December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[antipex]

12z GFS shows strong winds for the Oregon coast with a strong but weakening and baggy low.  Gradient never lines up for the valley, but we shall see. 

 

Is it just me or is the GFS trending north with this compared to previous runs?

[Jesse]

The Euro pushes most of the energy south.

 

Cali needs it more than we do anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then there's this...

 

Oh wow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cali needs it more than we do anyway.

 

Its not necessarily a bad thing if the jet is pointed to our south. Obviously a suppressed jet can lead to great things. The question is moreso is it a suppressed consolidated jet or is it a splitty pattern shunting moisture south. The latter seems more likely IMO.

[Deweydog]

Then there's this...

 

Unfortunate that low doesn't have a lot of jet support.  The track is money.  

[Jesse]

Its not necessarily a bad thing if the jet is pointed to our south. Obviously a suppressed jet can lead to great things. The question is moreso is it a suppressed consolidated jet or is it a splitty pattern shunting moisture south. The latter seems more likely IMO.

 

I

 

Maybe in January?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Unfortunate that low doesn't have a lot of jet support.  The track is money.  

Yeah it could be a real Jim dandy.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is it just me or is the GFS trending north with this compared to previous runs?

It appears so... It looks like the low is wanting to push much further to the north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I

 

Maybe in January?

 

You never know. At this point the similarities between 2002-03 and 2004-05 are really starting to emerge. Doesn't mean something big can't happen (See January 2005 near miss.), but its going to be tough.

[Jesse]

You never know. At this point the similarities between 2002-03 and 2004-05 are really starting to emerge. Doesn't mean something big can't happen (See January 2005 near miss.), but its going to be tough.

Keep managing those expectations!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its still early, but looking at long range models and the trends that are starting to emerge I am really starting to think that the chances of a major regional arctic blast are fairly low. It could still happen, but at this point I'm not feeling it. I think the most likely scenario is that the highlight of the upcoming winter is something more similar to a January 2013 or late December/early January 2010/11 type event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Keep managing those expectations!

 

 

Its not really that. Its about looking at what is going on with the pattern and comparing it to what we would typically see in a +PDO, +ENSO regime, etc...

 

Its fairly likely that we are starting to trend toward what our winter is going to be like. I think if we do have an arctic outbreak it will be kind of a one shot deal and highly anomalous compared to our winter as a whole. A big time cold month just probably isn't in the cards this year. 

[MossMan]

Its still early, but looking at long range models and the trends that are starting to emerge I am really starting to think that the chances of a major regional arctic blast are fairly low. It could still happen, but at this point I'm not feeling it. I think the most likely scenario is that the highlight of the upcoming winter is something more similar to a January 2013 or late December/early January 2010/11 type event. 

Seeing how it is only December 8th, and how quickly both arctic events in November snuck up on us...personally I am not ruling anything out just yet. I am not even going to rule out a white Christmas yet.

[IbrChris]

Just cleaned up several pages of posts. Please don't let this get out of hand again, keep it to PM or to yourself if your "back-and-fourth" cannot contain itself in its own thread. If I have to pull this Weather Forum over, I will restrict posting for some members to their respective regional forums.

 

Also, please keep the posts in the Pacific Northwest Observational thread to topics that have a geographic relation to the Pacific Northwest. Again, a handful of off topic posts are fine, but images without context and a description riddled with acronyms doesn't help anyone and just makes you look like an a**. At least Kevin Martin would show how his Megablizzardwarning forecast would impact the frightened populous of the Northwest. Not a nondescript model and "uh oh".

Ya it got a little tangential yesterday, sorry about that. Thanks for the post juggling.

[Alex_Snakes]

It's going to be wet. Perhaps windy.

