January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Goodie for Alaska... I know that Arctic waves are very unusual for them during the winter. I hope they are prepared... 

 

Yes, Alaska is colder than WA. Have a gold star.

 

However, they've been "roasting" relatively speaking most of this cold season. That has begun to change recently as the tendency for full amplitude west coast ridging has weakened, and most models are now pointing to another significant cold period upcoming.

[Front Ranger]

That's a completely different pattern than anything we have had lately.

 

Granted it's 10 days out and there is tons of model disagreement right now.

 

Yeah, the models were in lock step from about Jan 10 on showing mostly endless ridging for quite awhile. At least that has changed.

 

Now back to your regularly scheduled "Woe is our winter" posts.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the models were in lock step from about Jan 10 on showing mostly endless ridging for quite awhile. At least that has changed.

 

Now back to your regularly scheduled "Woe is our winter" posts.

You are my true north.

[BLI snowman]

It was more the common theme of: things have been this way, so they'll stay this way. The Juneau forecaster assumed that, and so are a lot of people on here. That's all.

 

Sorry, but that Juneau forecaster is clearly a gigantic knob. 

[TT-SEA]

Going to get wet next week.

 

My sincere hope is for a ridiculously wet and stormy February and March.    Nothing would make me happier.   Because if that does not happen then it almost certainly will happen from April - June.   

[bainbridgekid]

Going to get wet next week.

 

My sincere hope is for a ridiculously wet and stormy February and March.    Nothing would make me happier.   Because if that does not happen then it almost certainly will happen from April - June.   

This kind of logic makes no sense to me.

 

Why take a 100% chance of a crappy February and March just to possibly increase the chance of a nicer April-June?

 

And I'm really not at all convinced that a crappy February and March would even significantly effect the chances for April-June. I know we did some statistical analysis of this stuff a couple years ago and there was really no correlation.

[TT-SEA]

This kind of logic makes no sense to me.

 

Why take a 100% chance of a crappy February and March just to possibly increase the chance of a nicer April-June?

 

And I'm really not at all convinced that a crappy February and March would even significantly effect the chances for April-June. I know we did some statistical analysis of this stuff a couple years ago and there was really no correlation.

 

 

I know.   I am just thinking there has to be a stormy period eventually and would rather take it now when it can help the mountain snowpack and not ruin spring.      Probably has no basis in reality but things go in cycles and we are due for a stormy cycle based on my knowledge of this climate.  

[luminen]

Remember March and June 2012? 

[westcoastexpat]

Unreal cold in the western Arctic (Alaska, Yukon) on the 12Z Euro. I haven't seen a mass of purple like that in a long time for that side of the Arctic.

 

Could be VERY interesting for this sub forum come mid month.

[snow_wizard]

Unreal cold in the western Arctic (Alaska, Yukon) on the 12Z Euro. I haven't seen a mass of purple like that in a long time for that side of the Arctic.

 

Could be VERY interesting for this sub forum come mid month.

If the ECMWF is right about it getting epically cold in Alaska I would have some hope for us. That would represent a huge change in cold air placement from what it has been this entire season.

[snow_wizard]

Totally amazing we finally managed to have an inversion last through the entire day today. Seems to be about the only way to get a below normal day right now.

[ShawniganLake]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302154_jan30a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302155_jan30b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302157_jan30c.png

[snow_wizard]

 

 

That sure doesn't match what the operational ECMWF has been showing. I will say I would surprised it Feb ends up that lame.

[ShawniganLake]

That sure doesn't match what the operational ECMWF has been showing. I will say I would surprised it Feb ends up that lame.

Sure, the Euro weeklies could be wrong. Mark Nelsen posted them last night. They basically show West coast ridging, with deep troughing to our west and east.

 

This is probably the week with the most potential

 

[Deweydog]

Why on earth is "Nelsen" so hard????

[Poulsbo Snowman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302154_jan30a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302155_jan30b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302157_jan30c.png

You should change that legend to "Week of Dec 1 to March 1"

[ShawniganLake]

Why on earth is "Nelsen" so hard????

Fixed. I am generally pretty happy if someone can spell my last name within one letter of being correct.

