February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

What was the status of the 18z GFS run? I am just wondering if it was suppressed. Either way, there's still a long time to go!

It's still showing a system, but doesn't really get it's act together.  If we can get the northern stream to back off a bit and allow SLP to organize in the Plains (like last nights 00z GFS run) then a lot of ppl on this forum would benefit from a significant system.

 

Notice the jet stream structure on the 12z Euro and how it has the cut-off system near the Baja.  The models had a real tough time trying to figure what to do with that energy with the Super Bowl system until 3-4 days out.  BTW, this energy is currently in the Pacific where there isn't much data anyway.  I'm thinking the models are over powering the northern piece of energy and suppressing the storm from developing.

 

The AO is forecast to dip near neutral which would provide some blocking and allow the system to potentially slow/dig earlier in the Plains.  

 

I find it ironic that the GGEM showed a Blizzard 7 days before the Super Bowl system and was the first model to see that storm.  Last night's GFS run showed a Blizzard (ironically 7 days before this potential storm) and it has been one of the more consistent models showing this storm.  I wonder which model scores a coupe with this system.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I bet this storm is a MSP special. Absolutely no way this would whiff us to the south.

 

After you just got blasted with this last storm, your statement is pretty laughable, more likely I think that you get whiffed just south than this being an MSP special, they've had awful luck this year.  I'm saying that and I don't even live there.

[Maxim]

After you just got blasted with this last storm, your statement is pretty laughable, more likely I think that you get whiffed just south than this being an MSP special, they've had awful luck this year.  I'm saying that and I don't even live there.

Dude, it doesn't matter that they've had "awful luck" this year. Every set-up is different, and every storm system will do their own thing, regardless of how the season has been thus far. I mean, come on; who would have even thought that O'Hare would get nearly 20 inches from the last storm? Despite how abysmal (relative to expectations) this winter had been prior to the big storm, we still got blasted with heavy snow and high winds. In my opinion, what's more laughable was your DAB call for your backyard a few days before the system ended up dumping 12" near your area.

 

Anyway, I only suggested the possibility of this storm being an MSP special due to the fact that the +NAO and +AO will be present still around that time. And also after seeing a couple model runs hint toward a northern solution with this system. However, after analyzing some more data, I realized that my MSP special call probably won't come to fruition due to the -EPO and +PNA. But with both the NAO and AO being positive, this system really won't get suppressed too much. Honestly, nobody knows what this system will do; if it even does end up forming.

[bud2380]

Check out the 12z cmc ensemble control.

 

[Geos]

Seems like Boston is in the same position as the Lower Great Lakes was last winter - the big winning area of the 13-14 winter. Wouldn't be all surprised if they end up better than 120" for the season.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Dude, it doesn't matter that they've had "awful luck" this year. Every set-up is different, and every storm system will do their own thing, regardless of how the season has been thus far. I mean, come on; who would have even thought that O'Hare would get nearly 20 inches from the last storm? Despite how abysmal (relative to expectations) this winter had been prior to the big storm, we still got blasted with heavy snow and high winds. In my opinion, what's more laughable was your DAB call for your backyard a few days before the system ended up dumping 12" near your area.

 

Anyway, I only suggested the possibility of this storm being an MSP special due to the fact that the +NAO and +AO will be present still around that time. And also after seeing a couple model runs hint toward a northern solution with this system. However, after analyzing some more data, I realized that my MSP special call probably won't come to fruition due to the -EPO and +PNA. But with both the NAO and AO being positive, this system really won't get suppressed too much. Honestly, nobody knows what this system will do; if it even does end up forming.

 

Right, it was honestly hard to see my area cashing in a few days prior to the last event as I went with seasonal trends.  I was wrong, life goes on.

[Snowshoe]

Love waking up to a WWA text message! 2-4" with more to the north.

[winterfreak]

Models trended away from a storm in a hurry.

[james1976]

major cold pushing it off to the south. so it looks like we get cold and dry.

[Hawkeye]

major cold pushing it off to the south. so it looks like we get cold and dry.

 

Yeah, the north flow blasting through us on the GFS would have to back off a bit.  Otherwise, moisture will never get up here.

[Tom]

Yeah, the north flow blasting through us on the GFS would have to back off a bit.  Otherwise, moisture will never get up here.

Yup, timing is going to end up being everything with this situation.  Hoping the model bias of progressing the cold to fast works in our favor and slows as we get closer.  Although, today's 12z GFS run starting to show signs of developing a storm system in the southern Plains and with a HP off the east coast, maybe it can cut the storm ENE in future runs.  

 

Hey Bud, can you post the 00z GGEM ensembles off of Instant WxMaps?  00z Euro Ensembles still showing nice hits for the Central CONUS.

[Tom]

12z GGEM looking better and develops SLP near Amarillo, TX and heads East.  Although, it is a step in the right direction, it leaves behind that southern piece in the 4 corners.  If both pieces of energy phase into 1 piece in the Plains, it can blow up into a very big storm.  The GGEM also is slower with the progression of the northern jet.

 

Interesting to see this model trending towards what a lot of the Euro Ensembles have been showing for days now.  I can see this storm trend towards a Cutter in the coming days.

[Tom]

Just look at the differences showing up from last nights 00z run compared to today's 12z run....the model is trending phasing both pieces better each run over the last 5 in a row.