 

STORM NUMBER 3...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE TRACK OF PERHAPS
THE STRONGEST STORM THIS WEEK. THE 00/12Z MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALMOST DUE NWD
UP THE PAC NW COAST. THIS IS NEARLY A PERFECT WINDSTORM TRAJECTORY
FOR PUGET SOUND AND ALSO SURROUNDING LOWLANDS EXTENDING FROM WRN OR
UP TO WRN WA. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH INTO DETAILS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OUT AT DAY 4. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM...WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TREAT TOWARD THE THURSDAY PERIOD.
MERCER

 

At least there is something to watch. Don't want anything damaging though.

[IbrChris]

I respect your views and appreciate the discussion. There's a reason the 3-6 week period is often called "no mans land" in sub-seasonal forecasting.

 

It's been my goal to break through that barrier for awhile now.

I appreciate the back-and-forth as well. There are always things we can learn from others and I am always interested in other people's take on the pattern evolution.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's going to be wet. Perhaps windy.

 

STORM NUMBER 3...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE TRACK OF PERHAPS

THE STRONGEST STORM THIS WEEK. THE 00/12Z MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED

FURTHER NORTH WITH A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALMOST DUE NWD

UP THE PAC NW COAST. THIS IS NEARLY A PERFECT WINDSTORM TRAJECTORY

FOR PUGET SOUND AND ALSO SURROUNDING LOWLANDS EXTENDING FROM WRN OR

UP TO WRN WA. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH INTO DETAILS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH

DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OUT AT DAY 4. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL

MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM...WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER

STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TREAT TOWARD THE THURSDAY PERIOD.

MERCER

 

At least there is something to watch. Don't want anything damaging though.

Nice to see this from the NWS... When I saw the track of the low on the 12z GFS this morning my cackles got raised a bit for the potential of a wind event for us Washingtonians. Often after a atmospheric river and wind event we see the return of cold to our area. NOT to say this is the case this time but this stuff does sneak up on us. I watch for setups just like this as precursors for something more wintery, even if it is just for snow in the mountains and lowering snow levels.

[IbrChris]

00z GFS looked terrific w.r.t. a Willamette Valley windstorm, unfortunately it was mainly the GFS with little support from the Euro. This morning's GFS looks much less favorable although 40-45 kt gusts would still be possible EUG-UAO. Coast looks to see gusts 55-60 kts, higher on headlands. Might rival October's event.

[ShawniganLake]

Its still early, but looking at long range models and the trends that are starting to emerge I am really starting to think that the chances of a major regional arctic blast are fairly low. It could still happen, but at this point I'm not feeling it. I think the most likely scenario is that the highlight of the upcoming winter is something more similar to a January 2013 or late December/early January 2010/11 type event. 

If we cant manage something better than January 2013, I will be shocked and disappointed.  I had to go back and look that month up, I had erased it from my memory. 

[Alex_Snakes]

00z GFS looked terrific w.r.t. a Willamette Valley windstorm, unfortunately it was mainly the GFS with little support from the Euro. This morning's GFS looks much less favorable although 40-45 kt gusts would still be possible EUG-UAO. Coast looks to see gusts 55-60 kts, higher on headlands. Might rival October's event.

 

Yeah, nothing like this on the Euro. I guess it still has to be mentioned even if remote.

[stuffradio]

If we cant manage something better than January 2013, I will be shocked and disappointed.  I had to go back and look that month up, I had erased it from my memory. 

Jan 2012 would be sweet. I got a foot of snow that month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan 2012 would be sweet. I got a foot of snow that month.

That was during a negative pdo and enso. Highly unlikely we see that occur this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we cant manage something better than January 2013, I will be shocked and disappointed. I had to go back and look that month up, I had erased it from my memory.

We could do a lot worse than January 2013.

[stuffradio]

That was during a negative pdo and enso. Highly unlikely we see that occur this year.

Stop disappointing me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stop disappointing me.

It's what I do.

[Jesse]

Its not really that. Its about looking at what is going on with the pattern and comparing it to what we would typically see in a +PDO, +ENSO regime, etc...

 

Its fairly likely that we are starting to trend toward what our winter is going to be like. I think if we do have an arctic outbreak it will be kind of a one shot deal and highly anomalous compared to our winter as a whole. A big time cold month just probably isn't in the cards this year. 

