January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Didn't the models flip flop in 2019 until we got 3 or 4 days out?  Even then, I don't recall the models showing 2' of snow in anyone's yard once they flipped, just before they finally flopped.

Still a chance things can work out. Still lots of time until March. We’ve had some decent events in late February and that’s still a ways out from where the models can even see at this point. Still a chance mid February could work but trends aren’t great at the moment. 

[mtep]

I've been spoiled by every winter I've had up here except this one so far. 16-17, 17-18, 18-19 and 19-20 were all fun as hell for a kid from Texas. This winter can eat a bag of d*cks. Had to break the streak some time I guess. But I'm still optimistic about the rest of the month. Feb 19 really seemed to sneak up out of nowhere. 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Didn't the models flip flop in 2019 until we got 3 or 4 days out?  Even then, I don't recall the models showing 2' of snow in anyone's yard once they flipped, just before they finally flopped.

There was a sizable flip for the bad on 1/28/19 which is a little reminiscent of the current situation...Even the EPS took a major dump but then the models quickly came back to goodness. I don’t think that is going to happen this time unfortunately...Just my personal opinion. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice day out here... warmest day in a couple weeks.

[AbbyJr]

12Z EPS still solid.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

12Z EPS still solid.

During this past week it was solid for next weekend... and now its seems it won't even be close in reality.   

But it never went crazy and arctic like the ECMWF which had me doubting those crazy ECMWF runs.   It seems like lately the ensembles just default to a trough over western Canada and the PNW in the long range but the coldest air is always shown to be well north.    I guess that means there is a chance but it really does feel like chasing a carrot at this point.   

 

[Winterdog]

2 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

I'm still not buying this model collapse.

Makes no sense we don't score something good in a phase 7 MJO.

Apart from minor changes to the timing, the EPS remains consistent.

At this point I'd still expect other models to cave to it.

While I could be wrong, I still trust the EPS.

You must be a Jim understudy.

[AbbyJr]

[Winterdog]

40 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How would everyone grade your January experience?

The windstorm was the real notable event for the month and I hate wind storms so January weather get's an unmistakable Eff (F).  Model riding gets a B because it was stressful and expectant most days but yielded nothing.

[AbbyJr]

8 minutes ago, Acer said:

You must be a Jim understudy.

What's wrong with being positive?

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

It's always only 360 hours out.

I remember when the extended Euro and GEFS were showing a major flip to -PNA in mid-December. Then early January. Then mid January, etc etc.

[Winterdog]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

What's wrong with being positive?

I didn't say anything was wrong about it.

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What's wrong with being positive?

More thoughts on this subject.  There have been many many times over the years where Jim's positive attitude has really been refreshing and I always welcome it.  The only time I have a complaint is when positivity goes beyond reason.   When it gets to that point it's no less ridiculous than calling winter cancel in January.

 

[MossMan]

I have some super exciting news to share...My temp has gone from 44.8 to 45.1 in the last several hours!! Epic January day! 
Up to .31” on the day!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really though I would probably give this month a D. We had near average snowfall (5.8") for January, and above average rainfall. Very mild month though overall. Our coldest low was 24. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are up to 12.99" of rain on the month and it just began to rain! When I update my precip for the water year we will be over 40". 

[jakerepp]

Just ate a nice pulled pork sandwich, now about to play Call of Duty. Might go to Costco in a bit, and then maybe even Big 5 to buy some more exercise equipment.

Exciting things coming!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are up to 12.99" of rain on the month and it just began to rain! When I update my precip for the water year we will be over 40". 

Tale of two months here.  The North Bend station down in the valley had 9.5 inches of rain during the first half of the month and less than .50 for entire second half of the month.  

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Just ate a nice pulled pork sandwich, now about to play Call of Duty. Might go to Costco in a bit, and then maybe even Big 5 to buy some more exercise equipment.

Exciting things coming!

FYI!  Costco closes at 5!!!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

FYI!  Costco closes at 5!!!

I think the Issaquah store closes at 6.    But maybe that one is different since its right next to the headquarters.   

Side note... they are building a small city around the Costco headquarters.   Three cranes up currently on the north side of I-90.    Supposedly its going to be a corporate village like Microsoft has in Redmond.  Business must be good... despite being a brick and mortar retail store.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the Issaquah store closes at 6.    But maybe that one is different since its right next to the headquarters.   

Side note... they are building a small city around the Costco headquarters.   Three cranes up currently on the north side of I-90.    Supposedly its going to be a corporate village like Microsoft has in Redmond.

I think you’re right. I think they made their holiday hours permanent a few years ago. 

[snow drift]

This winter has been a bigger turd than most recent ninos. We've had zero cold. Our nicest trough was in October. I would like to see the niña quickly collapse. I'm rooting for a neutral next winter. Heck, an el niño wouldn't and couldn't be any worse. Over the last 15 years, we have seen our biggest cold departures in every month except January. These days we routinely hit 50 degrees in December and January. Given the state of our winter climate, I think palmettos have a reasonable chance of surviving in the city of Spokane Valley. I'm sure that the spring will be loaded with endless cold troughs a la 2011. Meanwhile, the Eastern 2/3 of the United States will enjoy a healthy ridge. End of rant.

[umadbro]

[Jesse]

I hate my life and hate this climate. I swear the two are totally unrelated though...

[Deweydog]

Praise Judah!

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the Issaquah store closes at 6.    But maybe that one is different since its right next to the headquarters.   

Side note... they are building a small city around the Costco headquarters.   Three cranes up currently on the north side of I-90.    Supposedly its going to be a corporate village like Microsoft has in Redmond.  Business must be good... despite being a brick and mortar retail store.

