January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Into the low 50s at PDX after a freeze this morning. It can't even fake cold right this winter.

Things mixed pretty well up here.

[Jesse]

Feels like Spring.

Bring it.

[Jesse]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

[Deweydog]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

It's about time someone brought this up as a topic of conversation!

[Phil]

I wouldn't quite call that coast to coast cold since the West Coast itself wasn't cold, and portions of the Desert SW were warmer than normal.

I look at the large scale..when things end up off kilter, that's that..doesn't mean the forcing(s) and large scale response(s) didn't work out.

 

In this case, it was PV elasticity/poor wave synchronization that pushed things east/delayed the -NAM..

[AlTahoe]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

Here in the Sierra the last 9 January's have averaged 50% less snow than Dec, Feb, and March. 2008 was our only above average January out of the last 9

[HighlandExperience]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

 

It is strange how reliably terrible January has become around here. Februray is not much better. Our winters are a bit like a donut hole at this point.

[BLI snowman]

It's about time someone brought this up as a topic of conversation!

 

I know.

 

It's almost as if January is the new April or something.

 

Gonna be a quiet month.

[MossMan]

It is strange how reliably terrible January has become around here. Februray is not much better. Our winters are a bit like a donut hole at this point.

I thought we were starting to turn a corner in January of 2012, boy was I wrong. The last three have been extra pathetic.

[TT-SEA]

I judge a winter by meaningful dry interludes and sunshine.

 

This winter has been awesome in that regard. Absolute opposite of years like 2012-13 or 1958-59.

 

This winter is getting an 'A' in my book.

[Phil]

12z ECMWF laughs at U.S. blowtorch proponents. Anyone who understands wave dynamics should know that was not going to happen, outside maybe a 3 day transitional period.

[Deweydog]

I thought we were starting to turn a corner in January of 2012, boy was I wrong. The last three have been extra pathetic.

Payback's a *****.

 

Personally I think a LITTLE too much has been made of the issues with this particular month. There's been plenty of fairly significant events in January, just nothing worthy of absolute, top-end superlatives. 1993, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 all had their moments. People have just whipped themselves into a "we're due!" fury and have, in my opinion, pulled things a bit out of context.

[HighlandExperience]

I judge a winter by meaningful dry interludes and sunshine.

 

This winter has been awesome in that regard. Absolute opposite of years like 2012-13 or 1958-59.

 

This winter is getting an 'A' in my book.

 

That is all fine and dandy, but when you factor in lack of snowpack below 5K, this winter gets a D+ in my book.

[Phil]

Time for a little informative debate on wave spacing and calling out others' busts without provocation.

 

I have to..

 

But all models are pointing to a predominantly +AO/+NAO pattern through the 15th, with rising EPO.

 

I really don't see anything pointing towards cold for anyone after next week's cold wave for the East.

I suspect the return of a +PNA and overall drop in the AO will lead to periodic/recurring troughing in the east.

In a 3-wave flow regime under a broad HC, you're not going to get a nationwide torch.

 

What is "true cold"? It looks like a colder than average pattern over the eastern 1/3 of the country, to me, at its worst. Typical Niño regimen over the NPAC as low-frequency forcing becomes dominant under a low W/H intensity ratio (Niño-esque).

 

I get that misery loves company, but what's being progged for the 2nd half of January is far from a coast to coast torch.

[Deweydog]

Matt Zaffino is showing images of a big solar flare yesterday! Hmmmmmm...

[TT-SEA]

That is all fine and dandy, but when you factor in lack of snowpack below 5K, this winter gets a D+ in my book.

F in that regard.

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

 

2007 was the last truly good January IMO and even that was a poor mans version of what used to be fairly common in the month of January.  I'm pretty much done getting too upset about it.  I just can't allow myself to get like that anymore. 

[BLI snowman]

Payback's a *****.

 

Personally I think a LITTLE too much has been made of the issues with this particular month. There's been plenty of fairly significant events in January, just nothing worthy of absolute, top-end superlatives. 1993, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 all had their moments. People have just whipped themselves into a "we're due!" fury and have, in my opinion, pulled things a bit out of context.

