bainbridgekid Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 18z parallel GFS shows Arctic air just about to enter WA at day 10. This is sure a weird situation. We may go into a big cold wave with almost no snow on the ground in the mountains. A normal warm ENSO winter would actually do better in the mountains the first half of the winter. Expect big surprises to come.The block is beautiful but it's hard to imagine arctic air making it here with such a deep SE trough. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121518/gfsp_z500a_namer_41.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 The block is beautiful but it's hard to imagine arctic air making it here with such a deep SE trough. I would guess if that pattern happens a SE ridge will appear rather quickly. I seem to remember we had a cold snap or two recently where the SE was strangely missing in the models also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 It happened in December 1968. Needless to say, that's not normal. I wonder if it may have happened in late Jan 1893 also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I would guess if that pattern happens a SE ridge will appear rather quickly. I seem to remember we had a cold snap or two recently where the SE was strangely missing in the models also.There will be no significant SE ridge. There's no sustainable, low-frequency forcing available for one. In a situation like this, a SE ridge isn't necessary anyway. You're going to have coast-to-coast cold, with the heart of it directed into the Central US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 It happened in December 1968. Needless to say, that's not normal.True, but I was referring to the actual numbers, not the anomalies. I could see a huge western blast in early January if everything works out..or it could slide just east. Going to be a close call. The 1968-69 winter was largely a result of the Strat-forced -NAO coupling with the tropically forced -PNA..that's hard for the system to do, but it's somewhat similar to what the first 10 days of January might look like. If the NAO fails or is delayed this time, then we're left with a reincarnation of January 1994/2014.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 It happened in December 1968. Needless to say, that's not normal.February 1989 was probably about as close as we get to it as well. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 The latest Euro weeklies are less than inspiring. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 There will be no significant SE ridge. There's no sustainable, low-frequency forcing available for one. In a situation like this, a SE ridge isn't necessary anyway. You're going to have coast-to-coast cold, with the heart of it directed into the Central US.Apparently the Euro weeklies show a developing SE Ridge come New Year time frame. Haven't seen them myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 True, but I was referring to the actual numbers, not the anomalies. I could see a huge western blast in early January if everything works out..or it could slide just east. Going to be a close call.The 1968-69 winter was largely a result of the Strat-forced -NAO coupling with the tropically forced -PNA..that's hard for the system to do, but it's somewhat similar to what the first 10 days of January might look like. If the NAO fails or is delayed this time, then we're left with a reincarnation of January 1994/2014..Exactly, on actual numbers. December 1968 produced -21/-48 in Winthrop, WA and -27/-50 in Eureka, MT. This is west of the divide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 The latest Euro weeklies are less than inspiring.Mark posted the wrong maps. Take a second look. Not bad at all. Big time ridging through the Aleutians and western Alaska, Christmas through New years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 February 1989 was probably about as close as we get to it as well.That cold wave actually produced highs around -25 and lows around -40 in MT and WY. The coldest air still went east of the divide... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Mark posted the wrong maps. Take a second look. Not bad at all. Big time ridging through the Aleutians and western Alaska, Christmas through New years. He did?! What a warm bias. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Exactly, on actual numbers. December 1968 produced -21/-48 in Winthrop, WA and -27/-50 in Eureka, MT. This is west of the divide.So, "west of the continental divide" is analogous to the PNW realm? I'm no geography buff, but that's new to me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just saw the EURO weeklies. Christmas through mid-January could be cold. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Latest tweet from Brett Anderson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Apparently the Euro weeklies show a developing SE Ridge come New Year time frame. Haven't seen them myselfI see something that resembles a SW Atlantic ridge going up in response to the deep North American trough, but I wouldn't call it a SE ridge..the weeklies have a -NAO/-AO/-PNA going..looks a lot like hybrid of 1968-69 and 1978-79.. The big western cold is coming, but not until around/after New Years, IMO..and even then, I still think it'll be a coast-to-coast deal.. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just saw the EURO weeklies. Christmas through mid-January could be cold.Yeah that omega block the EURO shows is in a fantastic spot. I don't see any way Arctic air doesn't dive down to the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 So, "west of the continental divide" is analogous to the PNW realm? I'm no geography buff, but that's new to me. Just out of curiosity, what region do you think Winthrop, WA is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just out of curiosity, what region do you think Winthrop, WA is?If he's been there he know it's the wild west. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just out of curiosity, what region do you think Winthrop, WA is?Geographically, I look at state borders. That's it, I don't give a crap about topographically-induced microclimactic variations over short distances when looking at things from an upper level perspective. That's something a mesoscale meteorologist would look at..that's not what I do.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 So, "west of the continental divide" is analogous to the PNW realm? I'm no geography buff, but that's new to me.Glad to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Glad to help.Thanks. In looking at the ESRL reanalysis, though, it looks like the coldest air in the lower 48 during the 1968-69 blast(s) was located in Central Montana, at least from 500mb to 950mb. