Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFSv16 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: @Clinton, you got the 06z EPS? Sorry so late on this. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, St Paul Storm said: Latest model runs lifting the heavier axis of snow a bit father north. Now reaching parts of the TC. Liking the trends this morning. Good chance at reaching the higher end of the forecasted amounts. Looks like Ramsey County has been dropped to 3-5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: Sorry so late on this. I would say this looks very realistic for what will occur. I will then bank on adding more beyond 84 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 To my surprise it's ripping pretty well out there. Radar is building to the South. 17*F. Good luck to Nebraska and Iowa people. Wish I could get more out of this, but it's impossible with January climo. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Canadian has 20” for Omaha and 30” for southern Iowa. A foot for Cedar Rapids and Iowa city 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 SW/SC Iowa appears to be a great place to be. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z Canadian. Pretty large area of 1-2’ through 96 hours. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...holding steady for N IL and the Lower Lakes region...it does appear that the wave weakens as it heads farther east but is slow to exit the region and hangs back some precip over the area which allows for farther accumulation. This system is loaded with precip. Snowfall totals for N IL bumped up a bit more and possibly due to colder 850's/2m temps. I did notice that the 2m temps don't get above 30F for the duration of the event for Chicago and nearly 30+ hours of NE winds off the lake. This is shaping up to be one of those golden storm opportunities that tap into multiple ways for maximum snow potential into NE IL. For example, this run shows it snowing for 30+ hrs into NE IL and allows for maximum Lehs/LES. I understand this is just 1 run but the consistency is keeping me excited about the potential. Been a while since many of us around here enjoyed a legit winter storm. 00z Euro Control... 00z EPS...trending towards a more widespread significant winter storm from the Plains to the Lakes...#sharethewealth Great trends. Poster child storm wrt sharing the wealth. Some say GHD-2 also showed weakening east at this range but in the end held together. Models giving my office every reason to not go Watch tho as usual. Kinda like 11-26-18 with Bliz Warn to Chicago then WWA for mby. 1 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I had family visiting so I've been kind of playing catch up and it's surreal to see models showing such crazy amounts 2 days out. Things look to be falling into an 8"+ consensus for SE Neb except for the GFS. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 UK is a bit south. The northern stream presses south a bit more this run. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Definitely more has fallen than the originally forecasted trace. 4 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 8.6" SREF mean for KLNK through Tuesday. Though that includes 1.6" today which I've been kind of ignoring and forgetting about. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 This may be the best ICON map I have personally seen for this area since it became a global we look at/include in tracking. This is stout at 10:1 which seems to be the target ratio (mean) for the event as a whole. The Operationals continue to paint Warning level totals, but ofc the Ensemble Means look paltry by comparison. My office likes to pin storm numbers down way in advance for some reason that escapes me while LOT will take more of a wait and see approach. Much better way to go imo. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, james1976 said: Looks like Ramsey County has been dropped to 3-5" I’ve had 4-6” in my point since yesterday. But whatever the amount, it’s gonna snow and that’s a good thing! Enjoy it buddy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaster220 said: This may be the best ICON map I have personally seen for this area since it became a global we look at/include in tracking. This is stout at 10:1 which seems to be the target ratio (mean) for the event as a whole. The Operationals continue to paint Warning level totals, but ofc the Ensemble Means look paltry by comparison. My office likes to pin storm numbers down way in advance for some reason that escapes me while LOT will take more of a wait and see approach. Much better way to go imo. Happy for you, Jaster. You’ve been patiently waiting for what seems like forever! I hope this pans out for you! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I had family visiting so I've been kind of playing catch up and it's surreal to see models showing such crazy amounts 2 days out. Things look to be falling into an 8"+ consensus for SE Neb except for the GFS. SE Nebraska Peeps look to be fully in this game and maybe even end up doing better than SMI Peeps. Really surprised y'all weren't following this more closely from the beginning. Has potential to be a doozy there imho. GFS is not that bad over there either, especially the GEFS. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: SE Nebraska Peeps look to be fully in this game and maybe even end up doing better than SMI Peeps. Really surprised y'all weren't following this more closely from the beginning. Has potential to be a doozy there imho. GFS is not that bad over there either, especially the GEFS. Yeah I've been checking the board but hardly looked at models myself. Somebody mentioned this yesterday but I'd be surprised if OAX doesn't post watches with the afternoon package. