Sven Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z gfs PAR-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_mw_9.pngC'mon baby little further southeast.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 DSM GFS 18Z Data--GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DSM LAT= 41.53 LON= -93.65 ELE= 965 18Z JAN04 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 18Z 04-JAN -14.3 -16.2 1034 52 55 539 514 MON 00Z 05-JAN -15.1 -18.6 1039 68 69 0.00 540 512 MON 06Z 05-JAN -15.4 -19.8 1041 71 63 0.00 541 510 MON 12Z 05-JAN -16.5 -17.8 1041 85 48 0.00 545 515 MON 18Z 05-JAN -11.6 -13.2 1036 71 97 0.00 550 523 TUE 00Z 06-JAN -10.6 -15.5 1026 96 99 0.35 548 528 TUE 06Z 06-JAN -9.5 -11.3 1024 96 47 0.11 544 526 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Those runs of the GFS were not very pleasant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Gfs=medium range to me. Not too concerned what it shows 24hrs out. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Could change for better or worse, but I'm thinking 4-6 for DBQ right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Could change for better or worse, but I'm thinking 4-6 for DBQ right now.You should be good to go. Good safe spot to be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 You should be good to go. Good safe spot to beMPX still saying 4-6", for our area... you think that's overdone?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 DSM metro may be split. NE side near Ankeny and Altoona may be 8"+, SW side near WDM and Waukee closer to 4-6" and the airport and downtown in between. Latest Cobb spits out 9.1" (GFS) and 5.3" (NAM) for the airport. Going to be a close one! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 MPX still saying 4-6", for our area... you think that's overdone??Where are u? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 P&c has me in 3"-7" range which is a fair estimate. See how it plays out in the next 24hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrowIf it doesn't shift north on tonight's 00Z runs I think the track is set. I don't see this shifting farther south, but I guess that is possible as well. My guess is Central Iowa is going to be in the jackpot when this is all said and done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 ABC 7 showed the snow totals using the NAM and it had 8 inches for ORD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Look at this puppy in the far nw usa and sw canada.http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/WV500MB.GIF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrow12z tomorrow? Dang, the Warning kicks in tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. I would think 0z it should be sampled. But I've heard sampling isnt gonna mean much with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z tomorrow? Dang, the Warning kicks in tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. I would think 0z it should be sampled. But I've heard sampling isnt gonna mean much with this system.No I think what he meant was that the "wait till its fully sampled" talk doesn't mean much because it won't be fully sampled till it's pretty much here anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Look at this puppy in the far nw usa and sw canada.http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/WV500MB.GIFPretty cool picture. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I still don't see a puppy in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Where are u?Red Wing, about 30 miles Northeast of Rochester. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 4-6 is probably high there I would guess about 2 right now but let's weight to see 0z guidance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I still don't see a puppy in there.The clipper vort max is the lower WV swath north of the moisture.Another look from 12z:Â http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2015010412.Aoa.naconf.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 0z guidance will set the tone I think. Only thing that could change the storms trajectory further north if it is stronger. I think the heaviest axis of snow will be from up by James to the Quad Cities to Kankakee. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodyErvin Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 New to the forums here. Reporting in from the eastern Nebraska area and watching this system closely. For now it obviously looks to scrape us and we look to be on about as best edge as you can make here. Though any slight shift south and Boom, could see a couple inches.  Looks like central Iowa will be the show on this one. A good 6-10" out there seems probable with someone picking up those 9" and 10" amounts in the heaviest bands. A pretty good pocket of moisture and lift developing and sitting right in there.http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/CGP/namCGP_700_vvel_030.gif Quote Follow Me on my Nebraska/Iowa Storm Chasing and Storm Analysis Facebook Page "Tonight's forecast: Dark." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I still don't see a puppy in there.LMAO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I still don't see a puppy in there.Was I the only one who got it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 All I want tonight is a Winter Storm Warning and a Hawks win! Â That would cap off the weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll be happy with a solid 3" out of it. But anymore is greatly appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Glad at least a couple people got the joke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Srefs still going to be the best model for chi town peeps. Lessens totals up here though as expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Glad at least a couple people got the joke I laughed so hard when you made the joke and in response Snowman posts 500 hPa Heights/Absolute Vorticity lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF is still North Lock it in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF is still North Lock t in! Consistent. But probably out of.line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Consistent. But probably out of.lineOh I know, it's my lost piece of hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Consistent. But probably out of.lineIt's likely too far north still, but usually when we're less than 24 hours from an event they're fairly accurate. Lets see what the 0Z NAM does... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Â Â Very generous. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-14-0-90599800-1420421568.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-14-0-69070900-1420421575.gif Very generous.D**n, thats way north than any of the models.  I'm curious if the mountain "torque" may throw a curve ball in the modeling for tonight's 00z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I laughed so hard when you made the joke and in response Snowman posts 500 hPa Heights/Absolute Vorticity lol.Hahahahhaha I was like...uhhh.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sref track has really stayed the same totals probably drop a bit but that's probably the amped out solutions going back to reality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just thought I would see what you guys think, but how does a flight landing tomorrow at 10:25 p.m. at Midway fare in all of this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just thought I would see what you guys think, but how does a flight landing tomorrow at 10:25 p.m. at Midway fare in all of this?Not very good although wind may not be an issue. Visibility will be if northern solution verifies especially Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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