January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Would Love a neutral or weak Niño...Seems to be the only way we score anymore. 
And the 18z is going to look even worse I bet. 

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Acer said:

I didn't say anything was wrong about it.

It’s funny how the human brain works sometimes... like how that comment was default to being a negative take .

[Jesse]

38 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse's life being horrible didn’t make the grade?

I’m sure you wish it was

I also figured that you if anyone would be able to pick up on the irony in that post.

[snow drift]

Just now, wxmet said:

This model change hit harder than the rest. Before we were staring at model runs in the 300+ hr that would change within that time frame. This recent one seemed much more believable with the models showing something between 192hr-240hr only to pull the rug as we got closer. It’s hard to look at any long-range forecast now without wanting to roll your eyes.

At least we didn't get within a day or two. We get more of the same. I have a bold prediction. Next December and January won't be as mild as the last four. We aren't due anything in February through April. I can't complain about those months.

 

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would Love a neutral or weak Niño...Seems to be the only way we score anymore. 
And the 18z is going to look even worse I bet. 

Niñas are overrated. The coldest winters out this way are mostly neutrals. 

[wxmet]

5 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

At least we didn't get within a day or two. We get more of the same. I have a bold prediction. Next December and January won't be as mild as the last four. We aren't due anything in February through April. I can't complain about those months.

 

A rug pull within a day or two and @iFred might have to lock these forums down lol

[BLI snowman]

Neutral-ish ENSO hedging on the negative side or a very weak La Nina seems like our best bet nowadays for cold. 2016-17, 2013-14, and 2008-09 were all in that range. Still not a guarantee of anything fun. 2012-13 largely sucked even though it still did feature a cold January.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Neutral-ish ENSO hedging on the negative side or a very weak La Nina seems like our best bet nowadays for cold. 2016-17, 2013-14, and 2008-09 were all in that range. Still not a guarantee of anything fun. 2012-13 largely sucked even though it did feature a cold January.

I believe 2008 was a strong La Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Rather impressively it appears my streak of sub 50 highs will live another today.  It looks like today will be number 16.  Unfortunately my streak of 18 sub 40 lows appears it will come to an end today.  It only got down to 41 this morning.  Pretty chilly second half of January by recent standards.  It's still likely February will be colder than normal as well.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Rather impressively it appears my streak of sub 50 highs will live another today.  It looks like today will be number 16.  Unfortunately my streak of 18 sub 40 lows appears it will come to an end today.  It only got down to 41 this morning.  Pretty chilly second half of January by recent standards.  It's still likely February will be colder than normal as well.

I’m pretty pleased to see offshore winds hanging on here. 48 for a high so far. The warmest we’ve been since the pattern change on the 18th was that surprise 50 on the 22nd.

[MossMan]

Up to .49” on the day!! 
Temp dip back down to 44.8!!!! 
Simply amazing stuff!! 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I believe 2008 was a strong La Nina.

2007-08 was moderate.  2008-09 was weak.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Neutral-ish ENSO hedging on the negative side or a very weak La Nina seems like our best bet nowadays for cold. 2016-17, 2013-14, and 2008-09 were all in that range. Still not a guarantee of anything fun. 2012-13 largely sucked even though it still did feature a cold January.

Borderline weak cold events seem to be pretty good. The whole western part of North America has gotten warmer over the last 40 years. I sometimes wonder if an old time January is even possible in our modern climate.

[jakerepp]

I hate that I feel this way, but it’s just not worth living here anymore. Seattle is so hard to love, for so many reasons. 
 

Of course, I’m probably still at least 2 years from reasonably being able to convince the wife that we should move.

[Jesse]

48 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wouldn't a big Mt Hood storm with 60-70 gusts and heavy powder snowfall be great right about now.

You’re trying to win me over aren’t you

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I believe 2008 was a strong La Nina.

2007-08 was a higher end moderate. The following winter (the one that was good) was a very weak Nina.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Neutral-ish ENSO hedging on the negative side or a very weak La Nina seems like our best bet nowadays for cold. 2016-17, 2013-14, and 2008-09 were all in that range. Still not a guarantee of anything fun. 2012-13 largely sucked even though it still did feature a cold January.

Wasn’t 2006/07 a weak Niño? That was such a great winter! 
massive rains the fiery part of November, massive snow/Arctic blast in late November, massive windstorm in December, a very lovely Arctic outbreak with snow in January, and more snow in late February. Simply lovely! 

[snow drift]

Just now, MossMan said:

Wasn’t 2006/07 a weak Niño? That was such a great winter! 
massive rains the fiery part of November, massive snow/Arctic blast in late November, massive windstorm in December, a very lovely Arctic outbreak with snow in January, and more snow in late February. Simply lovely! 

