Jump to content
The Weather Forums

March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Not surprised they arn't buying in and they may be right not to.  12z Models are not backing off so far.

Models are inconsistent in exact details, but consistent in KC being right on the edge (in terms of temps) of accumulating snows.  GFS backed way off.  Pretty much all the rest still have accumulating snow, with the GFSv16 and HRR 12z going bonkers.  We'll see.  It would be a fun surprise to get several inches, especially since it'd be gone quickly.  But "surprise" is the operative word. 

The temperatures 1000 feet closest to the ground will be the key.  I used to work in Chicago on the 49th floor of a building.  I remember one time it snowing outside my window.  But when I went downstairs for lunch, it was raining.  A few hundred feet can make a huge difference.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 385
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

My family and I took a trip up to Las Vegas, NV for the weekend to explore nature and also the lights and fun activities on the strip and our hotel/resort.  We are staying at the Hilton Grand Vacation

Due to the high winds and chilly weather, we decided to go up into the NE part of the valley where it was warmer to visit the “Valley of Fire State Park.”  Boy, was it a crazy windy day with gusts up

Finally some picture worthy snowbanks!

Posted Images

For what it is worth here is a winter severity map.

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

As expected it shows west Michigan with a "mild" winter. It shows east Michigan with mostly a moderate winter but several locations to the west and south west of Michigan it shows with a severe to extreme winter so I guess the best way to describe that is location, location.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow...45% tornado probabilities in a small part of MS/AL. Don't see that too often. PDS watch out for that area.

 

tws.png

  • Like 3
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like another 2"+ rain event possible for much of the region early next week. Could be looking at a record wet March for Lincoln if true. 

  • Like 3
  • Rain 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding the upcoming snow possibility...it seems the lower level temp profiles might be better towards the KC area than in MBY to the west. I really don't have a good guess to be honest...though I lean towards mostly rain mixed with some snow at times for here.

  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Live feed of the severe weather from one of the best meteorologists, James Spann from Alabama.

http://abc3340.com/watch

 

James Spann is the MAN. Probably the best out there imo.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Winter Weather Advisory

 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...Snow Expected Tonight into Thursday Morning...

KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-
180315-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0009.210318T0500Z-210318T1700Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-
Johnson MO-Bates-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron,
Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge,
Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston,
Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson,
Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,
Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,
Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, and Rich Hill
215 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches with isolated amounts as high as 4 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow amounts will occur on
  grassy and elevated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

D**n, just came on to post this.

SPC used to hand out high risks like candy before the enhanced category became a thing, allowing for less usage of the moderate category, and as a result, the high category.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

James Spann is the MAN. Probably the best out there imo.

I was just thinking about his coverage of the 2011 outbreak the other day and wondered if he's still on the air. Great to see he is, his severe wx coverage is truly one of the best, if not the best, in the country.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

DVN radar is back up this afternoon.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Here’s the frequency of different levels of severe outlooks across the CONUS. It goes back only to 2002, and since then it looks like parts of eastern Iowa never had a high risk and not many moderate risks, but my state seems to be a hotspot for slight risks which do seem common here. (There should’ve been a high risk in Iowa for the derecho last August!)

 

Edit: Oops, I stated that wrong, so I deleted that sentence. The maps that I posted are current up until March 17, 2021, just not the one in this link. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2021-03-17

 

 

 

65C98B04-FDB2-4092-8BE9-71BAE8A9DC83.png

E3BABA36-98FF-4597-8446-2D4438186E81.png

3DF48112-A580-4A44-993E-910F06BE1591.png

4A3E7A74-AF5B-44A7-B440-79775BA36D52.png

  • Like 4

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites

This system really ended up quite far south.  Tonight's deformation zone precip didn't even make it up to Kansas City.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I forgot who it was exactly, but I think one of our members in IA went down to the Panhandle of Florida for Spring Break this week.  Panama city is getting nailed right now with severe wx.  I hope his family is safe.

Quote

Tornado Warning



Tornado Warning
FLC005-045-181215-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0017.210318T1148Z-210318T1215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
648 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  East central Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* Until 715 AM CDT.

* At 648 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 10 miles west of Wewahitchka, or 12 miles east of
  Callaway, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Stonemill Creek and Wewahitchka around 705 AM CDT.