[Deweydog]

Fixed. I am generally pretty happy if someone can spell my last name within one letter of being correct.

I suppose I am a little sensitive to it as I have a last name which also has common alternate spellings.

[Front Ranger]

You are my true north.

 

You are my sunshine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a last name that no one can spell or pronounce.

[Front Ranger]

Why on earth is "Nelsen" so hard????

 

He and his warm bias are really enjoying this month?

[Dan the Weatherman]

I know.   I am just thinking there has to be a stormy period eventually and would rather take it now when it can help the mountain snowpack and not ruin spring.      Probably has no basis in reality but things go in cycles and we are due for a stormy cycle based on my knowledge of this climate.  

The entire West Coast is due for a stormy cycle that brings good snowfall to the mountains. This endless ridging pattern has got to end at some point I would think.

[Dan the Weatherman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302154_jan30a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302155_jan30b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01302157_jan30c.png

I just don't see that forecast verifying, especially how dry January has been across much of CA. The Bay Area has had next to nothing in terms of rainfall for the month, and I can't fathom that continuing for the entire month of February. If that does come to pass, there is really something totally out of whack in the weather patterns!

[Bryant]

I'm watching Asia for a potential Western trough around Feb 13th-15th via the typhoon rule. The below would correlate to the US 6-10 days later resulting in a Western trough / Eastern ridge. Still too far out in time to use as a solid reference. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/0SbhV5p.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One year January will strike and everyone will be stunned when we acually get a real winter here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I remember as a kid sledding every year. We always had sleds ready to go.

[HighlandExperience]

Unreal cold in the western Arctic (Alaska, Yukon) on the 12Z Euro. I haven't seen a mass of purple like that in a long time for that side of the Arctic.

 

Could be VERY interesting for this sub forum come mid month.

 

Exciting times possibly. Don't want to get too excited though. I for sure thought we would be nailed at the beginning of January. Things fall apart quick around here. 

[GHweatherChris]

Totally amazing we finally managed to have an inversion last through the entire day today. Seems to be about the only way to get a below normal day right now.

I guess I will never understand how fake cold is even remotely interesting.

[stuffradio]

Timed just right when I am leaving the country. Nice.

Is the company I know you work for shipping you off to Europe?

[Deweydog]

I remember as a kid sledding every year. We always had sleds ready to go.

We have sleds in our garage, so we always have sleds ready to go. Also, you probably only remember sledding during the winters with sledable snowfalls as without sledable snow sledding sucks.

[Deweydog]

You are my sunshine.

We had quite a bit of it this month.

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian is not sold on an active pattern in the long range...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[HighlandExperience]

00Z Canadian is not sold on an active pattern in the long range...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

I'd be depressed.

[Tyler Mode]

It was an amazing day hiking through and above the inversion today!

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Lost-Lake-Butte-13015

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Lost-Lake-Butte-13015/i-khDhWQD/0/M/179.%20G%20Mt.%20Hood%20Above%20Fog%20Sharp%20BW-M.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Lost-Lake-Butte-13015/i-PTf8dr7/0/M/122.%20G%20Forest%20Rays-M.jpg

 

Lots of rime ice down in the fog...

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Lost-Lake-Butte-13015/i-jtmGWQw/0/M/310.%20G%20Rime%20on%20Hemlock%20Branches%20Sharp-M.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Lost-Lake-Butte-13015/i-8Chhjt9/0/M/326.%20G%20Rime%20on%20Hemlock%20Needles%20Close%20BW-M.jpg

[Front Ranger]

We had quite a bit of it this month.

So I heard. Was it loud sunshine or quiet? There's a lot riding on this.

[Front Ranger]

00Z Canadian is not sold on an active pattern in the long range...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

The Canadian has sucked deflated balls lately.

[Deweydog]

So I heard. Was it loud sunshine or quiet? There's a lot riding on this.

Don't be dumb.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is on board with Alaska turning insanely cold during week two. In fact some of the colder air even works it's way into the

NW with 850s dropping to -4 or so. It's a start.

[snow_wizard]

It appears this will end up somewhere between the 4th and 6th warmest Jan on record for SEA. At least that's better than October and December.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks pretty wet for the latter part of next week. Mild too.