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, St Paul Storm said: Happy for you, Jaster. You’ve been patiently waiting for what seems like forever! I hope this pans out for you! Thx SPS. Not so sure about the "patiently" part, lol. But yeah, waiting 3 years for a legit Watch to Warning event seems like forever tho I do realize others in our Sub have been there too. Not even sure at this point if we will get into a Watch with my office's history. Will easily be the first decent snow here this entire season tho, so there's that to look forward to as Iowa goes under a state of emergency and Chicago rakes. Oh well, we had 08-09 and 13-14 and I have no right to be selfish, it's just human snow weenie nature I guess. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I hate my city in the winter. Through 384 hours, there's four near misses to the north and south. Isn't KC in the decent snow swath on many if not most models? I thought it was. Maybe I need to get out a map Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Man this is looking like a heck of a storm out here. Could even be 12-15” in the max band. Not sure that’s CR/IC but probably just south of us as we are starting to reach a pretty tight track consensus. That said, gusts to 40-45 mph seem likely for most of the event, and combined with heavy snow, should allow blizzard criteria to be met for many in Iowa/perhaps N IL as well. Assuming watches will be hoisted in the afternoon package? Looking more and more like the highest impact winter event in DVN’s CWA since 11/25/18. 1 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well this is a change of tone lol Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1100 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 MNZ002-003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-232300- Norman-Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard- West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail- Wadena-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 1100 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 ...Accumulating Snowfall Today... Moderate snowfall rates across the region will lead to snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Travel impacts are possible due to slick roads and reduced visibility. 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Went and got gas. My gosh it’s cold. 22 degrees with an east wind of 20. It has that feel of a storm coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 UKIE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx SPS. Not so sure about the "patiently" part, lol. But yeah, waiting 3 years for a legit Watch to Warning event seems like forever tho I do realize others in our Sub have been there too. Not even sure at this point if we will get into a Watch with my office's history. Will easily be the first decent snow here this entire season tho, so there's that to look forward to as Iowa goes under a state of emergency and Chicago rakes. Oh well, we had 08-09 and 13-14 and I have no right to be selfish, it's just human snow weenie nature I guess. good luck jaster. Looks like I will be on the northern fringe of this one, though any subtle shifts north could put me in the game for more substantial amounts 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 There's a fluffy inch down now. Of course because it's North Dakota, some spots have 0" while others have 5". I'll easily make a run at 2" judging by radar. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UKIE Gotta love that high pressure to the north keeping it out of mby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Advisory out for up to 1" snow and 1/10" ice. Hope that ice doesn't verify. Never felt great about this one, but it would be nice to have a 1-2" base before Monday. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro is weak sauce for Iowa with wave 1. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Hawkeye said: Euro is weak sauce for Iowa with wave 1. I'll gladly take the 1" tonight in exchange for a foot on Monday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Omaha update from a bit ago. I’m about 8 miles north of I80. I’d definitely feel better if I was further south in southeast Nebraska 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Both NAMs had a couple tenths of an inch here today, the rest of the models had absolutely nothing. To say models shat the bed here would be an understatement. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 no major changes on the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro looking good so far 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Omaha update from a bit ago. I’m about 8 miles north of I80. I’d definitely feel better if I was further south in southeast Nebraska I'm about half a mile NW of I-80. Game over for me . But I think we should be fine. 12z Euro looks to be coming in hot once again, though bullseye is around Nebraska City/Plattsmouth. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like qpf is amped up from 00z, but track is very similar. Maybe slightly further north, especially on the north end of the snow shield. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Hate to throw around Kuchera bc it's probably overdone, but..... I would hate to be sitting in Norfolk right now. 3 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, snowstorm83 said: Hate to throw around Kuchera bc it's probably overdone, but..... I would hate to be sitting in Norfolk right now. Yeah. The Euro maps that most of us post is 10:1 so those amounts are great for both. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Subtract an inch for IC and CR. Euro has been rock steady for a couple days now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Michigan gets hosed on the Euro. The precip shield collapses before reaching them. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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