 

Major outbreak occurred yesterday and the severe wx reports indicate just that...

today Filtered Reports Graphic

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

There was a total of 0.06" of rain in the rain gauge this morning that brings the March total of 0.11". I can not recall the last time there was a wind advisory for a NE wind in this area. There are many time with a deep low to the south that the east side of the state gets a strong NE wind off of Lake Huron or the Saginaw Bay but I don't recall a wind advisory for a NE wind on this side of the state. At this time the rain has ended and it is cloudy and 35 here. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Waking up to a little bit of snow this morning. Temp only made it down to 34 and is now 35.

No snow and only 0.18" of rain at my house, so not much happened here.

  • Sad 2
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mlgamer said:

No snow and only 0.18" of rain at my house, so not much happened here.

This system tracked further south than what the models were predicting and we never got cold enough to switch all over to snow. 

Welp! we can always cheer for next winter to be better to us!

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Welp! we can always cheer for next winter to be better to us!

For once we did get a true arctic cold spell this year so maybe snowier winters are around the corner! 😃

  • Like 4
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, gotta say, after the last week and the slow meandering climb the last month back to beautiful weather, this 39° with drizzle and 26° wind chill is a slap back to reality. That was a beautiful few days of weather though, even in the storms this morning.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is more signaling now that we're going to get shut out on the warm close to March. I'm honestly surprised. Typically (in years past) longer term this time of year, you see a progression like this go a lot warmer after the severity of the past month's cold outbreak.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like an amazing stretch of weather coming for SMI.  Saturday thru Wednesday of next week.    Cold nights  mild to warm days (low 60's) plenty of sunshine.   So much better than the last few March's.  Spring is here!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Only 0.19” of the rain here. Models had been showing much more earlier, so they busted again. It’s nice to see the sun though, but the wind is howling out of the nne.

  • Like 1

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Tom said:

I forgot who it was exactly, but I think one of our members in IA went down to the Panhandle of Florida for Spring Break this week.  Panama city is getting nailed right now with severe wx.  I hope his family is safe.

 

Major outbreak occurred yesterday and the severe wx reports indicate just that...

today Filtered Reports Graphic

You are correct.  Still down here but that line of storms the other night was intense.  Lost power for a bit.  Was fun watching the lightning on the gulf and 6ft waves roll in.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BMT said:

You are correct.  Still down here but that line of storms the other night was intense.  Lost power for a bit.  Was fun watching the lightning on the gulf and 6ft waves roll in.  

Glad your alright!  Hey, at least you got to experience some fun wx down there and got a taste of what may be coming to your area up north later this Spring/Summer across the MW.  I'm sure the scene was beautiful to see the lighting bolts across the ocean.  Gosh, it's been a while since I've been down near the GOM or the tropics.  It makes me want to take a trip this year and dip my feet into the ocean!  Have fund down there!

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

My wife am me did the Red Rock Canyon the last time we were in Vegas. Boy that was a long time ago must have been in maybe 2000  or before as it was before there was as much security to get on a plane. We also went to  Mount Charleston. There was still snow up in the mountains and it was late April. It is to the west of Vegas and it is a short drive.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, westMJim said:

My wife am me did the Red Rock Canyon the last time we were in Vegas. Boy that was a long time ago must have been in maybe 2000  or before as it was before there was as much security to get on a plane. We also went to  Mount Charleston. There was still snow up in the mountains and it was late April. It is to the west of Vegas and it is a short drive.

I visited Mt Charleston about 15 years ago and it was during Thanksgiving week when we visited my sister when she lived here.  Very nice place and quite a steep ride up.  I think we’re heading there in a bit to take a look and see how it is up there.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Welcome to Spring!  It's a windy morning here in Sin city where the breezes will be ramping up later today.  We didn't make it out to Mt Charleston yesterday, but it's on the agenda today.  Winds are forecast to gust up to 60 mph there today!  The storm tracking into the Rockies is certainly whipping up the winds out here.  LAS reached 80F for the first time this year yesterday.  On avg, March 15th is their 1st 80F or better day.

