January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing to see the EPS control looks identical to the operational at day 10.  You don't see that very often.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 15... that is one strong signal for 2 weeks out.

 

It seems to like the idea of persistence once the good pattern sets in.  This could be fun!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS control model actually looks pretty similar to the operational. 

Control run kind of goes off the rails from there... but its just the control run.

 

[snow_wizard]

One other note about the EPS is hangs up the cold anomalies in the Northern tier of states.  That often bodes well for snow in Seattle due to moisture not being shunted as far south.

[OysterPrintout]

Tim is giving me 2019 PTSD by looking at the N|S orientation on those EPS maps.

 

Still some very slight differences between euro and gfs but hey what's 2,000 miles of difference between friends.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus i made it to cabin late lastnight and things went to turd over night?

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run kind of goes off the rails from there... but its just the control run.

 

The control run will be sleeping on the couch tonight at Jim’s house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we got about 2” of precip this week while I was gone. 12.36” on the month. About 2” above average.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS is outstanding. IF this comes to fruition this is the real deal. Let's keep this going move this inside Day 7, then Day 5. C'MON!!!

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows every index being strongly negative as we get into the cold weather.  Even the WPO tanks later on.  Pretty rare indeed.

[Omegaraptor]

So I went and looked up how many below 0F days Government Camp averages per year, by decade.

1952-1959: 1.33 (1952 is unfortunately as far back as the data goes. No January 1950)
1960s: 1.3
1970s: 2.2
1980s: 1.4
1990s: 1.2
2000s: 0.3
2010s: 0.2

Seems to coincide almost perfectly with the 1998 Hadley Cell expansion. Massive drop-off after 1998. @Phil thoughts?

[Fircrest]

The much mentioned and often displayed EPS.  I know it's very important for our snowy and cold future, but what does it stand for again? 

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

The much mentioned and often displayed EPS.  I know it's very important for our snowy and cold future, but what does it stand for again? 

Ensemble Prediction System to Ensure Portland Snow

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

The much mentioned and often displayed EPS.  I know it's very important for our snowy and cold future, but what does it stand for again? 

Ensemble Prediction System... is the ensemble mean of the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice improvements on the Canadian ensembles too.

[Fircrest]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ensemble Prediction System... is the ensemble mean of the ECMWF.

Thanks. I knew it was related to the ECMWF but couldn't remember what the acronym stood for.

[Fircrest]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Nice improvements on the Canadian ensembles too.

Is there a CEPS? 

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Is there a CEPS? 

GEPS

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty sure we will see the GFS get its act together again before he weekend is over.  Really weird how the GFS was the first to spot the change and then dropped the ball.

It's interesting to note the indices all being so negative during the cold snap will significantly increase the chances for  displaced PVs like yesterday's 12s GFS showed.  if that happens things could get pretty real.  There have been a few instances in the past where highs in the low 20s or lower happened in Seattle as late as mid February.  I would imagine ones like 1858, 1923, and 1956 involved some displaced PV action.

[MossMan]

52 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jesus i made it to cabin late lastnight and things went to turd over night?

Yeah the short version is that we cancelled winter this morning thanks to that horrific American model...The Canadians gave us a little hope, then the Europeans told us that winter is back on. 

[Fircrest]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

GEPS

Ah yes, the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System

[Fircrest]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah the short version is that we cancelled winter this morning thanks to that horrific American model...The Canadians gave us a little hope, then the Europeans told us that winter is back on. 

No more America first with Trump gone I guess. We really need to make the GFS great again.

[Timmy]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty sure we will see the GFS get its act together again before he weekend is over.  Really weird how the GFS was the first to spot the change and then dropped the ball.

It's interesting to note the indices all being so negative during the cold snap will significantly increase the chances for  displaced PVs like yesterday's 12s GFS showed.  if that happens things could get pretty real.  There have been a few instances in the past where highs in the low 20s or lower happened in Seattle as late as mid February.  I would imagine ones like 1858, 1923, and 1956 involved some displaced PV action.

i bet the 18z blinks 

[MossMan]

I bet Richard Simmons would be asking the same thing if he didn’t permanently ban himself. 

[weather_fan]

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

A much colder and much snowier version of February 2019

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

 

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

Read up It’s fun.

[Fircrest]

4 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19901226&slug=1111440#:~:text=Jan.,Seattle's coldest since records began.

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

Jan 1950 was the biggest Arctic cold and snow event of the last century. Nothing since it has even come close.

Here's PDX:

Falling snow nearly every day, -2F to finish off the month, and then in early February came a -3F reading. For comparison, the coldest temperature PDX has recorded in the last 30 years is 11F. Probably not even possible to repeat today, between our modern climactic state and UHI.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 50 degrees for the first time in 15 days. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 50 degrees for the first time in 15 days. 

41 here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

41 here.

15 days is actually a decent streak here. Longest streak I’ve recorded here was 37 days...from February 1st 2019 to March 9th 2019. February 2019 is the only month in my records that it didn’t hit 50 the entire month. 

[Thurston Howell III]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 50 degrees for the first time in 15 days. 

45 here.  I'm in GH at 370' and in the woods not far from the end of Vashon.  But we don't get the highs or lows here.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

57.2 inches of snow at SEA with a monthly temperature average of 24.9.  Their average low was something like 18 for that month.  Totally insane!

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Thurston Howell III said:

45 here.  I'm in GH at 370' and in the woods not far from the end of Vashon.  But we don't get the highs or lows here.

Do you not have a weather station nearby there or a thermometer at your place? 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

15 days is actually a decent streak here. Longest streak I’ve recorded here was 37 days...from February 1st 2019 to March 9th 2019. February 2019 is the only month in my records that it didn’t hit 50 the entire month. 

My streak is still going with 46.  We have just a tiny easterly drift going here which is allowing chilly air to seep in from the mountain valleys.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

57.2 inches of snow at SEA with a monthly temperature average of 24.9.  Their average ow was something like 18 for that month.  Totally insane!

Just for comparison February 2019 was 35.2 avg. for the whole month here in Tacoma. Average low of 31 and 22.0 inches of snow. SEA numbers were pretty similar as well. 

[weather_fan]

Thanks for all the responses on why 1950 was special but does anyone know why was that the case? What were the parameters causing the temperatures to be so colder than average for so long.

[Chewbacca Defense]

31 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Everybody brings up jan 1950. What was so special About it? Does anyone have Sea and portland temps for that month?

And here is a collection of articles for what happened up here in Whatcom County.

https://atmos.uw.edu/marka/bham_herald_jan50.cgi

 

Sounds like it was a pretty wild ride....