January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

28 minutes ago, Cloud said:

How the GFS is doing last 12 hours. Yeah, get this shiet outta here.  Zero consistency so it’s a good thing no one takes LR all that seriously. 
 

 

That would probably give me gloppy rain at about 38.  The middle is where its at!  I'm content. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's making everything too complicated.  This is a pretty straight forward looking evolution on the other models.

What if it was a complicated pattern that worked out well for us?

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX NWS forecasters going with the GFS/WPC blend with a ridge at ~130-135 W and stating the ECMWF is an outlier. Considering the long range GFS has little accuracy and with the consistency of the EURO Op, EPS, GEM and improving GEPS this seems puzzling to me.

[Prairiedog]

Cats are anticipatory.  Brought back memories from Feb '50

[Front Ranger]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bartells in North Bend still has shovels... going quick!  

Had one of those once. Broke the first winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Had one of those once. Broke the first winter.

Have had the same snow shovel here for 13 years now. Has put in a lot of work over the years including December 2008 and February 2019 and hasn’t failed! 

[Winterdog]

47.5 now which is the high for the day after a not so low of 38.  Looking forward to those low teens in 8 or 9 days. 

[TacomaWaWx]

47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet Feb 2019 was still SEA's third coldest on record (narrowly missing 2nd). And would have been good for a top 10 cold January at SEA.

Although January can definitely get colder than February, 1950 was such a huge outlier. 

I’m glad I was alive to see February 2019. It was really something special here. Coldest month in my record books...December 2008 wasn’t even close to being as impressive...but of course 2008 was more impressive on a regional scale. Wish February 2019 would have been a more regional event than it was. 

[OysterPrintout]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

PDX NWS forecasters going with the GFS/WPC blend with a ridge at ~130-135 W and stating the ECMWF is an outlier. Considering the long range GFS has little accuracy and with the consistency of the EURO Op, EPS, GEM and improving GEPS this seems puzzling to me.

Still far enough out that the safe bet is climo especially for the consumption of the general public 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Have had the same snow shovel here for 13 years now. Has put in a lot of work over the years including December 2008 and February 2019 and hasn’t failed! 

Nice. Maybe mine was defective, like the GFS.

[Winterdog]

The parallel is sure looking toasty after it's nap.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Acer said:

47.5 now which is the high for the day after a not so low of 38.  Looking forward to those low teens in 8 or 9 days. 

42 here. Dribbles finally stopped. 
.07” on the day. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Acer said:

The parallel is sure looking toasty after it's nap.

Should I go ahead and hit the winter cancel button again? 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Should I go ahead and hit the winter cancel button again? 

We gotta hold out hope that the Euro and it's foreign kin win this battle.  If the Euro collapses tonight it's all over though.  Until it's not all over.

[High Desert Mat?]

I have a feeling the euro will cave on tonight’s 00z. Call me crazy but it’s just not in the cards for us this winter. 

[MWG]

Beautiful sunny day 58/33. Love days like this but I want a couple of days of snow! 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I have a feeling the euro will cave on tonight’s 00z. Call me crazy but it’s just not in the cards for us this winter. 

Did you just get off the conference call with Culver? 

[Cloud]

58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's making everything too complicated.  This is a pretty straight forward looking evolution on the other models.

You may be right that it is making everything too complicated. But to my question of what's causing this? One of the features I've seen with the GFS in the mid to long range is that it has a tendency to introduce a closed low that throws off pattern evolutions or the pattern is just complicated in general. Pretty sure, I'm not the alone one as others have brought up similar problems before regarding the GFS so that makes it completely volatile. The Euro is more "stable" in this regard. The last few runs in the mid-range, the GFS and Euro op runs are not even in the same ballpark it seems. In which case, I have a lot more confidence in the Euro for the mid-range forecast. 

[TacomaWaWx]

29 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I have a feeling the euro will cave on tonight’s 00z. Call me crazy but it’s just not in the cards for us this winter. 