 

Image

 

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tom said:

Welcome to Spring!  It's a windy morning here in Sin city where the breezes will be ramping up later today.  We didn't make it out to Mt Charleston yesterday, but it's on the agenda today.  Winds are forecast to gust up to 60 mph there today!  The storm tracking into the Rockies is certainly whipping up the winds out here.  LAS reached 80F for the first time this year yesterday.  On avg, March 15th is their 1st 80F or better day.

 

Image

 

 

You're in Vegas now? Dang!

52, sunny and windy up here in St Paul

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/18/2021 at 7:33 PM, snowstorm83 said:

Nice

Tab4FileL.png?d680a4f2ef427e69ca4bbe203fc66636

Oops this link didn't age well

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

With clear skies calm winds and low dew points the low dropped down to 25 here overnight. At this time it is clear and 35. On this date in 2012 the temperature soared up to 87 and that is not only the record for the date but also the warmest high of any day in March at Grand Rapids. It has reached 70 or better a total of 6 times on this date. The coldest low and maximum of 18/9 was set in 1965 and there was 9" on snow on the ground that day.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Tab3FileL.png?ec2fef02d4058494ae46fcb999

Last year it seemed like we couldn’t buy a significant rainfall event around here, now this will be our second decent one in a months time... if this pattern keeps up we might go from moderate to severe drought to widespread flooding again. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro and Canadian have a whopper storm farther nw, GFS/GFSv16 are weaker and southeast.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
  • scream 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Tom Thanks for sharing that’s amazing! I love teaching my geology unit; it’s amazing to think what the climate was like in these different regions millions of years ago. Then you throw in the Native American history and you have an amazing collection of history!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom Thanks for sharing that’s amazing! I love teaching my geology unit; it’s amazing to think what the climate was like in these different regions millions of years ago. Then you throw in the Native American history and you have an amazing collection of history!

The Native American history is truly inspiring and how they were able to live off the ,land in the dry desert climate.  I couldn't imagine what life was like back then.  My, what a minimalistic life that was compared to what it is now!

Yesterday, on our drive back we stopped at the Hoover Dam and this massive structure never lets me down.  While the visitor center was closed, that did not stop the tourists from flooding the area "no pun intended"...btw, they do need the moisture bc as you will see in the video in my next post, the water levels are very low.  I was here about 15 years ago and I could remember how much higher the water levels were and the massive fish that were seen near the shore.

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Playing a little catch up in the wx dept as I'm back in the saddle.  Lot's of action this week across the nation as the first system tracks over the the state of AZ and into NM will eventually blossom into a noteworthy, wet storm system across the heartland.  A second, strong cutter is in the works for the lower lakes region.  Two ribbons of very heavy rainfall are being advertised across our Sub. 


Last night's 00z Euro...

 

1.png

 

Sneak peak into Easter Weekend and the majority of the consensus is WARM!  The bunnies won't be burrowing in snow this year as it appears many of you will be basking in possible summer like temps as April opens.  No April fools jokes here.

 

2.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

This will be a pleasant sunny and warm period of the latter part of March. Yesterdays high of 65 at Grand Rapids was the 11th warmest March 21st at GR the high of 62 at Muskegon was their 8th warmest March 21st and over at Lansing the high of 66 was their 6th warmest high. All readins are well below the record readings that happened in 2012. But that said the highs are more like late April but with the clear skies and low dew points the lows have been closer to average.

We took a road trip up to Bay City yesterday and of course the weather was great. They are still collection the sap of Maple syrup and it looks like this year will be a good year for that. I had a overnight low of 32 here and at this time with clear skies it is 50.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS has been upgraded, so there is no longer a separate GFSv16.

  • Like 5

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

You can definitely tell that "Snow Machine v16" ran the 12z. :lol:

Throws down an April central plains monster at the end. Wow.

Will definitely be some cooler and variable weather in that time. There's a scheduled cold shot around that time from current patterning and looking at the BSR type stuff, the wave train out there is basically a metronome right now and as long as the weak side keeps dumping and pumping, it will flex out and or lock the trough over the US. 

Nice winter pattern in the wrong season. Lol.

Warmer than avg may be the justifiable lean for the next bit over a good amt of the conus and central US, but it wouldn't surprise me to see any real warmth kicked down the road. 

My call, variable to cold later on.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...