December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Trees will start blooming up north soon at this rate.

It needs several weeks like that to happen.

[BLI snowman]

I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event.

[bainbridgekid]

High Wind Warning for Portland and all of Western Oregon and SW Washington.

 

Pretty bullish.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

ORZ005>008-010-012-WAZ022-039-040-110345-
/O.UPG.KPQR.HW.A.0015.141211T1200Z-141212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPQR.HW.W.0016.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/
LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...
OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...
EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SWEET HOME...
COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...
CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR
1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY PORTLAND METRO AREA AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS.

* TIMING: WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
VALLEY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE PORTLAND METRO AND LOWER
COLUMBIA.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...
WASHOUGAL...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SALEM...
MCMINNVILLE...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...
TROUTDALE...ST. HELENS...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR...SANDY...
SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO

* IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR RESULTING IN
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINE ISSUES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
FOR TRUCKS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

[Jesse]

I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event.

Careful, you're gonna get put on mod-preview for this kind of talk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This heat is depressing. Or maybe its the rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High Wind Warning for Portland and all of Western Oregon and SW Washington.

 

Pretty bullish.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR

1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

 

ORZ005>008-010-012-WAZ022-039-040-110345-

/O.UPG.KPQR.HW.A.0015.141211T1200Z-141212T0300Z/

/O.NEW.KPQR.HW.W.0016.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/

LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-

CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-

NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-

CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-

GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...

OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...

EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SWEET HOME...

COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...

CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR

1134 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR

THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY PORTLAND METRO AREA AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH

WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM

TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.

 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH

POSSIBLE. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS.

 

* TIMING: WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTH

VALLEY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE PORTLAND METRO AND LOWER

COLUMBIA.

 

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...

WASHOUGAL...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SALEM...

MCMINNVILLE...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...

TROUTDALE...ST. HELENS...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR...SANDY...

SWEET HOME...COTTAGE GROVE...LONGVIEW...KELSO

 

* IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR RESULTING IN

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER

LINE ISSUES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS

FOR TRUCKS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

 

And then its going to snow 4-8"?

[HighlandExperience]

This kind of stuff just gets old.

 

There is a current reading of 68 degrees near the international district right on the Duwamish. We might as well make a run for 70 degrees today.

 

Just waiting for the slew of articles to come out about global warming arriving early.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't think this is going to be run of the mill. Sure looks to me like a monster gunna take shape here real soon by looking at the sat. And it is a classic trajectory.

[Jesse]

There is a current reading of 68 degrees near the international district right on the Duwamish. We might as well make a run for 70 degrees today.

 

Just waiting for the slew of articles to come out about global warming arriving early.

I would think that this is late if anything.

[Snow]

I don't think this is going to be run of the mill. Sure looks to me like a monster gunna take shape here real soon by looking at the sat. And it is a classic trajectory.

 

I agree, the it's taking the classic path up the coastline. This Sou'Wester will be stronger than the one in October that produced 49 mph peak gust at PDX and 51 mph at SLE. I am reserving judgement until I see the upcoming 00z runs tonight but as of right now I am thinking up to 65-70 mph peak wind gust in the Willamette Valley/SW Washington.

[pscz1140]

Roasting in Seattle, but it's dumping snow at Whistler at least. I won't be there until March, but it's nice to look at some snow in this subtropical weather!

 

http://snow.whistler-blackcomb.com/whistlercam/roundhouse2.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Roasting in Seattle, but it's dumping snow at Whistler at least. I won't be there until March, but it's nice to look at some snow in this subtropical weather!

 

 

Ya but that is at RoundHouse Lodge (nearly 6,000 feet). Even there the temp is reading at around 34 degrees.

 

Currently it is raining at 5500 ft, and at the base around 2200 ft. I guess I should be happy it is snowing a little somewhere. 

 

At times like these I wish the average ski resort in the Cascade/Coastal range was around 8K. 

[HighlandExperience]

Give it 4-5 million years.

 

Yakima Tribe could have allowed developers to make a ski lift to the top of the summit of Adams.

 

Would have been open year around. On second thought that would suck. If you want to ski big lines, get a backcountry set up. I'd be cool with one really great resort more in the interior of the North Cascades, but the enviromental impacts, and maintenance would be expensive. A truly world class resort could be there if the money and time were invested.

 

I'm against over development of ski resorts (I.E. Colorado).   

[Deweydog]

Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters!

Followed up by: "When SE Suckers fail"... 

[chinook]

Followed up by: "When SE Suckers fail"... 

 

Tonight on FOX... Downsloping SE sucker distasters!

 

Why y'all hatin' on folks from the South East?

 

 

Raining in McMinnville.  Really started come down after 11 a.m. 

 

"Sultry" morning.

[pscz1140]

Ya but that is at RoundHouse Lodge (nearly 6,000 feet). Even there the temp is reading at around 34 degrees.

 

Currently it is raining at 5500 ft, and at the base around 2200 ft. I guess I should be happy it is snowing a little somewhere. 

 

At times like these I wish the average ski resort in the Cascade/Coastal range was around 8K. 

 

Saw that but I was surprised it was even snowing at all. I expected a depressing scene even up there but it was really nice to see some big flakes coming down.

 

Was up there skiing at the end of May last year and it was snowing at the top 1,000 feet or so on Blackcomb. The summit is about the same elevation as Crystal's as I'm sure you know but that few hundred miles north makes all the difference sometimes.

