January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think the EC sticks to its guns.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS at day 10... actually worse than the 12Z run.    Last night it was fully on board at day 10.  

 

[Bryant]

Some of you enjoy trying to breed negativity 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think the EC sticks to its guns.

Honestly possible, the CMC and GSF aren't great models and its still in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think the EC sticks to its guns.

I agree... and I say that because the EPS has been consistent.  

[Phil]

Who needs a snow fix?

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/snowshoe-shavers-centre/

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Who needs a snow fix?

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/snowshoe-shavers-centre/

Wow... it is absolutely dumping there right now.   Reminds me of 2/11/19 here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Decided its time to try snowboarding for the first time either next weekend or the following one. Any preference of slops? 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Decided its time to try snowboarding for the first time either next weekend or the following one. Any preference of slops? 

My steep driveway in a week or two! 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Decided its time to try snowboarding for the first time either next weekend or the following one. Any preference of slops? 

Crystal mountain. It’s close and has excellent runs! 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... it is absolutely dumping there right now.   Reminds me of 2/11/19 here.

I’d live on that mountain if there was a job market of any kind. Only place in the mid-Atlantic where people wear sweatshirts in the middle of July without dying of heat stroke. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Quick question? Would you rather have the EURO looking good Day 6-10 or inside Day 5 and then a big rug pull with the model flopping to complete garbage.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quick question? Would you rather have the EURO looking good Day 6-10 or inside Day 5 and then a big rug pull with the model flopping to complete garbage.

Looking good day five because, you can count on that more.

[TacomaWaWx]

Crystal mountain is beautiful. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Quick question? Would you rather have the EURO looking good Day 6-10 or inside Day 5 and then a big rug pull with the model flopping to complete garbage.

Is this a trick question? I'll take option 1 cause we know option 2 is not possible

[Gradient Keeper]

Well......... here we go.... I guess

00z ECMWF Day 1

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Well......... here we go.... I guess

00z ECMWF Day 1

Have faith rob!

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Have faith rob!

If euro stays good, might discount the other models.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Well......... here we go.... I guess

00z ECMWF Day 1

Have faith! All is not lost yet!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[AbbyJr]

00Z GFS ensembles really backs off on the cold. 

Decent GOA block but no PNW troughing. I'm interested to see if the EPS tonight remains consistent or caves.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Deweydog]

Sometimes you just gotta let a dud be a dud.

#saveit4december

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 4

I wonder if the main difference has been that trough by Hawaii that is stronger on the GSF and pushes the ridge too far east. Euro still has that trough weaker. 

[MossMan]

Mat and Matt are not onboard. 

[Phil]

I admit I’m somewhat surprised you guys haven’t scored something yet, given how blocked up the Pacific (and NH in general) has been over the last 4 weeks. At least some of it boils down to unlucky timing of the intraseasonal cycle w/ respect to the seasonal evolution of the low pass state.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TT-SEA]

Big changes on the 00Z ECMWF at 132 hours.   Looks more like the GFS and way different than the 12Z ECMWF. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Big changes on the 00Z ECMWF at 132 hours.   Looks more like the GFS and way different than the 12Z ECMWF. 

I don't see it, they look quite different at 144 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Nope. King GFS

 

[Cloud]

Euro is actually caving.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Nope. King GFS

 

I don't get it, it looks very different than the gfs and is an improvement over the last Euro run. The troughs to the west and north of the Alaskan ridge don't appear to merge and ruin everything like on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I made it through the late 90s and early 2000s, I will make it through this tribulation as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Always the remote chance things flip back in our favor.... who are we kidding though. Well. I guess it's back to midget p0rn.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I don't get it, it looks very different than the gfs and is an improvement over the last Euro run. The troughs to the west and north of the Alaskan ridge don't appear to merge and ruin everything like on the GFS.

You are reading it wrong.  Less energy riding over the ridge... that is what resulted in the arctic air roaring southward on previous runs. 

Always a chance the ECMWF is just thinking too hard and does not realize how easy this is going to be.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is just painful....

[Meatyorologist]

lmao this forum is so emotional. See y’all in a couple hours.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

lmao this forum is so emotional. See y’all in a couple hours.

It's a pretty epic cave for the ECMWF. 

[Kolk1604]

Why not wait for the EPS? Maybe this is just a bad op run