ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sunday is also looking more snowy on the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if the same areas that saw snow last February get snow again this time with some low level cold leaking out of the Fraser gap. Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas. The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z. Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area. The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping. 4-8" for my area. Maybe 8-12" farther north. Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Got about an inch of fluffy snow this morning which has tapered to flurries. Currently 19F. Saturday night/Sunday's storm should drop 3-5" before changing to rain early Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Light snow and sleet here! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like it will get ridiculously warm on a couple of days next week once again. Not good for the ski areas. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Snow/sleet Starting to turn the ground and pavement white! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Drizzle here this morning and 37°. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I would love to see a nice cool zonal flow take over. This dry cold wave pattern is getting old. The snow pack is hideous. There is only 6 inches of snow at my cabin at 3600 ft and there is usually 2 ft at least. Even up higher here in the north east mountains at 5000 ft there is only 10 inches. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas. The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z. Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area. The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping. 4-8" for my area. Maybe 8-12" farther north. Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif Looks even better than before. Hopefully the WRF is not over doing it for you guys though... Right now I just want some brief light snow for Puget Sound... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like it will get ridiculously warm on a couple of days next week once again. Not good for the ski areas. Ya I am really worried for the snoqualmie pass area especially. Like SnowMizer said, it would be nice if we could just have sustained cool zonal flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I swear the precipitation knows when it is too warm to snow. 32F it avoids everywhere like a quarantined area, but once the temperature rises a few degrees above freezing it trains over that location. 0.15" in the last couple of hours, all of it at 35F which reminds me of the inches of rain last year at 34F. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Here is the 500mb anomaly map for 2014. It clearly shows why it was so warm. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I swear the precipitation knows when it is too warm to snow. 32F it avoids everywhere like a quarantined area, but once the temperature rises a few degrees above freezing it trains over that location. 0.15" in the last couple of hours, all of it at 35F which reminds me of the inches of rain last year at 34F. Especially in the month of January. Since 1982 January can kiss my a$$! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Ya I am really worried for the snoqualmie pass area especially. Like SnowMizer said, it would be nice if we could just have sustained cool zonal flow. I bet the mountains will do fine in March and April. Just a hunch. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Had some snow flurries here a few minutes ago. Almost forgot what that stuff looked like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I bet the mountains will do fine in March and April. Just a hunch.Yep, I'm sure they'll do quite well then. Also I have a hunch we will have a great set up here for what would be snow if it Occurred in January. I only say this because this has been a pattern for quite some time. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas. The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z. Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area. The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping. 4-8" for my area. Maybe 8-12" farther north. Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. It be nice if we could get some stronger outflow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Was snowing pretty good when I left my house about an hour ago, I-5 was actually getting pretty slushy between Arlington and Stanwood. I am up in stanwood now and it's just light drizzle, could still be snow at my house with intense precip looking at the radar. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Especially in the month of January. Since 1982 January can kiss my a$$!It's only the 2nd, anything can happen even by mid month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks even better than before. Hopefully the WRF is not over doing it for you guys though... Right now I just want some brief light snow for Puget Sound... I have noticed that those models tend to overdo snowfall amounts in marginal events, so I wouldn't be surprised if accumulations end up at about half of what is shown there at lower elevations; the opposite is usually true in Arctic events with those models often tending too much on the dry side. The mountains will do well regardless. The real fun doesn't start until later tomorrow through to Sunday morning but it will be short lived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.Phil is having a rough month so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS Snow Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Light flurries in West Seattle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.If this one fails, the next round of breakers (starting in late January) should do it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 If this one fails, the next round of breakers should do it in late January.Would that be a better scenario for us as the mjo comes back around in February? Or no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Phil is having a rough month so far.I'd call it a so-so forecast thus far..cold is currently coast-to-coast. Got this WSI map in a text from one of my old friends..legit: http://catchmypicture.com/scfmQk.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Would that be a better scenario for us as the mjo comes back around in February? Or no?Yes, definitely. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 RIP Winter 2014-15. As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month. Maybe Feb will be our month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.Made it to moderate status..didn't reach SSW criteria as far as wind reversal is concerned. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I have to say this 36 degree, moderate rain fall is incredible. -- Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 RIP Winter 2014-15. As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month. pnaens.jpg Maybe Feb will be our month? maybe March or April.... Who knows Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Phil is having a rough month so far.It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 maybe March or April.... Who knows Early April is always great for miserable cold rain and snow mixed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 RIP Winter 2014-15. As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month. pnaens.jpg Maybe Feb will be our month?You can see a similar PNA drop when you compare the current state to mid-late November. Very similar evolutions. The roller coaster of cold outbreaks relate to the short MJO cycle this season. MJO has favored the Indian Ocean to the west Pacific, with a weak signal over the central Pacific and western Indian Ocean. This allows for the primary convection to focus on phases 3-6 for the most part. 4-6 are considered La Nina phases, with 3 and 7 being more of "transition" phases. If the regime remains similar, then I'd say ~4-5 weeks will be our next window. Look for another atmospheric river and Aleutian low pattern in the near future as the convection shifts over the Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen.The large scale evolution worked out as expected..minus the NAO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Could the second half of January be as lousy and snowless as the what first half is shaping up to be? I think it'll turn around. Crack-u-weather.com seems to think so too... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 You can see a similar PNA drop when you compare the current state to mid-late November. Very similar evolutions. The roller coaster of cold outbreaks relate to the short MJO cycle this season. MJO has favored the Indian Ocean to the west Pacific, with a weak signal over the central Pacific and western Indian Ocean. This allows for the primary convection to focus on phases 3-6 for the most part. 4-6 are considered La Nina phases, with 3 and 7 being more of "transition" phases. If the regime remains similar, then I'd say ~4-5 weeks will be our next window. Look for another atmospheric river and Aleutian low pattern in the near future as the convection shifts over the Pacific. Yup...no reason to think we won't have another chance. We are going to have another huge torch this week so the extreme roller coaster continues. We've already had three hard freeze periods this winter in spite of having one of the warmest Decembers on record. I actually think this month will be a bit cooler overall than December though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen. He really wasn't off by that much. Obviously the general pattern he forecast came to fruition, but it just didn't lock in. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I have to say this 36 degree, moderate rain fall is incredible. -- It does feel and look like winter out there today. It's frozen pretty hard for sure. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's only the 2nd, anything can happen even by mid month. This month is almost certainly done except maybe the very end. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 The large scale evolution worked out as expected..minus the NAO.Personally I think you have nothing to be ashamed of. Any nitpicking at this point is just weenie frustration kicking in. It's clear things seemed to derail at the last minute. happens. That said, the 2008 tabloid stuff was dumb and undercut (weather reference!) the rational nature of your progs to that point. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Toasty out here next Wednesday... while some nice -27C temps dip into the Great Lakes. Am I going to have to read more from my relatives complaining about the bitter cold?? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.