I was thinking about that winter. It was a pretty decent winter by el niño standards. I think it was a weak warm event.

[Deweydog]

18Z ALERT-ISH!!!

[Slushy Inch]

Upcoming pattern is still in flux. It's 180hours+ out and the 18z gfs now actually has a weak trough over us on the 8th and big improvements on the 9th. This is more an line with the EPS.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Borderline weak cold events seem to be pretty good. The whole western part of North America has gotten warmer over the last 40 years. I sometimes wonder if an old time January is even possible in our modern climate.

2017 was about as close as we'll get, and in fairness that December 5-January 15 period was pretty high end. I was playing around with the numbers on xmACIS and PDX averaged 33.1F from December 9, 2016 to January 17 2017. Only 1978-79 was colder for that same period of calendar.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

2017 was about as close as we'll get, and in fairness that December 5-January 15 period was pretty high end. I was playing around with the numbers on xmACIS and PDX averaged 33.1F from December 9, 2016 to January 17 2017. Only 1978-79 was colder for that same period of calendar.

It was impressive down there. 1978-79 is the 2nd coldest winter up here. 2016-17 wasn't that cold, but we had snowcover for roughly three months. 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z is shaping up very nicely by day 9 or so.  We just have to shake off the biff this week.  We are still going to get chances as long as the MJO is favorable.  FWIW I've notice that La Nina winters that hit the NE hard have tendency to get us eventually.  1995-96  and 2010-11 are good examples.

[Slushy Inch]

Just got to fix this disgusting low placement. 00z runs could be juicy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2017 was about as close as we'll get, and in fairness that December 5-January 15 period was pretty high end. I was playing around with the numbers on xmACIS and PDX averaged 33.1F from December 9, 2016 to January 17 2017. Only 1978-79 was colder for that same period of calendar.

Pretty impressive. That December-January period was really high end east of the Cascades too. That was a low key cold December, the coldest airmass of the winter at SLE was the one in mid-December. 

There was a good period of cold onshore flow from about February 20-March 6th, after that winter was pretty much over, even up here. Our biggest snow event of the winter was March 5-6th. It was good, but not great winter for snow here, but the sustained cold was very notable. The first week of 2017 featured all sub-freezing highs, and then we had another 4-5 day streak starting on the 11th. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

It was impressive down there. 1978-79 is the 2nd coldest winter up here. 2016-17 wasn't that cold, but we had snowcover for roughly three months. 

Yeah, winters like 1978-79 and 1948-49 were still a different animal in that there was a really deep supply of cold air available for weeks on end regionally. I really don't think a result equal to that is possible nowadays, unfortunately. We'll still see some near historic level stuff in the future, but our benchmarks will continue to moderate.

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a holy sheit setup by day 10.  It's amazing how no two runs look alike right now.  The good news is the 12z and now the 18z are looking better / good again.

[MossMan]

I would have been onboard if I was around 71yrs ago. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit setup by day 10.  It's amazing how no two runs look alike right now.  The good news is the 12z and now the 18z are looking better / good again.

JAYA says nope. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The coldest average monthly low since I've lived up here was 24.7 in January 2017, the average low at Silver Falls in January 1949 was 14.4.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is solidly chilly. Honestly not putting much stock in model solutions right now, but at least it's not depressing to look at. lol

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, winters like 1978-79 and 1948-49 were still a different animal in that there was a really deep supply of cold air available for weeks on end regionally. I really don't think a result equal to that is possible nowadays, unfortunately. We'll still see some near historic level stuff in the future, but our benchmarks will continue to moderate.

January 1957 is a personal favorite of mine. What a beast!

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The coldest average monthly low since I've lived up here was 24.7 in January 2017, the average low at Silver Falls in January 1949 was 14.4.

 

 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

January 1957 is a personal favorite of mine. What a beast!

Yeah, 0/-18 day at Spokane on the 27th. PDX was 22/8. They don't make cold pools like that anymore!

[AbbyJr]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z is shaping up very nicely by day 9 or so.  We just have to shake off the biff this week.  We are still going to get chances as long as the MJO is favorable.  FWIW I've notice that La Nina winters that hit the NE hard have tendency to get us eventually.  1995-96  and 2010-11 are good examples.

This is why you never doubt the EPS.

[BLI snowman]

How's the sleet, Phil?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believe Eugene's all-time January low was in January 1957. 

18z turns downright cold in clown range. 

 

[snow_wizard]

A lot of cold weather on the 18z.  Even the biff this week will bring some chilly temps.

[snow_wizard]

The chance is still there for a big February.  Nobody really knows right now. All I can say is the chance is well above average.

[Cloud]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I would have been onboard if I was around 71yrs ago. 

10 days ago the models was on board for 10 days out. Today the 18z is onboard for 10 more days out.  Redux? Analog?