January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

2:19 AM Radar Update

Heavy rain here near West Gresham and into the Foothills

 

I can confirm, it is raining hard, and my insomnia is raging!

[Meatyorologist]

[Gradient Keeper]

No wonder it's all gone to crap. The return of the behemoth NE Canada/Greenland block is back.

[smerfylicious]

I'm not usually a doomer by any stretch of the imagination, but this winter had all of the ingredients for something epic. Everything lined up in some way or another to give us the impression that this was gonna be a killer winter. Even Phil is surprised we haven't scored. 

I'd almost rather take a bunch of terribad runs than have the constant rug pull of the past 3 months. At least then it wouldn't be memorably disappointing, just something forgettable.

Here's to hoping February manages to deliver the goods, but based on how the models have thrown 3 feet of powder in our laps at hour 300+ only to pull back to mild and dry in the believable range I'm just gonna have to hold my breath.

What a waste of a season it's been so far.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm not usually a doomer by any stretch of the imagination, but this winter had all of the ingredients for something epic. Everything lined up in some way or another to give us the impression that this was gonna be a killer winter. Even Phil is surprised we haven't scored. 

I'd almost rather take a bunch of terribad runs than have the constant rug pull of the past 3 months. At least then it wouldn't be memorably disappointing, just something forgettable.

Here's to hoping February manages to deliver the goods, but based on how the models have thrown 3 feet of powder in our laps at hour 300+ only to pull back to mild and dry in the believable range I'm just gonna have to hold my breath.

What a waste of a season it's been so far.

Yep, I feel exactly the same way about this. I'm giving it two weeks. If by Valentines day there is nothing on the horizon, it's pretty much over. What a sad winter it's been... I guarantee you if we were to roll the dice again we'd get a great winter.

Given the atmospheric indices in place, this winter likely played out the bottom five percent of available outcomes. Sometimes you just get unlucky... it happens. With a likely La Niña prognosis for next winter, I think the tables turn for the better, because again, if we roll the die again, it's an above average season.

[smerfylicious]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep, I feel exactly the same way about this. I'm giving it two weeks. If by Valentines day there is nothing on the horizon, it's pretty much over. What a sad winter it's been... I guarantee you if we were to roll the dice again we'd get a great winter.

Given the atmospheric indices in place, this winter likely played out the bottom five percent of available outcomes. Sometimes you just get unlucky... it happens. With a likely La Niña prognosis for next winter, I think the tables turn for the better, because again, if we roll the die again, it's an above average season.

I think every possible region other than us scored this winter. Even New Zealand got some summer snow lol. Phil even scored kinda. 

We sacrificed our winter so Japan could be buried by record snowfall. lol

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I think every possible region other than us scored this winter. Even New Zealand got some summer snow lol. Phil even scored kinda. 

We sacrificed our winter so Japan could be buried by record snowfall. lol

I was just thinking about that... the PNW was one of the only regions in the northern hemisphere that didn't even get a taste of winter. The rest of the world got at least a few days. Sad. We still have a few weeks left, though, so not throwing the towel yet.

[smerfylicious]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I was just thinking about that... the PNW was one of the only regions in the northern hemisphere that didn't even get a taste of winter. The rest of the world got at least a few days. Sad. We still have a few weeks left, though, so not throwing the towel yet.

I'm not throwing in the towel either, it's just disappointing. 

Imagine if that cold air that parked over Siberia for a month and dunked on asia was over NA...I could dream...

[Link]

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm not usually a doomer by any stretch of the imagination, but this winter had all of the ingredients for something epic. Everything lined up in some way or another to give us the impression that this was gonna be a killer winter. Even Phil is surprised we haven't scored. 

I'd almost rather take a bunch of terribad runs than have the constant rug pull of the past 3 months. At least then it wouldn't be memorably disappointing, just something forgettable.

Here's to hoping February manages to deliver the goods, but based on how the models have thrown 3 feet of powder in our laps at hour 300+ only to pull back to mild and dry in the believable range I'm just gonna have to hold my breath.

What a waste of a season it's been so far.

It's not doomer pointing things out as they are. Reality usually isn't kind.  

If you look at what's been going on in the Pacific ocean for the last couple years (plural) you wouldn't be surprised at what's happening. Feb 2019 was a huge outlier this decade minus that we have had more and more early springs. 

 It's like only watching CNN and similar stuff and then surprised when the SHTF yet all sorts of clues and warning shots have been coming yet were not allowed to be aired.........................

 I figured it was going this way.  Models are only a SMALL picture and they are broken at best not updating for the new conditions yet they want us to give up our cars to these computers and take their word for it............  Thanks but no. I'll wait for the trusting idiots to crash and they get the 'kinks' out of the systems before I even consider it.

[Link]

21 hours ago, Phil said:

Goofus time travels back to 2015 after D10.

Anyone remember this pattern? Warm advection machine. 

Dam. Is Divine Beast Vah Ruta at it again making it rain?Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Vah Ruta Divine Beast Walkthrough - Part 7 - YouTube

[Link]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Here's my model which is more accurate then either of those. 

[Link]

5 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

We just have to blow big holes in the Cascades and Rockies so we get more cold air.

We could always put up giant space mirrors to deflect sunlight. Could Space Mirrors Stop Global Warming? | Live Science  or use an umbrella? How a giant space umbrella could stop global warming - BBC Future

[Link]

5 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Incredible how cold patterns are always pushed back in time until they disappear or miraculously start getting closer.

Or miraculously become warm fronts. 

[TT-SEA]

Mild and dry this morning... 50 degrees in North Bend.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

No wonder it's all gone to crap. The return of the behemoth NE Canada/Greenland block is back.

The Greenland block arguably helps more than it hurts for loading the -PNA. Certainly preferable to that +TNH/Baffin Island vortex pattern which is both dry + warm out there (especially during the warm season).

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep, I feel exactly the same way about this. I'm giving it two weeks. If by Valentines day there is nothing on the horizon, it's pretty much over. What a sad winter it's been... I guarantee you if we were to roll the dice again we'd get a great winter.

Given the atmospheric indices in place, this winter likely played out the bottom five percent of available outcomes. Sometimes you just get unlucky... it happens. With a likely La Niña prognosis for next winter, I think the tables turn for the better, because again, if we roll the die again, it's an above average season.

Even if Feb doesn’t deliver, don’t count out some late season magic this year. It would defy the odds to go the remainder of the cold season without another cold west pattern.

We’ve had a myriad of winters that were essentially snowless thru Feb, then delivered in March. In 2012/13 it took until *March 28th* to score a 3”+ snowfall. In 2017/18 it took until March 21st. In 2008/09 it took until March 1st. And that’s with steeper sun angles/more insolation compared to PNW region.

[MossMan]

Light rain and 44.

.07” so far on the day.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Light rain and 44.

.07” so far on the day.

Wow. We just had a nice run of minus PNA without much to show for it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The one thing that is really disappointing about these model pullbacks is that we go from a potentially great pattern to just an absolutely awful one. It would be an easier pill to swallow if we at least went into a good snow pack building pattern, but we don't, not at all. As 2019 defied Nino climo, the first half of February 2021 looks to defy Nina climo. So much for the canonical Nina we kept hearing about. 

[BLI snowman]

2008 had a pretty ridgy, bland February after the first few days. Took until late March to get back into a deep troughing pattern.

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah that’s part of the reason it’s looking unlikely I go to MSU. Even though I got WUE which is a $56k grant over four years it’s still more expensive than OSU because housing is expensive there. Also, I can visit back home much easier if I’m a 1.5 hour drive from home than a 12 hour drive from home.

I don't think it too bad for the students.  My son is in a 3 bedroom place and pays $500 per month for his share, I'm not sure about his utilities (I think less than $100), so that seems pretty reasonable.  Can't argue with you on the drive it is pretty brutal to do with any kind of regularity.  It's much more manageable in my current car comfort-wise, but that's still a long day.

 

Congrats on  the WUE, that's awesome!

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah up there especially coastal Maine/New Hampshire is very different. Lots of evergreens like PNW with cool/foggy summers. Winters, on the other hand..

Yeah the winters, that's where I am hitting a wall with my wife.  I would love it, my wife....notsomuch!

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2008 had a pretty ridgy, bland February after the first few days. Took until late March to get back into a deep troughing pattern.

Cool!  Let's keep this miserable 48 degree nightmare winter going until April 

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2008 had a pretty ridgy, bland February after the first few days. Took until late March to get back into a deep troughing pattern.

It’s funny I was just thinking about the same thing. I remember some sunny days with frosty mornings and afternoons near 60 in mid February that year.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Acer said:

Cool!  Let's keep this miserable 48 degree nightmare winter going until April 

Seems pretty likely that we'll make the transition to cool at some point after this winter madness. Even the very similar Nina dud in 1999-00 transitioned to some chilly stretches in the spring and had a summer that would be considered historically frigid by recent standards

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s funny I was just thinking about the same thing. I remember some sunny days with frosty mornings and afternoons near 60 in mid February that year.

There was a fair amount of blocking middle and late in the month, but it all favored the Upper Midwest while we sat under a ridge.

[Timmy]

The 12z is way different and not that bad at day 11

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems pretty likely that we'll make the transition to cool at some point after this winter madness. Even the very similar Nina dud in 1999-00 transitioned to some chilly stretches in the spring and had a summer that would be considered historically frigid by recent standards

Hoping we can at least get that part of a Niña right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah this run at least isn't a wall to wall horror show. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some mildly interesting clown range nuggets. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The 12z is way different and not that bad at day 11

Such an easy path too... all we need is the first wave miss us to the east... then deliver arctic cold to the middle of the country... then it goes off the East Coast... then it travels westward through northern Canada... finally parking itself over Alaska... then it comes south and just misses us to the east again.  

Very straightforward 2 week period... lock it in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not trying to say the 12z does not suck, but it would probably at least produce some chilly lows. And some beautiful sunny days. Early February 2011-esque. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend who lives in NYC just sent me this...

[Poulsbo Snowman]

6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Has anyone tried model riding whilst sitting on the john? It is truly a new perspective.... I need sleep.

I don't think anyone sporting that name should make any such admissions.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My friend who lives in NYC just sent me this...

Some inside information there!   

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I don't think anyone sporting that name should make any such admissions.

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am of the mind that if one is unhappy where they are at, they will be unhappy wherever they move. Moving to find happiness is merely running away from your problems. They will eventually catch up. 

Words of wisdom 

[Fircrest]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am of the mind that if one is unhappy where they are at, they will be unhappy wherever they move. Moving to find happiness is merely running away from your problems. They will eventually catch up. 

Unless the only problem one has is lack of snow...

[Blizzard777]

Tough 24 hours in the model riding world! May need to go heavy on the syrup and butter on my pancakes  

Sad Panda 

46* and rain showers

[Jesse]

17 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Unless the only problem one has is lack of snow...

If this man exists I want to meet him and shake his hand.