choose! Not south of the equator! 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Climate change debates are typically a springtime exercise around here. #notagoodsign 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Tim steals candies from little kids at the mall. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Stratosphere started torching again today right on schedule. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Tim steals candies from little kids at the mall. That and he is now trying to steal any hope Jim has for some goodies soon, referenced by his immediate replies to Jim earlier today. #timlecturesaresopredictable 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Well hopefully things change and we can get snow down in the lowlands. Should be good enough for snow up at orcas island up at the higher elevations so I’m happy about that. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Well hopefully things change and we can get snow down in the lowlands. Should be good enough for snow up at orcas island up at the higher elevations so I’m happy about that. I'm hoping for an arctic outbreak... it seems to be quite allergic to crossing the border and spill into W. WA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: Tim steals candies from little kids at the mall. He’s been stealing Arctic blasts from online weather weenies since the early 2000’s! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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