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 That cold wave actually produced highs around -25 and lows around -40 in MT and WY. The coldest air still went east of the divide... Well, the coldest air will always be east of the divide, save for situations where it's a due northerly or northwesterly advection event. Even in 1968 I'm sure the "core" of the coldest air was over and just east of the Rockies as elevation and the proximity to the Canadian Prairies will always reign supreme. I just find it hard to believe we can do much better than this from an advection/upper level support standpoint... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0203.php 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thanks.In looking at the ESRL reanalysis, though, it looks like the coldest air in the lower 48 during the 1968-69 blast(s) was located in Central Montana, at least from 500mb to 950mb.I haven't seen the ESRL reanalysis, so I will take your word for it. Even if the column was slightly colder east of the divide, it was pretty close to what spilled over west of the divide. I'm not aware of any surface obs east of the divide colder than the -27/-50 in Eureka, for example. It was an extraordinary event. About as close as we've ever come to having the Rockies "not matter" so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well, the coldest air will always be east of the divide, save for situations where it's a due northerly or northwesterly advection event. Even in 1968 I'm sure the "core" of the coldest air was over and just east of the Rockies as elevation and the proximity to the Canadian Prairies will always reign supreme. I just find it hard to believe we can do much better than this from an advection/upper level support standpoint... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0203.phpFrom an advection point of view I agree. February 1989 was the king. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well, the coldest air will always be east of the divide, save for situations where it's a due northerly or northwesterly advection event. Even in 1968 I'm sure the "core" of the coldest air was over and just east of the Rockies as elevation and the proximity to the Canadian Prairies will always reign supreme. I just find it hard to believe we can do much better than this from an advection/upper level support standpoint... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0203.php This looks like one of those fantasy CFS runs. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I see something that resembles a SW Atlantic ridge going up in response to the deep North American trough, but I wouldn't call it a SE ridge..the weeklies have a -NAO/-AO/-PNA going..looks a lot like hybrid of 1968-69 and 1978-79.. The big western cold is coming, but not until around/after New Years, IMO..and even then, I still think it'll be a coast-to-coast deal.. Sounds like you're moving up the timing considerably. Last week, you were emphasizing more towards mid January for the West. Hey, either way, if it happens we'll all be happy! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thanks. In looking at the ESRL reanalysis, though, it looks like the coldest air in the lower 48 during the 1968-69 blast(s) was located in Central Montana, at least from 500mb to 950mb. He was referring specifically to the blast at the end of December 1968. Not the one later in January. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sounds like you're moving up the timing considerably. Last week, you were emphasizing more towards mid January for the West. Hey, either way, if it happens we'll all be happy!Nope, I've made no changes to my thinking since October..read my winter outlook if you have any confusions Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 He was referring specifically to the blast at the end of December 1968. Not the one later in January.Yep http://catchmypicture.com/QVnvZ7.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yep http://catchmypicture.com/QVnvZ7.jpgCan't tell much from that, to be honest with you. The cold wave in late January 1969 was definitely centered over MT. There were surface readings into the -50's on the prairies, including at Havre. But the late December blast was a different animal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Can't tell much from that, to be honest with you. The cold wave in late January 1969 was definitely centered over MT. There were surface readings into the -50's on the prairies, including at Havre. But the late December blast was a different animal.Understood. As I mentioned before, I look at these things from a macroscale standpoint..you generally almost always see these airmasses max out and slide SE along/east of the mountains as angular momentum is conserved. The mesoscale stuff is mostly out of my league. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I feel like the North interior is due for a winter blast. There is definitely some bias at play here... but the continuous cold and dry events become very repetitive without some snow along with it. Unfortunately, the North interior scoring usually comes at a cost of anyone south of Seattle receiving rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nope, I've made no changes to my thinking since October..read my winter outlook if you have any confusions I know what your winter outlook said. But you've definitely made comments in the past week indicating you were leaning away from the New Year and closer to mid January for the Western blast. No worries, you gave yourself originally a wide enough window of late Dec to mid Jan, and yes, your comments have always fit somewhere in that window. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Christmas looks chilly on the Euro. http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20141216065747-15410-0737.gif 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro is nice. Looks primed for some big cold to slide down towards the end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro is nice. Looks primed for some cold to slide down towards the end. As soon as it showed the Pacific energy digging further west north of HI, I knew this run would be an improvement. And it's definitely acting like it wants to pop some sort of SE ridge there at the end. Though as we all know, that's impossible this winter. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I suppose I shouldn't be surprised how much the different the GFS and parallel GFS is compared to the ECMWF as of late, but I'm still surprised. And here I thought the "upgraded" GFS would be better at seeing these large scale pattern changes...silly me. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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