BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gonna be a nowcast for here in EIA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good luck to you all! Hopefully you can score big and continue to build the glacier! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro really cutting back the snow totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Man the 00z models are warm. Gonna need to lower my Iowa City call to 2". Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 4” would be a best case scenario at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The GFS with a coup d'etat on this system? It sure seems that way... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Graupel/sleeting here in Des Moines. Strange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: The GFS with a coup d'etat on this system? It sure seems that way... IF...it's correct out there I'm hoping it's depiction of more snow here is correct too. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS will likely end up being right but for the wrong reasons. The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yup, that same WAA is actually going to make freezing drizzle an issue here. I'm under a WWA for up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z Euro...the spotty nature on the snow map below really does highlight what should be convective snows. A lot of those who have been missed to the south in IL/IN should score bigly with this system. Have the tides turned? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z EPS...it keeps on increasing snow totals as we approach "showtime"...it's looking better for @jaster220and the rest of the S MI crew...my gut feeling for our S MI peeps to look for that bump NE with the expansive/broad precip shield. This system has a lot of juice and could very well throw a last minute bone for ya'll. When was the last time we saw a winter storm hit the S MW/OHV in tandem?? Geeze, gotta be years ago. Maybe the last time was during the Feb '18 snow blitz??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 There’s always a curveball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z GEFS...eye candy for N IL/IN folks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z UKIE... NWS NDFD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 D**n, SREF ORD plume up to a 11" mean...MKE 8" mean...GRR 4"...DTW 6"...FWA 8" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 06z GFS...Chitown = Bullseye...old GFS playing catch up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersno Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good luck Tom! Enjoy the weekend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: 06z GFS...Chitown = Bullseye...old GFS playing catch up... LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still on track for at least 3", we shall see! 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, ChiTownWeather said: LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement. From last night’s Twitter discussion: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I honestly don’t know what to expect. My place is smack dab in the middle of linn county. Which seems to be the line of better snow accumulations on most models. I’m gonna see a mixed bag for sure, just hoping I get a good changeover time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 50 minutes ago, ChiTownWeather said: LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement. Ya, I don’t think these lollipop totals end up verifying. I’m using them as guidance to suggest the heaviest snows may fall in NE IL across N IL. If we would have had a true Arctic connection, then it’s a different story. This is a marginal set up. Last storm was similar and while there was some Lehs, it wasnt overwhelming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 06z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like I will be getting the "Extra Bonus" snow on Monday and possibly into Tuesday b4 all set and done. Lake Huron will provide the goods here from that northerly component coming straight down mby and other eastern locales. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 DVN NWS is siding with the NAM and GFS. Their snow map says 2-5” for Iowa city. And the winter weather advisory says 1-3”. So no consistency in their own forecast. HRRR runs have been showing 3-4” for Iowa City and CR. So still no clue what to expect. The AFD explained nothing about the massive model differences. I find it hard to believe the Euro is this wrong. But we’ll see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 DMX still thinking there is a chance over Central Iowa. Winds become more northerly by this evening as the low swings northeast across MO into IL. This will bring cooler air back into the area and eventually lead to a transition over to snow. Models have honed in on a dominant mid-level deformation axis developing over central Iowa, mainly along and east of I-35. This will be the favored zone for accumulating snowfall Saturday night possibly lingering into Sunday morning. For the most part snow amounts are generally in the 2-4" range, but some hi-res models suggest isolated pockets of 4-6" cannot be ruled out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 We are starting out fairly mild, and there is plenty of above-freezing air on our doorstep, so I'm going into this expected rain and mix, plus 2-3" of wet snow. Update: Of course, the 12z NAMs are suddenly going a bit colder and snowier again. However, this simply lifts the NAMs snow up a bit to where other models are. 2-4" seems a good bet across east-central Iowa. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z NAM and 3kNAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I was just reading through LOT's Twitter discussion last night - I am amazed at how many people said, "How much snow will we get in _________?" And then they'd tell them and post the snowfall map - again and again and again. LOL. They must have had the patience of saints last night. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, here we are on Jan 30 and this morning I have moderate to heavy rain and a temp of 51F. Oh Winter...where have you gone? 2 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z GFSv16...keep looking more impressive...someone is going to get clobbered... 12z GFS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Tomgood luck! You're sitting in a great spot. I'm still in a warning but ill be surprised if I even get 2 or 3 inches. Bad thermals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, james1976 said: @Tomgood luck! You're sitting in a great spot. I'm still in a warning but ill be surprised if I even get 2 or 3 inches. Bad thermals. Thanks bud! I’m looking forward to seeing the wall of snow and winds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m still in the 8-10 zone out here but I will believe it when I see it. Been on that rain/bust line the past 2 snows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 SMI is looking juicier, especially, eastern side. I guess models are seeing the goods coming from "Lake Huron" starting Mon and Tues. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 UK bumped totals to 6” in Iowa city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GFSv16...keep looking more impressive...someone is going to get clobbered... 12z GFS... Snow Blowers Gassed up check! Sleds taken down from the addict Check! Winter Ski gear layed out and ready for the kids check! I think I'm more exited then my kids LMAO 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Local met still has 4-8 for most of central-eastern iowa 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.