Door down at 6:05

Then the purge starts around 6:20 so front registers are not overwhelmed 

Last members out 6:35 or so and usually the person who wants to write a bad check plays on this hoping we just sign off on check to get them out.   Now, you know the rest of the story .  

 

[Omegaraptor]

Wouldn't a big Mt Hood storm with 60-70 gusts and heavy powder snowfall be great right about now.

[Cjmessling]

Well it is looking bleak. Living at 20’ elevation in fife makes it easier to accept a snowless to near snowless winter. 
 

In positive news...my wife and I have just finalized a new build home in Tehaleh in Bonney lake at 707 feet. Drove up there today just to confirm elevation. Should be ready to move in by September. I’ll be ready for next winter! 
 

My wife wanted a newer house in puyallup but I told her I ain’t moving unless it’s at 500 feet or higher in elevation. She listened!!

[MossMan]

What we have learned today...

Several forum members will be moving east of the cascades after this god awful winter, it’s dry and warm at Tim’s house, very wet and coolish at my house, Costco closes at either 5 or 6pm on Sunday’s, Judas Priest dude was right, and JAYA is just as big of a weenie as the rest of us. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Holy moly, not 3 hours after I said "I could never get my wife to the New England area" she came out and said "so, let's talk about Maine"  She had a lazy morning hanging out in bed and was doing a lot of thinking about our next steps.  

We discussed the climate alot, but also talked a little bit about what the people are like, housing, etc.  I have a very good friend who lives right on the NH/ME border, so we have someone to help us get our bearings.  My wife also has a friend from Caribou (recently moved back), and while that is NOT an option for us, it would be a familiar face for her somewhat close by.

Basically the conversation concluded with "If you find a job out that way I am on board"

Time to go update my search parameters on Linkedin and Indeed.com!!

 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Door down at 6:05

Then the purge starts around 6:20 so front registers are not overwhelmed 

Last members out 6:35 or so and usually the person who wants to write a bad check plays on this hoping we just sign off on check to get them out.   Now, you know the rest of the story .  

 

I remember doing the sweep on a occasion. We had to up our game after a group of four teenagers hid in the steel and then ran amok that night until they go caught by the stockers. 15 years before the 24 hour challenge became a “thing.”

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Holy moly, not 3 hours after I said "I could never get my wife to the New England area" she came out and said "so, let's talk about Maine"  She had a lazy morning hanging out in bed and was doing a lot of thinking about our next steps.  

We discussed the climate alot, but also talked a little bit about what the people are like, housing, etc.  I have a very good friend who lives right on the NH/ME border, so we have someone to help us get our bearings.  My wife also has a friend from Caribou (recently moved back), and while that is NOT an option for us, it would be a familiar face for her somewhat close by.

Basically the conversation concluded with "If you find a job out that way I am on board"

Time to go update my search parameters on Linkedin and Indeed.com!!

 

Maine would be my pick was well if I ever moved to the east coast. Been watching “North Woods Law” (cameras following game wardens around) and it seems like an amazing area. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What we have learned today...

Several forum members will be moving east of the cascades after this god awful winter, it’s dry and warm at Tim’s house, very wet and coolish at my house, Costco closes at either 5 or 6pm on Sunday’s, Judas Priest dude was right, and JAYA is just as big of a weenie as the rest of us. 

Jesse's life being horrible didn’t make the grade?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse's life being horrible didn’t make the grade?

Crap I forgot that one!! Poor Jesse. 

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Holy moly, not 3 hours after I said "I could never get my wife to the New England area" she came out and said "so, let's talk about Maine"  She had a lazy morning hanging out in bed and was doing a lot of thinking about our next steps.  

We discussed the climate alot, but also talked a little bit about what the people are like, housing, etc.  I have a very good friend who lives right on the NH/ME border, so we have someone to help us get our bearings.  My wife also has a friend from Caribou (recently moved back), and while that is NOT an option for us, it would be a familiar face for her somewhat close by.

Basically the conversation concluded with "If you find a job out that way I am on board"

Time to go update my search parameters on Linkedin and Indeed.com!!

 

Don’t forget to get in the flight sim and cruise that area low and slow! Congratulations on the new search parameters!  

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Holy moly, not 3 hours after I said "I could never get my wife to the New England area" she came out and said "so, let's talk about Maine"  She had a lazy morning hanging out in bed and was doing a lot of thinking about our next steps.  

We discussed the climate alot, but also talked a little bit about what the people are like, housing, etc.  I have a very good friend who lives right on the NH/ME border, so we have someone to help us get our bearings.  My wife also has a friend from Caribou (recently moved back), and while that is NOT an option for us, it would be a familiar face for her somewhat close by.

Basically the conversation concluded with "If you find a job out that way I am on board"

Time to go update my search parameters on Linkedin and Indeed.com!!

 

It’s a sign! 

[MossMan]

I can’t even get on FB without being slapped in the face by people posting their snow fun from around the country on the different groups I am a part of. 

 

[Blizzard777]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember doing the sweep on a occasion. We had to up our game after a group of four teenagers hid in the steel and then ran amok that night until they go caught by the stockers. 15 years before the 24 hour challenge became a “thing.”

Lol, yes! I remember members spending the night!!! 
Walked in one morning with the jewelry case empty....score! 

[wxmet]

This model change hit harder than the rest. Before we were staring at model runs in the 300+ hr that would change within that time frame. This recent one seemed much more believable with the models showing something between 192hr-240hr only to pull the rug as we got closer. It’s hard to look at any long-range forecast now without wanting to roll your eyes.

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I can’t even get on FB without being slapped in the face by people posting their snow fun from around the country on the different groups I am a part of. 

That’s just sad! You may as well give yourself a paper cut and pour lemon juice on it while your scrolling