New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

00z GGEM...deduct 1-2" in N IL bc it looks like it would be a mix situation...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z GGEM...deduct 1-2" in N IL bc it looks like it would be a mix situation...

 

Seems to be pretty good agreement at this point for much of the SE half of Wisconsin on 3-5", probably more like 2-4 or 3-4" around Milwaukee on south.

[educatorjen]

I hate Omaha.  

 

We moved here (From Georgia...we were there for 8 years and I am originally from Florida) 4 years ago.  I remember asking the one person I knew who lived here when we found out that we would be moving here if Omaha got a lot of snow and she told me yes and sent me pictures of copious amounts of snow and told me stories about a lot of snow.  

 

Well, apparently.....my mere presence in Omaha has made it stop snowing...    I THINK I like snow...but...I don't think I have seen enough to KNOW if I like snow.  

 

**Rant over. 

[educatorjen]

Will the ratios be 10:1?

[centralweather44]

Main band of snow took a big shift to the SE after NW shifts for the majority of the day. Crazy how many times models can flip flop within a day. It was fun while it lasted at least

[educatorjen]

It would be fun if it actually snowed.  

[GDR]

Another weak sauce snow system. I bet the next one turns out even weaker.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah there's nothing left in our favor. The Canadian was one of the best looking models for our snow amount chances. Bring on the 1/2-1" amounts again

[Geos]

Will the ratios be 10:1?

 

More than likely higher for your area.

If you get snow it will be fluffy. Could be 20:1 out that way.

 

---

 

Yeah Para-GFS has definitely swung south a bit.

 

 

[GDR]

On to the next!

[gosaints]

Lol look at the euro. Another nothing to see here storm . still waiting

[Tom]

00z Euro...lol, what a difference 12 hours of model runs today...from a major winter storm in IA/WI to absolutely nada...insanity.

[Tom]

Talk about Thundersnow from DSM, to now no snow at all???  This is just crazy the way models are behaving this season.

[Madtown]

F this...big storm going nw to no storm.

[gosaints]

Low near Ohio border And 850 above zero in Chicago. Another crap storm. Crap pattern

[Money]

LOL

[Money]

Was the northern stream being sampled in the 0z runs tonight?

[Tom]

00z Euro showing some backside snows only for Chicago...maybe a couple inches tops...

[gosaints]

Was the northern stream being sampled in the 0z runs tonight?

Partial. Better at 12z

[Tom]

Was the northern stream being sampled in the 0z runs tonight?

It's just beginning to come onshore tonight.  I'd wait till tomorrow 12z to be fully sampled.

[GDR]

Looks like Chicago area will have to deal with some freezing precip. What a crappy winter. Watch January turn out like December snow wise. Wait until that big clipper hits us with a inch next week.

[Grizzcoat]

unreal.  never seen such a big switch one way or the other this close. makes one wonder why we even look at 48+ hours out on snowfall data. Feel like the Cubs-- always next year as even this year looks very bleak even this early.

[james1976]

6z runs suck real bad too. Cant get a real storm here. It must be impossible.

[dubuque473]

Down to 1-3 inches here with 40mph gusts...

[GDR]

To bad for the iowa folks looked real good until the Nebraska peeps put the dome on. Maybe will set a record for least amount of snow this winter. Cheers for an early spring with some moisture!

[Trinomial]

I would not doubt this changes again with the 00z runs later tonight. This year, you can't believe a model until about 12 hours before the storm actually hits - At least it seems that way lately.

[gosaints]

I would not doubt this changes again with the 00z runs later tonight. This year, you can't believe a model until about 12 hours before the storm actually hits - At least it seems that way lately.

Once they go back to strung out leas phasing they have stayed there though

[bud2380]

HI-res NAM back to a stronger solution.  lol - trust nothing.

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/u4FzDz9.png

[Money]

Hi-res NAM including actual ratios:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010212/nam4km_asnow_us_17.png

[Niko]

Very sloppy storm on the way. I'm suppose to get 1 to 2 inches of snowfall, followed by freezing rain and sleet for a couple of hours and finally plain rain. Im glad it will rain, so that it can wash away the ice accumulation. Ugh....what a messy storm! Should be excited to track though.

[Geos]

Thinking the models were over doing the strength of the system yesterday and pushing it to the NW. Now we've got a south trending waves.

 

[Tony]

Man, this is just crazy how wild the swings have been on the model runs for this storm as well as the last one. If this southeast trend continues then a lot of areas that were supposed to see snow a couple days ago might be shutout. Heck, Chicago was expecting mostly rain and now it could be possible we could get a few inches out of this. I know the Mets are probably pulling their hair out again trying to figure out what the heck is going to happen.

[lcp]

Thinking the models were over doing the strength of the system yesterday and pushing it to the NW. Now we've got a south trending waves.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010212/gfsp_asnow_eus_11.png

 

First time poster, long time lurker.

 

Seems common, models move 2-3 days out only to come back to their original spot.

[dubuque473]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2015/01/1-storm-night.jpg

 

ediT: I think he posted this before the shift to the east overnight....

[Tony]

12z Gem show a good front end thump and a nice band with the 2nd wave.

[Seahawkfan]

Depending on the Modal run/Time of day i expect to get some where between 2-8 inches. This will be a fun storm to track see what we end up with by Sunday am. 

[Tom]

12z Euro took a slight shift SE and now takes the SLP up towards E IN...the first map on the Euro I'm posting is probably freezing rain/mix, then a secondary wave develops on the Euro bringing accumulating snows for E IA/N IL/S WI/MI...best guess is maybe 2-4" for N IL/S WI.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Niko]

It the SE trend continues, I might be looking at more snow than mix that goes to rain. That goes true for the Chicago area too. I believe this storm might have major surprises ahead.

[Scott26]

12z Euro took a slight shift SE and now takes the SLP up towards E IN...the first map on the Euro I'm posting is probably freezing rain/mix, then a secondary wave develops on the Euro bringing accumulating snows for E IA/N IL/S WI/MI...best guess is maybe 2-4" for N IL/S WI.

Yup, 850's don't get below zero until hour 42 so anything before that is likely a rain/mix. 2-4 inches would probably be right based on that run.