stuffradio Posted December 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Trees will start blooming up north soon at this rate. It needs several weeks like that to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 High Wind Warning for Portland and all of Western Oregon and SW Washington. Pretty bullish. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014ORZ005>008-010-012-WAZ022-039-040-110345-/O.UPG.KPQR.HW.A.0015.141211T1200Z-141212T0300Z//O.NEW.KPQR.HW.W.0016.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FORTHE WILLAMETTE VALLEY PORTLAND METRO AREA AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE HIGHWIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AMTO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.* WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPHPOSSIBLE. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS.* TIMING: WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHVALLEY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE PORTLAND METRO AND LOWERCOLUMBIA.* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...ST. HELENS...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR...SANDY...SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO* IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR RESULTING INSTRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINE ISSUES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMSFOR TRUCKS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event.Careful, you're gonna get put on mod-preview for this kind of talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 This heat is depressing. Or maybe its the rain. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 High Wind Warning for Portland and all of Western Oregon and SW Washington. Pretty bullish. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014 ORZ005>008-010-012-WAZ022-039-040-110345-/O.UPG.KPQR.HW.A.0015.141211T1200Z-141212T0300Z//O.NEW.KPQR.HW.W.0016.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FORTHE WILLAMETTE VALLEY PORTLAND METRO AREA AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE HIGHWIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AMTO 10 PM PST THURSDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPHPOSSIBLE. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS. * TIMING: WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHVALLEY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE PORTLAND METRO AND LOWERCOLUMBIA. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...ST. HELENS...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR...SANDY...SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO * IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR RESULTING INSTRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINE ISSUES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMSFOR TRUCKS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. And then its going to snow 4-8"? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 This kind of stuff just gets old. There is a current reading of 68 degrees near the international district right on the Duwamish. We might as well make a run for 70 degrees today. Just waiting for the slew of articles to come out about global warming arriving early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think this is going to be run of the mill. Sure looks to me like a monster gunna take shape here real soon by looking at the sat. And it is a classic trajectory. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 There is a current reading of 68 degrees near the international district right on the Duwamish. We might as well make a run for 70 degrees today. Just waiting for the slew of articles to come out about global warming arriving early.I would think that this is late if anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think this is going to be run of the mill. Sure looks to me like a monster gunna take shape here real soon by looking at the sat. And it is a classic trajectory. I agree, the it's taking the classic path up the coastline. This Sou'Wester will be stronger than the one in October that produced 49 mph peak gust at PDX and 51 mph at SLE. I am reserving judgement until I see the upcoming 00z runs tonight but as of right now I am thinking up to 65-70 mph peak wind gust in the Willamette Valley/SW Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Roasting in Seattle, but it's dumping snow at Whistler at least. I won't be there until March, but it's nice to look at some snow in this subtropical weather! http://snow.whistler-blackcomb.com/whistlercam/roundhouse2.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Roasting in Seattle, but it's dumping snow at Whistler at least. I won't be there until March, but it's nice to look at some snow in this subtropical weather! Ya but that is at RoundHouse Lodge (nearly 6,000 feet). Even there the temp is reading at around 34 degrees. Currently it is raining at 5500 ft, and at the base around 2200 ft. I guess I should be happy it is snowing a little somewhere. At times like these I wish the average ski resort in the Cascade/Coastal range was around 8K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Give it 4-5 million years. Yakima Tribe could have allowed developers to make a ski lift to the top of the summit of Adams. Would have been open year around. On second thought that would suck. If you want to ski big lines, get a backcountry set up. I'd be cool with one really great resort more in the interior of the North Cascades, but the enviromental impacts, and maintenance would be expensive. A truly world class resort could be there if the money and time were invested. I'm against over development of ski resorts (I.E. Colorado). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters!Followed up by: "When SE Suckers fail"... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Followed up by: "When SE Suckers fail"... Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters! Why y'all hatin' on folks from the South East? Raining in McMinnville. Really started come down after 11 a.m. "Sultry" morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Ya but that is at RoundHouse Lodge (nearly 6,000 feet). Even there the temp is reading at around 34 degrees. Currently it is raining at 5500 ft, and at the base around 2200 ft. I guess I should be happy it is snowing a little somewhere. At times like these I wish the average ski resort in the Cascade/Coastal range was around 8K. Saw that but I was surprised it was even snowing at all. I expected a depressing scene even up there but it was really nice to see some big flakes coming down. Was up there skiing at the end of May last year and it was snowing at the top 1,000 feet or so on Blackcomb. The summit is about the same elevation as Crystal's as I'm sure you know but that few hundred miles north makes all the difference sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event.I must have missed something. Links please to your analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 CFS update??