January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

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Day 5

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Day 6

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Day 7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very obvious this will be another carrot for us. 

[wxmet]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Initial trough not digging as well on D6 compared to 12z. Base of ridge just a notch further east. 

The GOA ridge is stronger though. This could just be a timing issue. Need to see the rest of the run play out.

[umadbro]

Weenie city. Good grief. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[wxmet]

Ridge is a bit too far east. Could be a trend but also might not be.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like all systems are go on the day 8 ECMWF.  The big three models have come into almost perfect agreement, although the ECMWF may be a tad faster with the good stuff.  Right now the best guess seems to be an initial shot of cool continental air around day 5 or 6 and the good stuff arriving around day 9 or so.

How bout that 12z run today on the GFS!  498 thickness over SEA!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Ridge is a bit too far east. Could be a trend but also might not be.

It's going to dig back.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Yeah...it looks like the GEM and ECMWF are a day faster with the arrival of cold air than the GFS.  Other than that reasonably similar.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here it comes

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Talk about a really nice block!  A tad more tilt or a few degrees west and that will bring snow.  Nice solid run.

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Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Need to see timing move ahead tomorrow... until this is inside Day 7 it's just REALLY nice eye candy.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, Acer said:

Another view of the 384 snow map.

I would.....cry. That blue line (1-2 inches) literally goes over to my house from Tacoma. Good thing that is in fantasy land!

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO saved the night. Well the GEM wasn't awful by any means.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Yuge potential with this event.  I'm amazed how many runs of various models and various ensemble members have shown extraordinary cold with this.  The analogs have been very telling also.  Many from the 1950s, 1962, and 1989.  Amazingly analogs have poped up from the good parts of Jan 1954, late Feb 1955, Feb 1956, and Jan 1957.  Old school stuff.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Need to see timing move ahead tomorrow... until this is inside Day 7 it's just REALLY nice eye candy.

With the big three all showing the same thing confidence has to be above average.  I would like to see another great EPS tonight also.

[wxmet]

Euro does eventually get there which is a good sign.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EURO saved the night. Well the GEM wasn't awful by any means.

The GFS was really good too.

[snow_wizard]

Somewhat impressively since the pattern change on the 15th I have had every high below 50 (48 or below) and every low below 40 IMBY.  That's a big deal by recent late January standards.

[GHweatherChris]

, can't we get something in the believable range for crying out loud.  Things are being delayed again as usual.  No way to sugarcoat that.

[Christensen87]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

, can't we get something in the believable range for crying out loud.  Things are being delayed again as usual.  No way to sugarcoat that.

From what I’m seeing, the fun starts after the 10th. If that keeps getting delayed, then I’ll give up. 

[snow_wizard]

Really solid EPS tonight.  Actually a little better / sharper than the 12z.

[MossMan]

How about a little more from exactly right now 2yrs ago! 

[Kolk1604]

Speaking of the 00z EPS

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

From what I’m seeing, the fun starts after the 10th. If that keeps getting delayed, then I’ll give up. 

The models are really consolidating now.  I would think everyone should know the drill on this by now.  Very high chance a decent cold wave happens.  I would put the chances of an exceptional cold wave (highs well below freezing) at 30% to 40% right now.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I really like the EPS is it keeps the pattern very amplified for a sustained period.  Kind of reminds me of 2019.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient.    Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event.

The EPS  was much more aggressive in February 2019.

I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 9.27” on the month as of midnight. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient.    Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event.

The EPS  was much more aggressive in February 2019.

I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models.  

Yeah we will see nothings for certain that’s for sure. Could work out still. 

[Deweydog]

Chilly rain out there!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody else over an inch below normal rainfall for Jan?

[GHweatherChris]

There is no consolidation in the models that point to yummy goodies, at this time.

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Anybody else over an inch below normal rainfall for Jan?

Almost up to 19.5" MTD here.  20" could happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS continues to be profoundly better than the GEFS, GEPS. Looks very promising, but not believable until the ridge merger is at around Day 2 and pattern sets up at Day 3-4. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes