January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I've never jumped on the whole Mediterranean bandwagon. It's dumb on multiple levels. Our climate isn't changing before our eyes as you've alluded to many times over the last few months. Simply acknowledging we are and will likely continue to live in a slowly warming climate doesn't have to be a major revelation.

Not a major revelation. Just something I've gradually made peace with.

 

And I don't see how saying our climate is moving in a Mediterranean direction is such a stretch when you already acknowledge it has some Mediterranean tendencies.

 

Most level-headed guy in the room.

[Deweydog]

Not a major revelation. Just something I've gradually made peace with.

 

And I don't see how saying our climate is moving in a Mediterranean direction is such a stretch when you already acknowledge it has some Mediterranean tendencies.

 

Most level-headed guy in the room.

Tendencies are tendencies. We live in a maritime climate, no . If there were weenies around in 1862 I guarantee there would have still been some measure of angst, anxiety and immaturity about marine influence during cold events. Everything is relative to the climate you live in. 100 years from now there's a good chance people will look back at winter 2013-14, long for the old days of winter brutality and completely gloss over the fact the following summer, fall and winter were rather warm.

[stuffradio]

I strongly disagree with that statement for obvious factual reasons. The 2009-2014 period wasn't terrible historically speaking. 

I disagree with your disagreement. There were so many snow storms that went south to Seattle instead of here during this period. Only Jan 2012 was probably better here in a localized area than down south.

[Front Ranger]

You do have the fact the January average has gone up 4 degrees for SEA since 1975...just sayin.

 

And the December average?

[Front Ranger]

Lol, remember that period between the 10th and 20th that was supposed to be warm across the US? Goes to show that a high wavenumber regimen can outweight a +EPO/+AO/+NAO:

 

 

You're showing the 11-17th...not through the 20th. And, no one ever said it would be warm, just that it didn't look like a cold pattern.

 

See what happens when you include yesterday...and today is also warmer across much of the U.S. The mid month pattern has been more mild than cold for the most part.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I give up, I quit, Our weather sucks, Worst winter ever. BUT hour 384 looks good. There is hope. *rinse repeat*  (are we having fun yet?)            

 

06z hour 384 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

You're showing the 11-17th...not through the 20th. And, no one ever said it would be warm, just that it didn't look like a cold pattern.

 

See what happens when you include yesterday...and today is also warmer across much of the U.S. The mid month pattern has been more mild than cold for the most part.

 

7dTDeptUS.png

Not that I really care, but why didn't you include Jan 11th in your map?

[Front Ranger]

Not that I really care, but why didn't you include Jan 11th in your map?

 

Because those maps only go back 7 days. It wouldn't change much...the 11th was not a very cold day either for much of the U.S.

 

All I ever said, on Jan 3, was that the LR ensembles were pointing to a +EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern for mid month, which would most likely not be a cold pattern for the vast majority of the U.S. The EPO ended up not being as positive as indicated by the ensembles, but it still ended up being a mild to near normal period for just about everyone. Not cold...and downright ugly for a lot of the country.

 

For some reason, Phil keeps bringing this up, insisting I was wrong.

 

Near 50 currently in DC, lower 40s in Chicago. Mid 50s here. 

[Timmy]

Yeah, cold troughs are the new arctic blast...

I give up, I quit, Our weather sucks, Worst winter ever. BUT hour 384 looks good. There is hope. *rinse repeat*  (are we having fun yet?)            

 

06z hour 384 

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 10.17.57 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has a bunch of 576DM warm rain on Friday and Saturday.  

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF has a bunch of 576DM warm rain on Friday and Saturday.  

Any chance I will be in any sort of a rain shadow? Got a new chainsaw for Christmas and I am anxious to start my spring clean up of my property!

[ShawniganLake]

Any chance I will be in any sort of a rain shadow? Got a new chainsaw for Christmas and I am anxious to start my spring clean up of my property!

Looks like one of those really gross stationary warm front setups.  If its not raining, it will probably be drizzling.

[TT-SEA]

Toasty...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015011912!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

Looks like one of those really gross stationary warm front setups.  If its not raining, it will probably be drizzling.

weekend-rain.png

 

Yep.

[MossMan]

Looks like one of those really gross stationary warm front setups.  If its not raining, it will probably be drizzling.

weekend-rain.png

Well that just sucks.

 

At least today is turning out ok, currently Partly Sunny and 47 degrees.

[FroYoBro]

The GFS shows it getting up to 18 at the 850 level a week from now. 90?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

10 months till winter arrives.  I don't think there will be anything of significance unless we have a SSW event--and the cold dumps on us instead of everyone else.  But the probability of that occurring is not high.

 

Unfortunately, that's our reality for this year.  There is nothing in the models that provide any hope for anything else.  At least,with the old GFS, there was always hope at 384 hours.  The upgrades have eliminated much of the wishcasting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF has a bunch of 576DM warm rain on Friday and Saturday.

very Mediterranean

[HighlandExperience]

The GFS shows it getting up to 18 at the 850 level a week from now. 90?

 

If we are going to torch, lets do this right. 

[Front Ranger]

very Mediterranean

 

More sub-tropical.

 

Portland = the new Miami?

[BLI snowman]

I truly can't recall the last winter where subfreezing 850mb temps were so hard to come by. Maybe 2002-03, but I think that one was a little cooler for the mountains. 

[antipex]

Tendencies are tendencies. We live in a maritime climate, no s**t. If there were weenies around in 1862 I guarantee there would have still been some measure of angst, anxiety and immaturity about marine influence during cold events. Everything is relative to the climate you live in. 100 years from now there's a good chance people will look back at winter 2013-14, long for the old days of winter brutality and completely gloss over the fact the following summer, fall and winter were rather warm.

 

 

Not a major revelation. Just something I've gradually made peace with.