 

There have been decent events in modern years, but what you can't overlook is how incredibly few and far between they are compared to the 1850-1980 period. To a much greater extent than with any of our other months.

 

PDX and SEA (and many other spots) haven't seen a daily record low in January since 1982. That's literally years in front of any other month. Old school stations like Clearbrook have seen their January average absolutely skyrocket even compared to the 1961-90 means.

 

We haven't seen a significantly troughy or significantly -PNA January in decades. There's no denying that it's been a remarkable stretch. August may be the best comparison for it. That's the only other month that I would say has been completely lacking in the cold anomaly department in historic terms recently.

[snow_wizard]

That is all fine and dandy, but when you factor in lack of snowpack below 5K, this winter gets a D+ in my book.

 

Looking at just the lowlands the winter to this point gets a C in my book, but that will certainly drop to a D if nothing else happens.  The late Nov snowfall followed by a number of clear and cold days was something we have seen precious little of this century, but that only goes so far.

[snow_wizard]

Payback's a *****.

 

Personally I think a LITTLE too much has been made of the issues with this particular month. There's been plenty of fairly significant events in January, just nothing worthy of absolute, top-end superlatives. 1993, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 all had their moments. People have just whipped themselves into a "we're due!" fury and have, in my opinion, pulled things a bit out of context.

 

I hardly think we deserve payback on the warm side of things.

[snow_wizard]

It is strange how reliably terrible January has become around here. Februray is not much better. Our winters are a bit like a donut hole at this point.

 

Feb hasn't been nearly as bad when looking at recent observed weather compared to the past.    Good Febs come in bunches and lousy one come in bunches also.

[BLI snowman]

Olga in the San Juans is an interesting example, just to highlight how remarkably huge an outlier January is.

 

They have records back to 1891, and this is their most recent daily record low in each month

 

January: 1969

February: 2011

March: 2012

April: 2012

May: 2012

June: 2012

July: 2011

August: 2002

September: 2012

October: 2012

November: 2011

December: 2008

 

Meanwhile 24 of their 31 daily record highs in January have been set since 1969.

 

Slightly misleading? Maybe, surely there have been some big cold airmasses in those 45 years and a couple of record low maximums in that time. Bad luck? Definitely, and luck plays a big part in daily records. But regardless, to me it's just a mindblowing example of the modern changes we've witnessed here.

[snow_wizard]

12z ECMWF laughs at U.S. blowtorch proponents. Anyone who understands wave dynamics should know that was not going to happen, outside maybe a 3 day transitional period.

 

It will be interesting to see how the monthly anomaly maps look for this one when it's all said and done.  I suspect it will be somewhat cold east of the Rockies.  No doubt PNW missed out again.

[snow_wizard]

Olga in the San Juans is an interesting example, just to highlight how remarkably huge an outlier January is.

 

They have records back to 1891, and this is their most recent daily record low in each month

 

January: 1969

February: 2011

March: 2012

April: 2012

May: 2012

June: 2012

July: 2011

August: 2002

September: 2012

October: 2012

November: 2011

December: 2008

 

Meanwhile 24 of their 31 daily record highs in January have been set since 1969.

 

Slightly misleading? Maybe, surely there have been some big cold airmasses in those 45 years and a couple of record low maximums in that time. Bad luck? Definitely, and luck plays a big part in daily records. But regardless, to me it's just a mindblowing example of the modern changes we've witnessed here.

 

Truly astonishing.  There is just no reason I can think of for this to be the case, but there it is.  You would think it would have to shift at some point.

 

I just looked at Landsburg and it's almost as bad.  Two Jan record lows since 1969...one in 1979 and one in 1982.  Their temperature records go back to 1916.

[Jesse]

Matt's gonna have an aneurysm.

[Deweydog]

There have been decent events in modern years, but what you can't overlook is how incredibly few and far between they are compared to the 1850-1980 period. To a much greater extent than with any of our other months.

 

PDX and SEA (and many other spots) haven't seen a daily record low in January since 1982. That's literally years in front of any other month. Old school stations like Clearbrook have seen their January average absolutely skyrocket even compared to the 1961-90 means.