[Prairiedog]

I agree with Tim that tomorrow looks pretty run-of-the-mill for everyone at this point. Even down in western OR, models have weakened the winds significantly and the once bullish GFS shows a near non event.

I must have missed something.  Links please to your analysis. 

[Deweydog]

CFS update???

[ShawniganLake]

CFS update???

Pretty much all the cold goes east of the Rockies through mid January. Hasn't looked good for the last few days at least. Jim will be unhappy.

[Jesse]

Yakima Tribe could have allowed developers to make a ski lift to the top of the summit of Adams.

 

Would have been open year around. On second thought that would suck. If you want to ski big lines, get a backcountry set up. I'd be cool with one really great resort more in the interior of the North Cascades, but the enviromental impacts, and maintenance would be expensive. A truly world class resort could be there if the money and time were invested.

 

I'm against over development of ski resorts (I.E. Colorado).

Yikes. I would hate to see spots like Mount Adams or the North Cascades house major ski resorts. Our mid-elevation front country ones usually are just fine. Not every year can be a winner.

[Jesse]

Pretty much all the cold goes east of the Rockies through mid January. Hasn't looked good for the last few days at least. Jim will be unhappy.

That would be terrible news if the CFS was ever accurate.

[ShawniganLake]

That would be terrible news if the CFS was ever accurate.

I know.  Just double checked, and actually the Jan 8-11 period has a nice arctic outbreak.  That's a relief.

 

Also, It is showing a 6 day blizzard for the second half of February.  Its hour 1800, so its not a lock yet, but its something to watch.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/CFS_Model_2.html

[Parksvillewx]

I know.  Just double checked, and actually the Jan 8-11 period has a nice arctic outbreak.  That's a relief.

 

Also, It is showing a 6 day blizzard for the second half of February.  Its hour 1800, so its not a lock yet, but its something to watch.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/CFS_Model_2.html

 

lol

[Jesse]

66 (at least) at SEA and BLI today. Just unbelievable.

 

Meanwhile 47 so far out here.

[ShawniganLake]

Those in glass houses... 

 

I think he contributes a lot more to the forum than some.

Of course he does.  He is a pretty knowledgeable guy.  Just a little guilty of wish casting from time to time, but he is an important part of the forum.

[Jesse]

Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December?

 

There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.

[Deweydog]

Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December?

 

There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.

Precedent? It's just a super warm version of a typical warm pattern. Typically there isn't much opportunity for adiabatic drying in these patterns in the affected areas because it's really wet.

 

Everything is changing.

[BLI snowman]

I must have missed something.  Links please to your analysis. 

 

Sure thing. This is the most recent highest resolution MM5 run

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d4_wgsfc+//84/3

 

A small area of 50kt gusts is the highest it gets in western OR, most places are 25-35kts. For all intents and purposes that is a near non event. Run-of-the-mill. For western WA of course it's even weaker and wind gusts are unlikely to be much stronger than they were today. Nothing at all is pointing towards a noteworthy windstorm.

[chinook]

McMinnville...Intense band of rain moving through the area.  Gusts to 24. 

[BLI snowman]

Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December?

 

There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.

 

Late December 1980 is still the king of December torches. That and late December 1917 still stand out above this.

[antipex]

Late December 1980 is still the king of December torches. That and late December 1917 still stand out above this.

 

Too bad the east wind is relentless in the Portland area – it hasn't really been above mid-50s here for a while.

[Deweydog]

Wind is picking up here.  Pretty breezy.  Should be a good dress rehearsal for tomorrow's pretty breeze.  

[FroYoBro]

I don't think tomorrow is going to be exciting. Non-event. Incredibly boring. 

 

Am I cool now?

[bainbridgekid]

Sure thing. This is the most recent highest resolution MM5 run

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d4_wgsfc+//84/3

 

A small area of 50kt gusts is the highest it gets in western OR, most places are 25-35kts. For all intents and purposes that is a near non event. Run-of-the-mill. For western WA of course it's even weaker and wind gusts are unlikely to be much stronger than they were today. Nothing at all is pointing towards a noteworthy windstorm.

To be fair, that is the furthest offshore/North of any model and brings the low in near Central Vancouver Island. The 18z brings the low to the tip of the Olympic Penninsula which would increase winds.

 

I don't see this being a monster windstorm or anything, but it could definitely be more than run-of-the-mill depending on your definition of that term. Going to be all about the specific track.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121018/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_6.png

[bainbridgekid]

Oakland and San Francisco schools have decided to close tomorrow ahead of this storm.

 

Apparently a few years of drought really wussifies you.

[Deweydog]

I don't think tomorrow is going to be exciting. Non-event. Incredibly boring. 

 

Am I cool now?

 

Good, honest and objective analysis is ALWAYS cool and in style.  

 

The Fonz taught us that in scripture.  

[Deweydog]

Oakland and San Francisco schools have decided to close tomorrow ahead of this storm.

 

Apparently a few years of drought really wussifies you.

 

That's pretty goofy, although I remember them going absolutely bonkers down there during the 12-12-95 storm.  That was a completely different beast, of course.  

 

Dynamics down there are much better, though.  An actual triple point with good jet support and such...

[Bham_Guy]

BLI ended up with a high of 67 today. 4 degrees above the previous record for Dec.

[Deweydog]

BLI ended up with a high of 67 today. 4 degrees above the previous record for Dec.

 

I'm calling SeaTac shenanigans on that .