 

And I don't see how saying our climate is moving in a Mediterranean direction is such a stretch when you already acknowledge it has some Mediterranean tendencies.

 

Most level-headed guy in the room.

 

 

Technically we are in a Mediterranean climate categorised as Csb in the Köppen climate classification system. It's similar to parts of NW Spain. Our type of climate is characterised by mild wet winters and warm dry summers. The dry warm season distinction is fairly unique as far as climates go, and it's something you don't generally see in marine-type climates (Cfb, Cfc, etc...).

[richard mann]

I'[m] presum[ing that] you['d] intended to type [the word] "wish" [here above,] instead of "would"[. This o]r [either] something [other] along those lines[.]

Nope. .. no mistake. .Just a more formal usage of the words, or phrase more, "would that".

— If somewhat less strict, in line with your pondering here above perhaps, "if only" more.

 

http://theweatherfor...west/?p=64314

[richard mann]

This month has seemed quiet thus far.

 

Set in context, and looked at along together with some of what you've posted inferred otherwise more since the beginning of this month—in most part in response to others' perceptions of the of shape of things more current to this point this month .. perhaps approaching "angst" more, ...

 

.. As with the Seahawks game and their (insert appropriate adjective here.) comeback yesterday, it would certainly be good to see things balance out, post this month's end.

[Jesse]

I truly can't recall the last winter where subfreezing 850mb temps were so hard to come by. Maybe 2002-03, but I think that one was a little cooler for the mountains.

It's getting pretty crazy. Definitely a top warm winter in the upper levels thus far.

[Front Ranger]

I truly can't recall the last winter where subfreezing 850mb temps were so hard to come by. Maybe 2002-03, but I think that one was a little cooler for the mountains. 

 

Of course, they are sub-freezing right now. And were also with the big dump the mountains got last week.

 

 

[Jesse]

Tendencies are tendencies. We live in a maritime climate, no s**t. If there were weenies around in 1862 I guarantee there would have still been some measure of angst, anxiety and immaturity about marine influence during cold events. Everything is relative to the climate you live in. 100 years from now there's a good chance people will look back at winter 2013-14, long for the old days of winter brutality and completely gloss over the fact the following summer, fall and winter were rather warm.

So lower our standards basically? Done and done.

[Jesse]

Of course, they are sub-freezing right now. And were also with the big dump the mountains got last week.

 

 

Cherrypick and mate!

[Deweydog]

So lower our standards basically? Done and done.

Compared to 1862?

[Front Ranger]

Cherrypick and mate!

 

I'm cherry picking current conditions? Ok.

[Front Ranger]

It's getting pretty crazy. Definitely a top warm winter in the upper levels thus far.

 

You sure about that? If we're counting November, and that's definitely a winter month in the mountains, 2004-05, 1991-92, 1980-81, and 1957-58 will be tough to beat.

 

Government Camp was actually right around average for Nov/Dec.

[BLI snowman]

Of course, they are sub-freezing right now. And were also with the big dump the mountains got last week.

 

get_orig_img.png

 

Yes, coldest in several weeks and coldest for at least a couple weeks to come.

 

You know, it's OK if you call a spade a spade once in awhile. 

[Deweydog]

I'm cherry picking current conditions? Ok.

Hmmmm... if this were a considerably cold winter thus far in the upper levels and someone made mention of it would you be so quick to point out not so cold current conditions? I suspect the answer is yes.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, coldest in several weeks and coldest for at least a couple weeks to come.

 

You know, it's OK if you call a spade a spade once in awhile. 

 

Too soon to say they are the coldest in several weeks to come.

 

I'm calling a spade a spade - there's a bit too much hyperbole going around right now. Has it been a dry/warmish/mostly uneventful winter so far? Yes. Has it been a top warm winter for the upper levels/mountains? No, it's not in the same league as the winters I mentioned above.

[BLI snowman]

You sure about that? If we're counting November, and that's definitely a winter month in the mountains, 2004-05, 1991-92, 1980-81, and 1957-58 will be tough to beat.

 

Government Camp was actually right around average for Nov/Dec.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6898

 

On pace to be the warmest January on record at Paradise. After last year of course. 10 degrees above average through today.

 

How again is that not historic?

[Front Ranger]

Hmmmm... if this were a considerably cold winter thus far in the upper levels and someone made mention of it would you be so quick to point out not so cold current conditions? I suspect the answer is yes.

 

I thought it was ironic that he chose to say that now, as 850 temps are below 0.

[BLI snowman]

Too soon to say they are the coldest in several weeks to come.

 

I'm calling a spade a spade - there's a bit too much hyperbole going around right now. Has it been a dry/warmish/mostly uneventful winter so far? Yes. Has it been a top warm winter for the upper levels/mountains? No, it's not in the same league as the winters I mentioned above.

 

Care to offer statistical proof of that? Just because you say it, doesn't make it true.

 

I would venture to guess that through today, it's probably pretty similar to all of those winters temp-wise from an upper level standpoint. 

 

And the next two weeks will be ridgy and mild, as evidenced by every forecasting model and signal right now.

[Front Ranger]

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6898

 

On pace to be the warmest January on record at Paradise. After last year of course. 10 degrees above average through today.

 

How again is that not historic?

 

The statement was made that it's been a top-warm winter in the upper levels so far. January has been very warm, Nov/Dec not so much. 

 

At Paradise, 2004, 2002, 1989, 1976, and several other years were much warmer than Nov/Dec 2014.

[BLI snowman]

I thought it was ironic that he chose to say that now, as 850 temps are below 0.

 

Your agenda is pretty transparent.

[Front Ranger]

Care to offer statistical proof of that? Just because you say it, doesn't make it true.

 

 

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. People are throwing around unsubstantiated claims.