January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

10-day snow totals per the 00Z ECMWF...

[Cloud]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient.    Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event.

The EPS  was much more aggressive in February 2019.

I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models.  

There was a definite line drawn last year and Seattle was right at it. Even a 30 miles shift south woulda made a difference. That is something we'll never be able to see on the models that far out. 

[Deweydog]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient.    Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event.

The EPS  was much more aggressive in February 2019.

I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models.  

Eh... last January was characterized by a sprawling, exceptionally-cold air mass which never had any formidable upstream blocking.  The coldest runs were always pretty fantastical with a significant lack of a NE to SW driver.  Long range hints at much more stable upstream blocking at the moment, FWIW.

[Gradient Keeper]

The pattern sets up in just 5.5 to 6 days on the EURO. We're going to know fairly soon if this is going to happen or not.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

[Meatyorologist]

Seems very similar to the 00z so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

Eh, not as good so far. To be expected with natural variability.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Nope...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gonna be some disappointed folks on here in a few hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

No model agreement yet, but would much rather have the EURO/EPS in our corner as we have now.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty excessively terrible run. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Pretty excessively terrible run. 

Still close enough. Terrible would be split flow or an endless AR or death ridging. All in all the 06z has some nice sunny/cool days with NW flow. Late winter perfection if you ask most. Though of course, we'd all love pepto cold and snow. Still plenty of time for that to change.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Still close enough. Terrible would be split flow or an endless AR or death ridging. All in all the 06z has some nice sunny/cool days with NW flow. Late winter perfection if you ask most. Though of course, we'd all love pepto cold and snow. Still plenty of time for that to change.

At this point it's pretty much snow or bust. The reality remains that this has been a historically poor winter so far for much of the region. This is likely going to be our last little window for anything substantial. Highs in the low 50s aren't going to do anything to flip that script. 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm beginning to have creeping thoughts of warm afternoons and nocturnal lightning storms crawl into my head; but at the same time, I would kill for a nice couple weeks of Arctic air. This is the reason why I dislike late blooming winters, because even if winter blows its load in November/December, at least I have something to hang my coat on and say, "It was a decent winter, I accept the transition back to summer."

With late winters and winters that don't materialize at all, it's a weird dichotomy in my mind that can't sort itself out until late March when I finally resign to the changing seasons. That being said, I'm still giving this winter until mid-late February before I'm considering it cancelled. Anything after that and it's likely highs 35+ and a few sloppy inches of messy slush. Winter ends fast around here.

[The Blob]

There it is, the snow

[smerfylicious]

Well it sure would be nice for a couple of feet to fall. I won't hold my breath however, this winter has been a dud for winter weather in the lowlands...

[Kayla]

Nice surprise dumping of 6" of snowfall here overnight and it's still snowing. Very wet snowfall so it's beautiful in town and in my backyard.

https://nbcmontana.com/weather/cameras

[Phil]

Goofus time travels back to 2015 after D10.

Anyone remember this pattern? Warm advection machine. 

[MossMan]

Currently cloudy and 41 degrees.

5.80” of precipitation on the month. 

[Kolk1604]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently cloudy and 41 degrees.

5.80” of precipitation on the month. 

Yeah thats garbage right there. It's positive for a second then it looks good 

[SalemDuck]

The GFS makes a complete messy of the pacific blocking. I hope it’s just cause it’s a poor model. Huge model showdown coming between it and the euro 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah thats garbage right there. It's positive for a second then it looks good 

The difference between the GFS and the EURO PNA modeling. It appears the GFS is kind of lost right now. 

[FroYoBro]

I just lost my house and wife due to my DOGE investment and now this? 2021 was supposed to be better...

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS is not going in the right direction in the slightest. 

Hoping this is just the fabled D5-D7 pullback before it starts showing the goods again. 

Hopefully the GEM and EURO hold up. 

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I just lost my house and wife due to my DOGE investment and now this? 2021 was supposed to be better...

Same... well I just lost $5 in Doge I guess.

[Blizzard777]

Like and old prospector I won’t give up on February.  Anything can happen but I did sell my GFS stock 

40* and blah out 

[Prairiedog]

12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Same... well I just lost $5 in Doge I guess.

Short it.  That should pay off well, esp the GFS stock. 

[MossMan]

JAYA was not onboard yesterday...I doubt that has changed this morning. 

[SalemDuck]

The GFS and GEM are on different planets in the day 5-10 range 

[TT-SEA]

Things might not be going well when the hope is being pinned on a GEM run that does not show any lowland snow through 240 hours.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm beginning to have creeping thoughts of warm afternoons and nocturnal lightning storms crawl into my head; but at the same time, I would kill for a nice couple weeks of Arctic air. This is the reason why I dislike late blooming winters, because even if winter blows its load in November/December, at least I have something to hang my coat on and say, "It was a decent winter, I accept the transition back to summer."

With late winters and winters that don't materialize at all, it's a weird dichotomy in my mind that can't sort itself out until late March when I finally resign to the changing seasons. That being said, I'm still giving this winter until mid-late February before I'm considering it cancelled. Anything after that and it's likely highs 35+ and a few sloppy inches of messy slush. Winter ends fast around here.

Blasphemy.

[MossMan]

December 2021 is going to rock 2008 style! Looks like we are waiting until then for snow and cold. 

[TT-SEA]

Major shift over the last day on the GEFS as well... here is day 10 on the new 12Z GEFS.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well good thing I didn't emotionally invest in this. I'm not getting off to everyone's disappointment like the dude above me though. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Good thing we still have your trusty EPS!

Everything else should follow that, right?

Yes... the EPS is still decent.   Although I said last night that it was not spectacular like I have seen at times in the past (e.g. February 2019).

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well good thing I didn't emotionally invest in this. I'm not getting off to everyone's disappointment like the dude above me though. 

I am actually surprised as well... February has been golden lately.    That has me thinking it can still happen and this is just a temporary pull back.