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 CFS update???Pretty much all the cold goes east of the Rockies through mid January. Hasn't looked good for the last few days at least. Jim will be unhappy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yakima Tribe could have allowed developers to make a ski lift to the top of the summit of Adams. Would have been open year around. On second thought that would suck. If you want to ski big lines, get a backcountry set up. I'd be cool with one really great resort more in the interior of the North Cascades, but the enviromental impacts, and maintenance would be expensive. A truly world class resort could be there if the money and time were invested. I'm against over development of ski resorts (I.E. Colorado). Yikes. I would hate to see spots like Mount Adams or the North Cascades house major ski resorts. Our mid-elevation front country ones usually are just fine. Not every year can be a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Pretty much all the cold goes east of the Rockies through mid January. Hasn't looked good for the last few days at least. Jim will be unhappy.That would be terrible news if the CFS was ever accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 That would be terrible news if the CFS was ever accurate.I know. Just double checked, and actually the Jan 8-11 period has a nice arctic outbreak. That's a relief. Also, It is showing a 6 day blizzard for the second half of February. Its hour 1800, so its not a lock yet, but its something to watch. http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/CFS_Model_2.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I know. Just double checked, and actually the Jan 8-11 period has a nice arctic outbreak. That's a relief. Also, It is showing a 6 day blizzard for the second half of February. Its hour 1800, so its not a lock yet, but its something to watch. http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/CFS_Model_2.html lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 66 (at least) at SEA and BLI today. Just unbelievable. Meanwhile 47 so far out here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Those in glass houses... I think he contributes a lot more to the forum than some.Of course he does. He is a pretty knowledgeable guy. Just a little guilty of wish casting from time to time, but he is an important part of the forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December? There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December? There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.Precedent? It's just a super warm version of a typical warm pattern. Typically there isn't much opportunity for adiabatic drying in these patterns in the affected areas because it's really wet. Everything is changing. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I must have missed something. Links please to your analysis. Sure thing. This is the most recent highest resolution MM5 run http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d4_wgsfc+//84/3 A small area of 50kt gusts is the highest it gets in western OR, most places are 25-35kts. For all intents and purposes that is a near non event. Run-of-the-mill. For western WA of course it's even weaker and wind gusts are unlikely to be much stronger than they were today. Nothing at all is pointing towards a noteworthy windstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 McMinnville...Intense band of rain moving through the area. Gusts to 24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December? There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well. Late December 1980 is still the king of December torches. That and late December 1917 still stand out above this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Late December 1980 is still the king of December torches. That and late December 1917 still stand out above this. Too bad the east wind is relentless in the Portland area – it hasn't really been above mid-50s here for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Wind is picking up here. Pretty breezy. Should be a good dress rehearsal for tomorrow's pretty breeze. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think tomorrow is going to be exciting. Non-event. Incredibly boring. Am I cool now? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Sure thing. This is the most recent highest resolution MM5 run http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d4_wgsfc+//84/3 A small area of 50kt gusts is the highest it gets in western OR, most places are 25-35kts. For all intents and purposes that is a near non event. Run-of-the-mill. For western WA of course it's even weaker and wind gusts are unlikely to be much stronger than they were today. Nothing at all is pointing towards a noteworthy windstorm.To be fair, that is the furthest offshore/North of any model and brings the low in near Central Vancouver Island. The 18z brings the low to the tip of the Olympic Penninsula which would increase winds. I don't see this being a monster windstorm or anything, but it could definitely be more than run-of-the-mill depending on your definition of that term. Going to be all about the specific track. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121018/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_6.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 Oakland and San Francisco schools have decided to close tomorrow ahead of this storm. Apparently a few years of drought really wussifies you. 4 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2014 Report Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think tomorrow is going to be exciting. Non-event. Incredibly boring. Am I cool now? Good, honest and objective analysis is ALWAYS cool and in style. The Fonz taught us that in scripture. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Oakland and San Francisco schools have decided to close tomorrow ahead of this storm. Apparently a few years of drought really wussifies you. That's pretty goofy, although I remember them going absolutely bonkers down there during the 12-12-95 storm. That was a completely different beast, of course. Dynamics down there are much better, though. An actual triple point with good jet support and such... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 BLI ended up with a high of 67 today. 4 degrees above the previous record for Dec. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 BLI ended up with a high of 67 today. 4 degrees above the previous record for Dec. I'm calling SeaTac shenanigans on that . 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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