[BLIZZARD09]

Isn't that something. NOW, after most of the snow from the big blizzard has ended we are going into an extended siberian eXpress pattern.

[Tom]

I'm sure there will be some interesting 12z GGEM ensembles showing up today.  If anyone can post them later, please do.  I don't have access to Instant Wx Maps.

[Money]

Shows several monsters can't post maps on my phone but has couple sub 990 lows up near Chicago and lower michigan

[Tony]

12z Gem ensembles attached.

[Tony]

Another view of the Canadian. Baby stepping in the right direction just like the SB storm. I think we are in a good position right now especially if it phases it will come a lot further north.

[Tom]

12z Gem ensembles attached.

Wow, there are some impressive ensemble members showing up.  My gut feeling was to always follow the ensembles and not the operational in this very complicated pattern, especially when your having to deal with multiple pieces of energy/phasing/timing, etc.

[winterfreak]

Wow that would be a record breaker here. Waiting for the inevitable north trend lol.

[Tom]

The PNA will be transitioning from its sky high positive stage which has kept such a deep trough in the Northeast in recent days.  One would imagine that during this transition, the SE ridge may be strong enough to allow the system to cut NE.

[Tony]

Is it possible that this system might have the same or even more juice to work with as our last system...just thinking out loud. Man, there is going to be a very tight temperature gradient with this making it a fairly explosive storm if everything comes together just right. Starting to get excited again especially since the GEM was a good model for the SB storm.

[Tom]

Is it possible that this system might have the same or even more juice to work with as our last system...just thinking out loud. Man, there is going to be a very tight temperature gradient with this making it a fairly explosive storm if everything comes together just right. Starting to get excited again especially since the GEM was a good model for the SB storm.

Anytime you have systems coming out of the SW, the GOM should be your friend.  This has the looks of another classic winter storm for the Central CONUS.  Arctic air crashing south down into the Plains, GOM wide open for business, jet stream at its peak intensity during this time of year, and of course the all important Storm Track.

 

It's funny that the GFS hinted at a major storm Sunday night, backed off, now the GGEM is inching towards the GFS's Sunday night solution.

[Money]

GFS ensembles looked a lot better

[Tom]

We'll see in a bit what the 12z Euro has in store...

[Tom]

Snow depth down to around 6" around here.  All the higher ratio snows that fell from the Super Bowl storm got nuked from those warm temps.  Now the snow pack feels like a solid ice glacier.  Wouldn't mind to get another 6"+ storm to build it back up.

[Seahawkfan]

Ya our Snow pack took a major hit down to around 3 inches. The melting should be done for awhile as temperature look to stay on the chilly side. G.F.S Still looks nearly bone dry. Tuesday storm still Mia

[Tony]

GFS ensembles looked a lot better

You are correct. Here are a couple for our viewing pleasure

[Tom]

12z Euro slowing the progression of the arctic front and allows the storm to pull up more moisture this run into the Plains/Midwest.  However, still looks disorganized this far out.  Not a bad trend today in the models.

 

From nothing to something on the 12z Euro...

[Tony]

The Euro has been the last to the party lately so at least like you said Tom, something better than nothing.

 

Oz runs should be interesting.

[Money]

Man what a political mess going on in WI now

[Tom]

The Euro has been the last to the party lately so at least like you said Tom, something better than nothing.

 

Oz runs should be interesting.

It's crazy to see the Euro playing catch up this season.  The model is supposed to be under going some major updating right about now or sometime this month.

[Tony]

After comparing the Euro and the GEM, it looks like the Euro has the precip farther north but the GEM shows a slightly stronger SLP otherwise both have taken a step in the right direction.

[Tom]

After comparing the Euro and the GEM, it looks like the Euro has the precip farther north but the GEM shows a slightly stronger SLP otherwise both have taken a step in the right direction.

Nice comparisons...that HP off the East Coast should be our friend.  If the models continue to slow the progression of the arctic front, it will allow the system to develop more in the Plains.  The evolution of the models slowing the progression of the arctic air is a great sign and we saw this in the modeling with the Super Bowl storm.

[winterfreak]

Slowing progression of artic air= blizzard for Chicago and 33 with rain central plains. Superbowl storm redux? Hopefully not in the temperature department.

[Tony]

Thought I would post the JMA just to show the strength of the SLP.

[Tony]

Anytime you have systems coming out of the SW, the GOM should be your friend.  This has the looks of another classic winter storm for the Central CONUS.  Arctic air crashing south down into the Plains, GOM wide open for business, jet stream at its peak intensity during this time of year, and of course the all important Storm Track.

 

It's funny that the GFS hinted at a major storm Sunday night, backed off, now the GGEM is inching towards the GFS's Sunday night solution.

Tom, you are right about that GOM being wide open for business. Looking at the 12z maps today there should be abundant moisture with this system. 

[Tom]

The 12z JMA is a thing of beauty...monster Plains/Lower Lakes Cutter...for a model to see this amount of precip is a good signal.  JMA did very well with the Super Bowl storm and it hasn't budged with this system.  It forms a SLP in the CO/KS/TX region and heads due East first, then cuts ENE up the OV.

[Tony]

Since we're posting maps, Euro Ensemble Mean northwest of operational which is a very good sign.

 

Edit: Kinda looks like the JMA

[Niko]

Felt like Spring today. Even though temps were in the low 30s, it was beautiful. Plenty of snowpack also.