 

Keep managing those expectations!

[BLI snowman]

61 at BLI. Only three days in December have been warmer.

[Jesse]

61 at BLI. Only three days in December have been warmer.

 

Looks like they were as high as 62 earlier.

[WS Snow]

This sub-tropical moisture/torch is a major downer. Hopefully, a cold snap is around the corner soon. Trying to remember the last time Seattle/Tacoma had over 3-4 inches on the ground that lasted more than 24 hours... haven't used the real sled in about a decade.

[Deweydog]

This sub-tropical moisture/torch is a major downer. Hopefully, a cold snap is around the corner soon. Trying to remember the last time Seattle/Tacoma had over 3-4 inches on the ground that lasted more than 24 hours... haven't used the real sled in about a decade.

 

I don't recall it ever happening.  Definitely not within the last decade, as you said.  

[MossMan]

This sub-tropical moisture/torch is a major downer. Hopefully, a cold snap is around the corner soon. Trying to remember the last time Seattle/Tacoma had over 3-4 inches on the ground that lasted more than 24 hours... haven't used the real sled in about a decade.

You didn't have sled worthy snow in Dec 2008, or Jan 2012? Even my 2" of sled worthy snow a few weeks ago lasted 5 days!

The atmospheric River/potential windstorm this week is a positive if you want cold weather in a few weeks in my opinion!

[bainbridgekid]

Need that bad. Olympics up here are bare almost.

Absolutely.

 

It's pretty rare to see Hurricane Ridge (5,242 feet) completely snowless as we move into Mid-December.

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?2014118155045

[WS Snow]

^{Definitely did in December 2008.  One of the best storms I can remember in the greater Metro area.  I live in West Seattle.  It just seems like the past few years we receive a quick, wet 1/2 inch that doesn't stick in the streets and warms up rapidly the next day. I'm not greedy--just want a 2-3 inch event that lasts 48 hours or more so I can take my daughter sledding and enjoy it around for a few days...the Metro area has been a major snow bust for some time. We are overdue.}

[bainbridgekid]

^{Definitely did in December 2008.  One of the best storms I can remember in the greater Metro area.  I live in West Seattle.  It just seems like the past few years we receive a quick, wet 1/2 inch that doesn't stick in the streets and warms up rapidly the next day. I'm not greedy--just want a 2-3 inch event that lasts 48 hours or more so I can take my daughter sledding and enjoy it around for a few days...the Metro area has been a major snow bust for some time. We are overdue.}

December 2008, November 2010, and January 2012 all easily met that criteria in Seattle.

 

Granted, that's 3 times in 6 years so I understand your frustration, but that's our climate for you.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like they were as high as 62 earlier.

 

Yeah, record for the month is 63. So close.

[Tyler Mode]

Last February was good for the PDX metro...

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Snowy-February-2014/i-7MCcRdv/0/L/32.%20G%20Snowy%20Front%20Yard%20NIght-L.jpg

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Snowy-February-2014/i-6PMMCwp/0/L/120.%20G%20Frontyard%20Misty-L.jpg

[Skagit Weather]

61 at BLI. Only three days in December have been warmer.

 

Record also set at Boeing Field of 60 [59 in 1957].

 

61 here, 9 degrees warmer than the highs from either of the last two Decembers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last February was good for the PDX metro...

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Snowy-February-2014/i-7MCcRdv/0/L/32.%20G%20Snowy%20Front%20Yard%20NIght-L.jpg

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Snowy-February-2014/i-6PMMCwp/0/L/120.%20G%20Frontyard%20Misty-L.jpg

 

Yes it was.

[Skagit Weather]

Things aren't all bad. It isn't everyday that we have five weather warnings going simultaneously.

 

Up here we have a

 

Coastal Flood Advisory

Wind Advisory

Flood Watch

High Wind Watch

Special Weather Statement

 

If we really get as much precipitation as the models are forecasting there will be some major flooding on the Skagit and other local rivers.

[Deweydog]

Yes it was.

I agree.