 

We haven't seen a significantly troughy or significantly -PNA January in decades. There's no denying that it's been a remarkable stretch. August may be the best comparison for it. That's the only other month that I would say has been completely lacking in the cold anomaly department in historic terms recently.

I don't deny the fact the long term trend for January has been bleak, but simply chalking it up as being a long term complete dearth of events isn't very accurate and takes the part which is remarkable out of context.

[Deweydog]

Matt's gonna have an aneurysm.

It was a lovely day. Winter's coming so get ooot and enjoy it!

[wx_statman]

There have been decent events in modern years, but what you can't overlook is how incredibly few and far between they are compared to the 1850-1980 period. To a much greater extent than with any of our other months.

 

PDX and SEA (and many other spots) haven't seen a daily record low in January since 1982. That's literally years in front of any other month. Old school stations like Clearbrook have seen their January average absolutely skyrocket even compared to the 1961-90 means.

 

We haven't seen a significantly troughy or significantly -PNA January in decades. There's no denying that it's been a remarkable stretch. August may be the best comparison for it. That's the only other month that I would say has been completely lacking in the cold anomaly department in historic terms recently.

 

August had its moments in recent years, like in 2008 and 2010. I get what you're saying though.

[wx_statman]

It was a lovely day. Winter's coming so get ooot and enjoy it!

 

This isn't Game of Thrones. Its the PNW in January.

[Deweydog]

This isn't Game of Thrones. Its the PNW in January.

I'll have to Google that one.

[BLI snowman]

August had its moments in recent years, like in 2008 and 2010. I get what you're saying though.

 

Those were at least decent troughs, but we really haven't seen a noteworthy August for cold anomalies since 2000. Still much better than January, and there have been more impressive 500mb events in August for sure.  Fewer torches, also.

[richard mann]

I look at the large scale.   ... .[W]hen things end up off kilter, that's ..... ..[This] doesn't mean [that] the forcing(s) and large scale response(s) didn't work out. In this case, it was PV elasticity/poor wave synchronization that pushed things east/delayed the -NAM..

 

So, .. With what Dan has suggested above having elicited these somewhat more specific thoughts of yours relating to what you'd posted more initially, instead of ".. coast to coast .. pretty much as .. expected", perhaps you should have included them more as a preface to what you had. .And then dialed back the main "coast to coast" idea. [Yes / No. ?]

[richard mann]

12z ECMWF laughs at U.S. blowtorch proponents. Anyone who understands wave dynamics should know that was not going to happen, outside maybe a 3 day transitional period.

 

.. The ECMWF doesn't have a personality. 

.. Who are these U.S. blowtorch proponents, that you've suggested. ?

 

... What is the "that" that you've referred to here, exactly. ?  

 

.... And when would the 3 days begin and end. ?

 

(... who understands ... should know [that] that .. was ... not .. going to happen.)  Any body. ?

 

— Tending toward the esoteric more in general, here above perhaps. ?

[FroYoBro]

Gonna be a quiet month?

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a quiet month?

Too late. It already rained.

[luvssnow_spokane]

*yawn* .. end rant...

[wx_statman]

Those were at least decent troughs, but we really haven't seen a noteworthy August for cold anomalies since 2000. Still much better than January, and there have been more impressive 500mb events in August for sure.  Fewer torches, also.

I'm a fan of August 2008. 62/48 at PDX. Coldest August day since 1964.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

To give this winter a grade a rank just proves you dont like winter weather. Winter around here is time for shitty weather. I miss the rain and 38 degrees days because I know its at least snowing In the mountains. If it were up to tim he would have the sun out 365 a year with no wind rain or a cloud for 10000 miles.

[Front Ranger]

It's pretty remarkable what a reliably ridgy, inactive month January has become.

 

We haven't had a truly cool ( in the upper levels), active January since what, 2008?

 

2012.

[Front Ranger]

I look at the large scale..when things end up off kilter, that's that..doesn't mean the forcing(s) and large scale response(s) didn't work out.

 

In this case, it was PV elasticity/poor wave synchronization that pushed things east/delayed the -NAM..

 

But again...the reasons you gave for the "coast to coast" cold did not materialize. You heavily emphasized the -AO/-NAO...didn't happen. It was all -EPO driven.