I’m thinking we will finally score this time around. Could be wrong but I think this February will work out as many have recently. 

[Omegaraptor]

37 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I have a feeling the euro will cave on tonight’s 00z. Call me crazy but it’s just not in the cards for us this winter. 

First year Nina = split flow hell

[Jesse]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

First year Nina = split flow hell

Has been anything but split flow this winter. A raging jet if anything.

You fail again

[Prairiedog]

18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

First year Nina = split flow hell

I think we've had 3 atmospheric rivers and another possible weak to moderate one lurking for parts of the state.  That's a lot.  Been a pretty active jet so far. 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Has been anything but split flow this winter. A raging jet if anything.

You fail again

I mean this winter hasn't been splitty, but still a big pile of cowshit so far. Whatever.

"Warm flow hell" makes more sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After a fairly dry October and November we  will end up with about 25% above our normal rainfall for December/January.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After a fairly dry October and November we  will end up with about 25% above our normal rainfall for December/January.

We haven’t had below normal rainfall since July/august. Every month has been average/above average as well up this way. 

[MossMan]

Quite the crappy damp drippy 42 degree day. My least favorite. 

[Omegaraptor]

Hillsboro got to 51 today while PDX only got to 47.

[Meatyorologist]

Michael seems to have enjoyed the 12z Euro.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Two years ago, the goodies were starting to show up

[Jesse]

26 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I mean this winter hasn't been splitty, but still a big pile of cowshit so far. Whatever.

"Warm flow hell" makes more sense.

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Two years ago, the goodies were starting to show up

That looks so weak compared to what happened too. Interesting.

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Okay, let's wait until we see some above average temps in the spring, summer, or fall 

[Phil]

@iFred Ur missing another blizzard.

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I have a feeling the euro will cave on tonight’s 00z. Call me crazy but it’s just not in the cards for us this winter. 

Goofus will get stomped.

[MossMan]

Up to .14” on the day! 

[AbbyJr]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

PDX NWS forecasters going with the GFS/WPC blend with a ridge at ~130-135 W and stating the ECMWF is an outlier. Considering the long range GFS has little accuracy and with the consistency of the EURO Op, EPS, GEM and improving GEPS this seems puzzling to me.

That is a bit perplexing. The ECMWF is known as one of the most reliable models. I can't imagine many situations where one would trust the GFS over it. Of course there may be some but in this case, I don't see the ECMWF as an outlier at all. The GEFS actually looks similar, just some minor differences in the ridge and trough position. That said, I don't know everything so I could be wrong but I must admit it's a bit baffling to disregard the ECMWF as an outlier. Remember when it was the only model to accurately predict the most recent PNW windstorm? There is a reason it's regarded as one of the best models.

[Phil]

The Euro was the outlier with the storm here last Tuesday too. It ended up humiliating all of the other models. The GFS folded like a wet piece of paper.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

That is a bit perplexing. The ECMWF is known as one of the most reliable models. I can't imagine many situations where one would trust the GFS over it. Of course there may be some but in this case, I don't see the ECMWF as an outlier at all. The GEFS actually looks similar, just some minor differences in the ridge and trough position. That said, I don't know everything so I could be wrong but I must admit it's a bit baffling to disregard the ECMWF as an outlier. Remember when it was the only model to accurately predict the most recent PNW windstorm? There is a reason it's regarded as one of the best models.

Climatology.  Easier to say no than yes.  Works 90 percent of the time around here.  

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The Euro was the outlier with the storm here last Tuesday too. It ended up humiliating all of the other models. The GFS folded like a wet piece of paper.

Agreed. It just makes no sense to disregard the Euro at this point.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

If mid-February snow doesn’t pan out, we want to spend a couple days east of the Cascades to bask in some snow. What are the best non-touristy/popular areas (so not Leavenworth, Winthrop, etc.) to stay at for maximum snowage? We love Plain but we’d like to try somewhere different. 

Snowmizer’s place!!